Issued 2026-09-16 at $104.82 · now $104.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FORM has typically landed between $83.08 and $136.31 — a range of −20.7% to +30.0% from the issuance price $104.82.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($104.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FORM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $104.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $104.82 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $106.65 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $97.23–$116.08
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $83.08–$136.31
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-29 | −42.1% | −42.1% | +10.9% |
| 2020-02-13 | −38.2% | −38.2% | +0.0% |
| 2010-04-23 | −36.3% | −36.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-20 | +54.0% | −0.9% | +56.2% |
| 2025-10-01 | +53.1% | −1.5% | +53.1% |
| 2025-12-18 | +51.7% | +0.0% | +51.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
−0.6%
n=20
Feb
55%
+2.1%
n=20
Mar
60%
+1.6%
n=20
Apr
40%
−1.1%
n=20
May
65%
+6.2%
n=20
Jun
55%
+4.1%
n=20
Jul
45%
−3.3%
n=20
Aug
45%
−2.4%
n=20
Sep
55%
+2.0%
n=20
Oct
40%
−1.1%
n=20
Nov
60%
+5.5%
n=20
Dec
60%
+2.7%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | STEVEN-WAISS KELLEY | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $96.10 | $202K | −7.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 5,535 @ $132.50 | $733K | −1.1% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 484,890 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 3,282 @ $130.54 | $428K | −0.7% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 491,550 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 2,892 @ $129.55 | $375K | −0.6% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 494,832 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 2,482 @ $128.72 | $319K | −0.5% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 497,724 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 1,125 @ $131.65 | $148K | −0.2% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 490,425 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 686 @ $133.33 | $91K | −0.1% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 484,204 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 1,650 @ $117.39 | $194K | −0.4% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 432,456 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 1,041 @ $116.56 | $121K | −0.2% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 434,106 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 868 @ $121.30 | $105K | −0.2% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 430,412 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 706 @ $118.21 | $83K | −0.2% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 431,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 300 @ $120.58 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 431,280 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 170 @ $119.08 | $20K | −0.0% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 431,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | St Dennis Thomas | director | Sale | 2,800 @ $151.49 | $424K | −8.8% of holding | −29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 4,220 @ $121.72 | $514K | −1.0% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 439,276 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $122.63 | $307K | −0.6% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 436,776 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 1,629 @ $123.37 | $201K | −0.4% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 435,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 1,399 @ $117.70 | $165K | −0.3% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 445,638 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 975 @ $121.00 | $118K | −0.2% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 443,496 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 767 @ $119.00 | $91K | −0.2% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 444,871 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 400 @ $119.46 | $48K | −0.1% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 444,471 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Rhodes Sheri | director | Sale | 6,328 @ $125.40 | $794K | −54.1% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,375 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Obregon-Jimenez Rebeca | director | Sale | 3,828 @ $126.47 | $484K | −32.7% of holding | +12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,875 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | WHITE BRIAN C | director | Sale | 3,250 @ $126.00 | $410K | −27.3% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,653 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | St Dennis Thomas | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $115.84 | $116K | −3.0% of holding | +25.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | STEVEN-WAISS KELLEY | director | Sale | 5,400 @ $125.60 | $678K | −17.7% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,179 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | Titinger Jorge | director | Sale | 4,009 @ $128.78 | $516K | −22.9% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 2,984 @ $124.71 | $372K | −0.7% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 451,491 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 1,388 @ $125.58 | $174K | −0.3% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 450,103 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $123.72 | $161K | −0.3% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 454,475 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 702 @ $136.15 | $96K | −0.2% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 447,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 700 @ $129.33 | $91K | −0.2% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 448,205 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 700 @ $128.52 | $90K | −0.2% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 448,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 700 @ $122.84 | $86K | −0.2% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 455,775 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 398 @ $126.59 | $50K | −0.1% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 449,705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 200 @ $132.63 | $27K | −0.0% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 447,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 200 @ $130.57 | $26K | −0.0% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 448,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 100 @ $127.47 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 449,605 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 66 @ $135.73 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 447,739 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 5,432 @ $128.56 | $698K | −1.2% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 450,332 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-15 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 2,369 @ $127.65 | $302K | −0.5% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 455,764 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-15 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 1,826 @ $125.24 | $229K | −0.4% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 459,033 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-15 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 900 @ $126.58 | $114K | −0.2% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 458,133 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-15 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 767 @ $129.22 | $99K | −0.2% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 449,565 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 5,495 @ $95.21 | $523K | −1.2% of holding | +35.