Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.53 · now $14.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FOA has typically landed between $10.82 and $20.15 — a range of −25.6% to +38.6% from the issuance price $14.53.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,842 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-04-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FOA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.53 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.9 (-4.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.15–$15.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.82–$20.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,842 windows spanning 2019-04-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-10-10 | −38.0% | −38.0% | +8.5% |
| 2022-05-26 | −36.5% | −36.5% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-02 | −36.5% | −36.5% | +4.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-10-18 | +146.6% | −3.0% | +146.6% |
| 2024-10-21 | +119.4% | +0.0% | +154.2% |
| 2024-10-11 | +101.6% | −0.9% | +101.6% |
1,842 overlapping windows · 2019-04-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
29%
−1.1%
n=7
Feb
29%
−7.6%
n=7
Mar
0%
−9.2%
n=7
Apr
57%
+0.9%
n=7
May
50%
+1.1%
n=8
Jun
63%
+1.1%
n=8
Jul
63%
+3.5%
n=8
Aug
25%
−9.3%
n=8
Sep
38%
+3.3%
n=8
Oct
43%
−1.5%
n=7
Nov
43%
+3.8%
n=7
Dec
71%
+8.5%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $16.82 | $101K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 167,856 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Sieffert Kristen N | officer | Sale | 750 @ $17.55 | $13K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 124,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $19.87 | $119K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 173,856 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $21.73 | $130K | −3.2% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,856 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $22.26 | $134K | −3.1% of holding | −22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 185,856 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Sieffert Kristen N | officer | Sale | 750 @ $23.61 | $18K | −0.6% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $25.60 | $154K | −3.0% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,856 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Sieffert Kristen N | officer | Sale | 750 @ $27.36 | $21K | −0.6% of holding | −18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 126,262 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $25.34 | $152K | −2.9% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,856 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 8,860 @ $20.49 | $181K | −4.2% of holding | +23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 203,856 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 8,252 @ $19.55 | $161K | −3.7% of holding | +44.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 212,716 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Sieffert Kristen N | officer | Sale | 750 @ $19.64 | $15K | −0.6% of holding | +44.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,012 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $19.68 | $118K | −2.6% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 220,968 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 5,228 @ $21.39 | $112K | −2.3% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 226,968 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Sieffert Kristen N | officer | Sale | 750 @ $19.54 | $15K | −0.6% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,762 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $23.01 | $138K | −2.5% of holding | −24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 232,196 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 5,228 @ $17.83 | $93K | −2.1% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 238,196 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Sieffert Kristen N | officer | Sale | 750 @ $16.63 | $12K | −0.6% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $17.50 | $105K | −3.5% of holding | +18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,294 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | SAFRA EDMOND | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 75,000 @ $17.67 | $1.3M | +16.8% of holding | +20.0% | −29.9% | 520,188 | Form 4 · filed 102 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | SAFRA EDMOND | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $16.44 | $822K | +12.7% of holding | +22.8% | −22.8% | 445,188 | Form 4 · filed 105 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Engel Matthew A | officer | Purchase | 10,600 @ $16.45 | $174K | +46.4% of holding | +22.8% | −22.8% | 33,436 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | COOPERMAN LEON G | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 28 @ $16.10 | $451 | +0.0% of holding | +22.8% | −22.8% | 1,267,718 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Sieffert Kristen N | officer | Sale | 750 @ $18.82 | $14K | −0.9% of holding | −8.3% | −19.7% | 78,799 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BTO Urban Holdings L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,404,961 @ $10.00 | $24.0M | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,404,961 @ $10.00 | $24.0M | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - U - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,404,961 @ $10.00 | $24.0M | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,208,126 @ $10.00 | $12.1M | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - U - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,208,126 @ $10.00 | $12.1M | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BTO Urban Holdings L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,208,126 @ $10.00 | $12.1M | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BTO Urban Holdings L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 385,855 @ $10.00 | $3.9M | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - U - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 385,855 @ $10.00 | $3.9M | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 385,855 @ $10.00 | $3.9M | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BTO Urban Holdings L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,805 @ $10.00 | $138K | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,805 @ $10.00 | $138K | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - U - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,805 @ $10.00 | $138K | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - U - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,161 @ $10.00 | $22K | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BTO Urban Holdings L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,161 @ $10.00 | $22K | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,161 @ $10.00 | $22K | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BTO Urban Holdings L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1 @ $0.00 | $0 | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1 @ $0.00 | $0 | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - U - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1 @ $0.00 | $0 | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Sieffert Kristen N | officer | Sale | 750 @ $23.32 | $17K | −0.9% of holding | −20.3% | −9.7% | 79,549 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Thornock Tai A. | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $24.58 | $27K | −9.4% of holding | −7.2% | −15.1% | 10,650 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Sieffert Kristen N | officer | Sale | 750 @ $24.18 | $18K | −0.9% of holding | +1.7% | +8.7% | 80,299 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Thornock Tai A. | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $23.04 | $25K | −8.6% of holding | +3.4% | −25.4% | 11,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - U - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,404,961 @ $10.00 | $24.0M | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 2,404,961 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,404,961 @ $10.00 | $24.0M | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 2,404,961 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | BTO Urban Holdings L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,404,961 @ $10.00 | $24.0M | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 2,404,961 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - U - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,208,126 @ $10.00 | $12.1M | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 1,208,126 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | BTO Urban Holdings L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,208,126 @ $10.00 | $12.1M | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 1,208,126 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,208,126 @ $10.00 | $12.1M | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 1,208,126 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - U - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 385,855 @ $10.00 | $3.9M | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 385,855 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 385,855 @ $10.00 | $3.9M | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 385,855 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | BTO Urban Holdings L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 385,855 @ $10.00 | $3.9M | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 385,855 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,806 @ $10.00 | $138K | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 13,805 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | BTO Urban Holdings L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,806 @ $10.00 | $138K | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 13,805 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - U - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,806 @ $10.00 | $138K | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 13,805 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | BTO Urban Holdings L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,161 @ $10.00 | $22K | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 2,161 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates - NQ L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,161 @ $10.00 | $22K | −50.0% of holding | −1.2% | −22.4% | 2,161 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
170 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | West Lance | director | Award / grant | 5,094 | 5,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Pratcher Tyson Anwar | director | Award / grant | 5,094 | 5,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | LIBMAN BRIAN L | director | Award / grant | 5,094 | 5,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Gardner Cory | director | Award / grant | 5,094 | 5,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Essex Andrew | director | Award / grant | 5,094 | 5,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Corio Norma | director | Award / grant | 5,094 | 5,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gardner Cory | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | LIBMAN BRIAN L | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Corio Norma | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Essex Andrew | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Pratcher Tyson Anwar | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | West Lance | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | LIBMAN BRIAN L | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 35,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | LIBMAN BRIAN L | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 35,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | West Lance | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 26,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Essex Andrew | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 4,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Corio Norma | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 31,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Pratcher Tyson Anwar | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 26,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gardner Cory | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 4,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Essex Andrew | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 4,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gardner Cory | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 4,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Pratcher Tyson Anwar | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 26,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Corio Norma | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 31,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | West Lance | director | Option exercise | 4,570 | 26,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Withheld for tax | 30,401 | 225,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Fleming Graham | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,246 | 273,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,387 | 189,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Prahm Jeremy | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,029 | 243,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sieffert Kristen N | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,946 | 114,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Fleming Graham | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,453 | 292,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sieffert Kristen N | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,167 | 129,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Fleming Graham | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,633 | 233,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sieffert Kristen N | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,893 | 87,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Engel Matthew A | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,049 | 50,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Engel Matthew A | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,354 | 40,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Thornock Tai A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,523 | 19,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Richmond Lauren | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,023 | 37,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Thornock Tai A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,377 | 13,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Richmond Lauren | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,181 | 31,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Thornock Tai A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,153 | 21,957 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.