Issued 2026-09-16 at $392.68 · now $392.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FN has typically landed between $327.47 and $499.65 — a range of −16.6% to +27.2% from the issuance price $392.68.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,048 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-06-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($392.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $392.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $392.68 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $399.7 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $363.3–$436.1
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $327.47–$499.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,048 windows spanning 2010-06-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2011-07-08 | −45.9% | −45.9% | +0.0% |
| 2011-09-27 | −41.7% | −41.7% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-01 | −40.6% | −40.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2010-07-20 | +45.2% | −8.7% | +45.2% |
| 2010-07-15 | +44.7% | −7.3% | +44.7% |
| 2010-07-16 | +44.0% | −8.6% | +44.0% |
4,048 overlapping windows · 2010-06-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
63%
+2.9%
n=16
Feb
69%
+5.0%
n=16
Mar
44%
−2.3%
n=16
Apr
38%
−0.1%
n=16
May
69%
+2.3%
n=16
Jun
75%
+5.8%
n=16
Jul
53%
+0.0%
n=17
Aug
59%
+2.8%
n=17
Sep
41%
+2.5%
n=17
Oct
44%
−0.5%
n=16
Nov
81%
+10.4%
n=16
Dec
50%
+3.2%
n=16
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Sale | 1,420 @ $385.58 | $548K | −14.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,087 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Sale | 1,080 @ $386.34 | $417K | −13.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,007 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Bahrami Homa | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $711.91 | $1.8M | −13.3% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,233 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-25 | KELLY THOMAS F | director | Sale | 770 @ $622.47 | $479K | −4.0% of holding | −4.1% | −48.2% | 18,411 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | KELLY THOMAS F | director | Sale | 610 @ $624.76 | $381K | −3.3% of holding | −4.1% | −48.2% | 17,681 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | KELLY THOMAS F | director | Sale | 350 @ $625.52 | $219K | −2.0% of holding | −4.1% | −48.2% | 17,331 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | KELLY THOMAS F | director | Sale | 120 @ $623.29 | $75K | −0.7% of holding | −4.1% | −48.2% | 18,291 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Knight Darlene S. | director | Sale | 500 @ $482.11 | $241K | −15.7% of holding | −2.5% | +14.4% | 2,684 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | KELLY THOMAS F | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $464.14 | $1.0M | −10.5% of holding | +0.2% | +23.6% | 18,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Knight Darlene S. | director | Sale | 500 @ $472.00 | $236K | −13.6% of holding | +0.2% | +23.6% | 3,184 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Bahrami Homa | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $453.75 | $1.6M | −16.0% of holding | +0.7% | +49.8% | 18,316 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-26 | Grady Seamus | director | Sale | 12,740 @ $446.45 | $5.7M | −29.0% of holding | +3.6% | +26.4% | 31,254 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Grady Seamus | director | Sale | 6,420 @ $448.36 | $2.9M | −21.4% of holding | +3.6% | +26.4% | 23,573 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Grady Seamus | director | Sale | 2,030 @ $445.38 | $904K | −4.4% of holding | +3.6% | +26.4% | 43,994 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Grady Seamus | director | Sale | 1,261 @ $447.36 | $564K | −4.0% of holding | +3.6% | +26.4% | 29,993 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Adarkar Prabir | officer | Sale | 8,694 @ $272.68 | $2.4M | −0.9% of holding | +16.1% | +72.7% | 916,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Adarkar Prabir | officer | Sale | 4,318 @ $270.50 | $1.2M | −0.5% of holding | +16.1% | +72.7% | 928,729 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Adarkar Prabir | officer | Sale | 3,785 @ $273.39 | $1.0M | −0.4% of holding | +16.1% | +72.7% | 913,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Adarkar Prabir | officer | Sale | 3,149 @ $271.28 | $854K | −0.3% of holding | +16.1% | +72.7% | 925,580 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Adarkar Prabir | officer | Sale | 1,983 @ $274.68 | $545K | −0.2% of holding | +16.1% | +72.7% | 911,118 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Adarkar Prabir | officer | Sale | 1,539 @ $275.27 | $424K | −0.2% of holding | +16.1% | +72.7% | 909,579 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Adarkar Prabir | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $269.07 | $296K | −0.1% of holding | +16.1% | +72.7% | 933,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Adarkar Prabir | officer | Sale | 400 @ $267.98 | $107K | −0.0% of holding | +16.1% | +72.7% | 934,147 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Knight Darlene S. | director | Sale | 479 @ $366.00 | $175K | −11.5% of holding | −4.0% | +37.2% | 3,684 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Gill Harpal | officer | Sale | 14,203 @ $355.15 | $5.0M | −50.4% of holding | −2.3% | +30.9% | 13,983 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-04 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Sale | 1,533 @ $354.88 | $544K | −17.7% of holding | −2.3% | +30.9% | 7,144 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-04 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $353.68 | $460K | −13.0% of holding | −2.3% | +30.9% | 8,677 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-04 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Sale | 500 @ $355.33 | $178K | −7.0% of holding | −2.3% | +30.9% | 6,644 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-02 | Olson Rollance E. | director | Sale | 8,700 @ $334.11 | $2.9M | −37.5% of holding | +5.9% | +60.3% | 14,501 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Olson Rollance E. | director | Sale | 300 @ $334.56 | $100K | −2.1% of holding | +5.9% | +60.3% | 14,201 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Sale | 2,325 @ $334.98 | $779K | −17.6% of holding | +6.5% | +60.9% | 10,852 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Sale | 875 @ $335.54 | $294K | −8.1% of holding | +6.5% | +60.9% | 9,977 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | Sverha Csaba | officer | Sale | 7,981 @ $349.59 | $2.8M | −37.0% of holding | −0.1% | +57.4% | 13,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | Sverha Csaba | officer | Sale | 5,019 @ $350.27 | $1.8M | −37.0% of holding | −0.1% | +57.4% | 8,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Grady Seamus | director | Sale | 3,513 @ $328.00 | $1.2M | −6.3% of holding | +5.4% | +57.5% | 52,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Grady Seamus | director | Sale | 2,949 @ $330.36 | $974K | −5.9% of holding | +5.4% | +57.5% | 47,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Grady Seamus | director | Sale | 1,751 @ $329.50 | $577K | −3.4% of holding | +5.4% | +57.5% | 50,273 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Knight Darlene S. | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $335.13 | $402K | −22.4% of holding | +5.4% | +57.5% | 4,163 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Grady Seamus | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $331.35 | $331K | −2.1% of holding | +5.4% | +57.5% | 46,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Grady Seamus | director | Sale | 300 @ $333.12 | $100K | −0.6% of holding | +5.4% | +57.5% | 46,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Sverha Csaba | officer | Sale | 6,058 @ $310.96 | $1.9M | −21.3% of holding | +14.2% | +88.7% | 22,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Sverha Csaba | officer | Sale | 3,151 @ $309.88 | $976K | −10.0% of holding | +14.2% | +88.7% | 28,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Sverha Csaba | officer | Sale | 791 @ $311.70 | $247K | −3.5% of holding | +14.2% | +88.7% | 21,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Gill Harpal | officer | Sale | 18,675 @ $240.00 | $4.5M | −50.8% of holding | +15.3% | +71.5% | 18,068 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-13 | Olson Rollance E. | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $223.98 | $560K | −9.7% of holding | +10.2% | +80.6% | 23,201 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
75 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Grady Seamus | director | Withheld for tax | 2,943 | 48,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Gill Harpal | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,840 | 20,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 849 | 9,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Sverha Csaba | officer | Withheld for tax | 321 | 16,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Grady Seamus | director | Withheld for tax | 1,821 | 51,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Gill Harpal | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,168 | 21,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 550 | 10,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Sverha Csaba | officer | Withheld for tax | 217 | 17,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Grady Seamus | director | Withheld for tax | 2,044 | 53,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Gill Harpal | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,123 | 23,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 546 | 10,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sverha Csaba | officer | Withheld for tax | 213 | 17,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Gill Harpal | officer | Award / grant | 4,271 | 24,170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Award / grant | 2,024 | 11,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Grady Seamus | director | Award / grant | 22,479 | 55,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sverha Csaba | officer | Award / grant | 2,698 | 17,523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Grady Seamus | director | Withheld for tax | 10,806 | 32,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Gill Harpal | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,933 | 19,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,263 | 9,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Sverha Csaba | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,286 | 14,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Award / grant | 3,056 | 9,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Archer Edward T. | officer | Award / grant | 2,991 | 12,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Gill Harpal | officer | Award / grant | 6,493 | 20,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Gill Harpal | officer | Award / grant | 6,356 | 26,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Grady Seamus | director | Award / grant | 10,121 | 33,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Grady Seamus | director | Award / grant | 9,908 | 43,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Sverha Csaba | officer | Award / grant | 3,820 | 12,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Sverha Csaba | officer | Award / grant | 3,739 | 16,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | KELLY THOMAS F | director | Gift | 150 | 17,181 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | KELLY THOMAS F | director | Award / grant | 417 | 19,181 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | LEVINSON FRANK H | director | Award / grant | 417 | 7,021 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Bahrami Homa | director | Award / grant | 417 | 18,733 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Dowling Caroline | director | Award / grant | 417 | 510 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | ALEXANDER FORBES I J | director | Award / grant | 417 | 1,773 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | KELLY THOMAS F | director | Gift | 25 | 18,764 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-03 | Olson Rollance E. | director | Gift | 70 | 14,131 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Adarkar Prabir | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 934,547 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Adarkar Prabir | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 138,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-13 | Dowling Caroline | director | Award / grant | 93 | 93 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-05 | KELLY THOMAS F | director | Gift | 480 | 20,989 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-04 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-04-08 | 2026-03-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | sale | 2025-08-12 | 2024-01-04 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | purchase | 2025-07-30 | 2023-01-03 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2024-09-16 | 2024-08-27 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2024-09-16 | 2024-08-27 | $50–100K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | sale | 2024-01-26 | 2023-12-22 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2023-12-09 | 2023-11-22 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2023-12-09 | 2023-11-01 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.