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 463,691 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 2,832 @ $95.73 | $271K | −0.6% of holding | +35.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 460,859 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $94.10 | $179K | −0.4% of holding | +35.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 469,186 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Sale | 3,462 @ $90.42 | $313K | −23.7% of holding | +23.6% | −2.4% | 11,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | WHITE BRIAN C | director | Sale | 2,300 @ $100.01 | $230K | −17.9% of holding | +11.6% | −4.9% | 10,556 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 4,934 @ $93.97 | $464K | −1.0% of holding | +4.3% | +8.8% | 473,982 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 2,896 @ $94.79 | $275K | −0.6% of holding | +4.3% | +8.8% | 471,086 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Sale | 834 @ $92.85 | $77K | −0.2% of holding | +4.3% | +8.8% | 478,916 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-11 | BREWER KEVIN J | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $96.20 | $289K | −27.0% of holding | −2.1% | +24.0% | 8,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Rhodes Sheri | director | Sale | 7,634 @ $92.61 | $707K | −42.4% of holding | −1.5% | +25.8% | 10,356 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | St Dennis Thomas | director | Sale | 5,601 @ $93.71 | $525K | −14.4% of holding | −1.5% | +25.8% | 33,356 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | STEVEN-WAISS KELLEY | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $93.70 | $206K | −6.7% of holding | −1.5% | +25.8% | 30,579 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | St Dennis Thomas | director | Sale | 1,830 @ $94.24 | $172K | −5.5% of holding | −1.5% | +25.8% | 31,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | WHITE BRIAN C | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $90.95 | $500K | −30.0% of holding | −0.7% | +16.0% | 12,856 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Obregon-Jimenez Rebeca | director | Sale | 2,770 @ $95.82 | $265K | −21.1% of holding | −0.7% | +16.0% | 10,356 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Titinger Jorge | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $88.84 | $178K | −10.3% of holding | −0.7% | +16.0% | 17,498 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
152 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Withheld for tax | 78,908 | 497,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Withheld for tax | 3,288 | 500,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Option exercise | 141,792 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Option exercise | 141,792 | 576,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Option exercise | 5,908 | 503,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Award / grant | 141,792 | 141,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Option exercise | 5,908 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Withheld for tax | 3,357 | 434,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 274 | 14,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Option exercise | 1,099 | 14,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Option exercise | 6,031 | 438,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Option exercise | 6,031 | 48,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Award / grant | 27,696 | 27,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Award / grant | 6,924 | 6,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Option exercise | 1,099 | 9,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Withheld for tax | 2,028 | 432,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 130 | 13,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Option exercise | 521 | 2,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Option exercise | 521 | 13,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Option exercise | 3,644 | 434,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Option exercise | 3,644 | 14,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | St Dennis Thomas | director | Gift | 740 | 28,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 193 | 12,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Option exercise | 773 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Option exercise | 773 | 13,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | WHITE BRIAN C | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 11,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | STEVEN-WAISS KELLEY | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 26,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Rhodes Sheri | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 11,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Obregon-Jimenez Rebeca | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 11,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | St Dennis Thomas | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 32,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Titinger Jorge | director | Award / grant | 1,347 | 14,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Withheld for tax | 3,288 | 456,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Option exercise | 5,908 | 5,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Option exercise | 5,908 | 459,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Withheld for tax | 3,357 | 453,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 274 | 12,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Option exercise | 6,031 | 457,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | SLESSOR MIKE | director | Option exercise | 6,031 | 54,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Option exercise | 1,099 | 10,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | McKinnis Aric Brendan | officer | Option exercise | 1,099 | 12,630 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.