Issued 2026-09-16 at $121.02 · now $121.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FMX has typically landed between $107.91 and $135.36 — a range of −10.8% to +11.8% from the issuance price $121.02.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($121.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FMX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $121.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $121.02 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $122.37 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $115.65–$129.08
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $107.91–$135.36
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −50.7% | −50.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −48.6% | −48.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −43.4% | −43.4% | +0.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-11-02 | +47.0% | +0.0% | +47.0% |
| 2020-10-30 | +43.4% | −0.5% | +45.4% |
| 2009-03-05 | +41.4% | +0.0% | +41.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | KAHN MICHAEL DAVID | director | Purchase | 2,100 @ $118.13 | $248K | ownership Δ n/a | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Spas Montesinos Constantino | director | Sale | 7,481 @ $12.38 | $93K | −5.1% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,253 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | garza garza Alfonso | director | Sale | 52,311 @ $11.19 | $585K | −4.4% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,128,453 | Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | garza garza Alfonso | director | Sale | 52,316 @ $11.04 | $578K | −4.2% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,180,764 | Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | garza garza Alfonso | director | Sale | 52,316 @ $11.07 | $579K | −4.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,233,080 | Form 4 · filed 16 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | garza garza Alfonso | director | Sale | 52,316 @ $10.79 | $565K | −3.9% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,285,396 | Form 4 · filed 17 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | garza garza Alfonso | director | Sale | 52,316 @ $10.31 | $539K | −3.8% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,337,712 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | garza garza Alfonso | director | Sale | 52,316 @ $10.26 | $537K | −3.6% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,390,028 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | garza garza Alfonso | director | Sale | 52,316 @ $10.56 | $552K | −3.5% of holding | +2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,442,344 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | garza garza Alfonso | director | Sale | 52,316 @ $10.60 | $554K | −3.4% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,494,660 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.