Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.07 · now $4.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FOCL has typically landed between $3.16 and $5.20 — a range of −22.5% to +27.7% from the issuance price $4.07.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,001 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FOCL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.07 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.99 (-2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.54–$4.44
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.16–$5.2
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2014-07-08 | −73.5% | −73.5% | +0.0% |
| 2014-07-14 | −73.4% | −74.7% | +0.0% |
| 2014-07-11 | −73.1% | −74.2% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-08-12 | +259.2% | −0.8% | +259.2% |
| 2009-08-13 | +254.3% | +0.0% | +262.0% |
| 2009-08-14 | +229.2% | +0.0% | +259.2% |
5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | WILLSEY LANCE | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $4.75 | $238K | +4.0% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,291,780 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Rhodes Ryan | director | Purchase | 21,000 @ $4.75 | $100K | +3.5% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 626,649 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Schulz Fran | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.75 | $48K | +196.1% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,100 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Shah Sanket | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $4.75 | $24K | +7.4% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.