FNBF.N.B. Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.89 · now $17.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FNB has typically landed between $16.01 and $20.38 — a range of −10.5% to +13.9% from the issuance price $17.89.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FNB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$16.01worst · -10.5%$20.38best · +13.9%
  • now $17.89 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.05–$18.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.01–$20.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−51.4%−51.4%+2.2%
2020-02-21−49.7%−52.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−42.4%−52.4%+0.0%
3 best
2008-08-20+52.8%−2.2%+52.8%
2009-02-20+49.8%−6.5%+49.8%
2008-08-19+49.2%−4.6%+49.2%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
−0.8%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.3%
n=19
Mar
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Apr
42%
+0.4%
n=19
May
42%
−1.5%
n=19
Jun
63%
−0.0%
n=19
Jul
47%
+2.2%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.9%
n=19
Sep
47%
+1.7%
n=19
Oct
56%
+2.5%
n=18
Nov
78%
+5.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$19$142026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $78K — David Bryant Mitchell2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $352K — GUERRIERI GARY L2025-12-10: 1 insider sale, $265K — GUERRIERI GARY L2025-12-02: 1 insider sale, $670K — Dutey James L2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $935K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $352K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $78K↑ buys↓ salesofficer David Bryant Mitchell — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer GUERRIERI GARY L — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed same dayofficer GUERRIERI GARY L — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dutey James L — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06David Bryant MitchellofficerSale4,055 @ $19.25$78K−2.7% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open144,283Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-12GUERRIERI GARY LofficerSale19,000 @ $18.53$352K−6.0% of holding+0.3%not yet — horizon still open298,097Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-10GUERRIERI GARY LofficerSale15,000 @ $17.67$265K−5.1% of holding−3.5%−0.8%279,883Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-02Dutey James LofficerSale40,000 @ $16.75$670K−44.5% of holding+2.9%−4.0%49,936Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-19MOTLEY DAVID LdirectorSale15,000 @ $15.51$233K−18.7% of holding−4.2%−0.3%65,344Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05CAMPBELL WILLIAM BdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $15.57$47K+1.9% of holding−6.9%−9.5%158,834Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-06DELIE VINCENT J JRdirectorSale125,000 @ $16.50$2.1M−7.0% of holding−8.6%−13.1%1,652,229Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

93 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-06Nicholas Heidi AdirectorAward / grant5,02786,677Form 4
2026-05-06Mencini Frank CdirectorAward / grant5,027108,824Form 4
2026-05-06STANIK JOHN SdirectorAward / grant5,027109,212Form 4
2026-05-06CHIAFULLO JAMES DdirectorAward / grant5,027153,742Form 4
2026-05-06MALONE DAVID JdirectorAward / grant5,027149,431Form 4
2026-05-06MOTLEY DAVID LdirectorAward / grant4,74876,636Form 4
2026-05-06STRIMBU WILLIAM JdirectorAward / grant4,748161,381Form 4
2026-05-06DELIE VINCENT J JRdirectorAward / grant4,7482,114,330Form 4
2026-05-06Dively Mary JodirectorAward / grant4,74891,206Form 4
2026-05-06Bena Pamela AdirectorAward / grant4,74892,341Form 4
2026-05-06CAMPBELL WILLIAM BdirectorAward / grant279165,916Form 4
2026-05-06Mencini Frank CdirectorWithheld for tax200103,797Form 4
2026-03-18DELIE VINCENT J JRdirectorAward / grant227,9192,222,274Form 4
2026-03-18DELIE VINCENT J JRdirectorWithheld for tax99,1232,123,151Form 4
2026-03-18Calabrese Vincent JofficerAward / grant63,833884,457Form 4
2026-03-18GUERRIERI GARY LofficerAward / grant39,093328,669Form 4
2026-03-18David Bryant MitchellofficerAward / grant30,280162,880Form 4
2026-03-18Calabrese Vincent JofficerWithheld for tax27,762856,695Form 4
2026-03-18ORIE JAMESofficerAward / grant23,615159,910Form 4
2026-03-18DELIE VINCENT J JRdirectorWithheld for tax13,5692,109,582Form 4
2026-03-18David Bryant MitchellofficerWithheld for tax13,170149,710Form 4
2026-03-18Dutey James LofficerAward / grant11,71663,849Form 4
2026-03-18ORIE JAMESofficerWithheld for tax10,271149,639Form 4
2026-03-18GUERRIERI GARY LofficerWithheld for tax10,204318,465Form 4
2026-03-18Dutey James LofficerWithheld for tax4,86258,987Form 4
2026-03-18Calabrese Vincent JofficerWithheld for tax3,193853,502Form 4
2026-03-18David Bryant MitchellofficerWithheld for tax1,517148,193Form 4
2026-03-18ORIE JAMESofficerWithheld for tax1,431148,208Form 4
2026-03-18GUERRIERI GARY LofficerWithheld for tax1,368317,097Form 4
2026-03-18Dutey James LofficerWithheld for tax59758,390Form 4
2026-02-18DELIE VINCENT J JRdirectorAward / grant83,4991,979,528Form 4
2026-02-18Calabrese Vincent JofficerAward / grant20,628814,736Form 4
2026-02-18GUERRIERI GARY LofficerAward / grant11,860289,338Form 4
2026-02-18David Bryant MitchellofficerAward / grant9,030132,417Form 4
2026-02-18ORIE JAMESofficerAward / grant8,911135,277Form 4
2026-02-18Cho Alfred D.officerAward / grant8,91143,010Form 4
2026-02-18Dutey James LofficerAward / grant3,58752,061Form 4
2026-01-20DELIE VINCENT J JRdirectorWithheld for tax14,4461,895,770Form 4
2026-01-20Calabrese Vincent JofficerWithheld for tax3,710794,108Form 4
2026-01-20GUERRIERI GARY LofficerWithheld for tax1,477277,303Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-09$1–15K
Christopher L. JacobsHousepurchase2022-07-282022-06-21$15–50K
Donna ShalalaHousesale2020-04-272019-05-15$1–15K
Donna ShalalaHousepurchase2020-04-272019-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-11-092018-10-25$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2016-05-252016-04-06$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2016-03-182016-02-19$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.