FND · TickerCove

FNDFloor & Decor Holdings, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvementas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $45.97 · now $45.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FND has typically landed between $37.32 and $54.95 — a range of −18.8% to +19.5% from the issuance price $45.97.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,339 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-04-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($45.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$45.97 · 5% of range

$43.49 low$89.74 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.6%

typical move · IQR 17.3%

−18.8%worst (p90)+19.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FND has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $45.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $45.97 (+0.0%)
typical $45.24 (-1.6%)
middle 50% $41.26–$49.23
90% range $37.32–$54.95

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,339 windows spanning 2017-04-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−50.2%	−52.9%	+0.1%
2020-02-18	−48.9%	−48.9%	+8.5%
2020-03-05	−48.7%	−48.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-03	+57.4%	+0.0%	+58.2%
2020-04-01	+48.0%	−4.6%	+51.0%
2020-04-24	+42.5%	+0.0%	+42.5%

2,339 overlapping windows · 2017-04-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

44%

+4.2%

n=9

Feb

67%

+2.5%

n=9

Mar

56%

−6.1%

n=9

Apr

56%

+4.5%

n=9

May

50%

−1.2%

n=10

Jun

80%

+4.7%

n=10

Jul

50%

+4.3%

n=10

Aug

70%

+1.5%

n=10

Sep

40%

−3.7%

n=10

Oct

22%

−6.2%

n=9

Nov

89%

+7.8%

n=9

Dec

56%

+2.2%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-07	TAYLOR THOMAS V	director	Sale	218,189 @ $62.30	$13.6M	−48.7% of holding	−22.6%	not yet — horizon still open	229,820	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-04	SAYMAN ERSAN	officer	Sale	15,200 @ $48.28	$734K	−17.5% of holding	−2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	71,676	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-04	PAULSEN BRADLEY	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $50.25	$251K	+6.2% of holding	−2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	85,010	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-04	LANGLEY BRYAN	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $48.69	$122K	+6.3% of holding	−2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	42,016	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-03	PAULSEN BRADLEY	director	Purchase	4,786 @ $60.27	$288K	+19.0% of holding	+11.1%	−22.5%	30,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-03	PAULSEN BRADLEY	director	Purchase	214 @ $60.25	$13K	+0.9% of holding	+11.1%	−22.5%	25,214	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-07	Adamson John J	officer	Sale	4,240 @ $79.22	$336K	−19.6% of holding	+7.5%	−22.8%	17,347	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

106 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-07	TAYLOR THOMAS V	director	Option exercise	218,189	448,009	Form 4
2026-08-07	TAYLOR THOMAS V	director	Option exercise	185,310	0	Form 4
2026-08-07	TAYLOR THOMAS V	director	Option exercise	32,879	0	Form 4
2026-08-06	TAYLOR THOMAS V	director	Gift	16,969	16,969	Form 4
2026-08-05	Adamson John J	officer	Withheld for tax	907	21,592	Form 4
2026-05-18	LANGLEY BRYAN	officer	Option exercise	1,159	43,175	Form 4
2026-05-18	LANGLEY BRYAN	officer	Option exercise	1,159	0	Form 4
2026-05-05	PAULSEN BRADLEY	director	Withheld for tax	2,461	82,549	Form 4
2026-05-04	SAYMAN ERSAN	officer	Option exercise	28,320	86,876	Form 4
2026-05-04	SAYMAN ERSAN	officer	Option exercise	28,320	0	Form 4
2026-02-27	TAYLOR THOMAS V	director	Withheld for tax	10,262	193,238	Form 4
2026-02-27	TAYLOR THOMAS V	director	Withheld for tax	2,870	203,500	Form 4
2026-02-27	Christopherson David Victor	officer	Withheld for tax	1,219	24,860	Form 4
2026-02-27	Christopherson David Victor	officer	Withheld for tax	575	26,079	Form 4
2026-02-27	SAYMAN ERSAN	officer	Withheld for tax	540	51,239	Form 4
2026-02-27	DENNY STEVEN ALAN	officer	Withheld for tax	539	19,131	Form 4
2026-02-27	LANGLEY BRYAN	officer	Withheld for tax	273	28,811	Form 4
2026-02-27	LANGLEY BRYAN	officer	Withheld for tax	270	28,541	Form 4
2026-02-27	Adamson John J	officer	Withheld for tax	254	17,377	Form 4
2026-02-27	DENNY STEVEN ALAN	officer	Withheld for tax	218	19,670	Form 4
2026-02-27	SAYMAN ERSAN	officer	Withheld for tax	218	51,779	Form 4
2026-02-26	TAYLOR THOMAS V	director	Withheld for tax	3,016	206,370	Form 4
2026-02-26	Christopherson David Victor	officer	Withheld for tax	704	26,654	Form 4
2026-02-26	SAYMAN ERSAN	officer	Withheld for tax	340	51,997	Form 4
2026-02-26	LANGLEY BRYAN	officer	Withheld for tax	319	29,084	Form 4
2026-02-26	DENNY STEVEN ALAN	officer	Withheld for tax	276	19,888	Form 4
2026-02-26	Adamson John J	officer	Withheld for tax	154	17,631	Form 4
2026-02-24	TAYLOR THOMAS V	director	Withheld for tax	3,593	196,849	Form 4
2026-02-24	Christopherson David Victor	officer	Withheld for tax	1,329	24,672	Form 4
2026-02-24	LANGLEY BRYAN	officer	Withheld for tax	837	26,961	Form 4
2026-02-24	DENNY STEVEN ALAN	officer	Withheld for tax	695	18,210	Form 4
2026-02-24	SAYMAN ERSAN	officer	Withheld for tax	693	50,383	Form 4
2026-02-24	Adamson John J	officer	Withheld for tax	253	17,094	Form 4
2026-02-24	Christopherson David Victor	officer	Award / grant	2,686	27,358	Form 4
2026-02-24	Adamson John J	officer	Award / grant	691	17,785	Form 4
2026-02-24	SAYMAN ERSAN	officer	Award / grant	1,954	52,337	Form 4
2026-02-24	TAYLOR THOMAS V	director	Award / grant	12,537	209,386	Form 4
2026-02-24	DENNY STEVEN ALAN	officer	Award / grant	1,954	20,164	Form 4
2026-02-24	PAULSEN BRADLEY	director	Award / grant	7,940	37,940	Form 4
2026-02-24	LANGLEY BRYAN	officer	Award / grant	2,442	29,403	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i