FMNBFarmers National Banc Corp.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.68 · now $15.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FMNB has typically landed between $14.12 and $17.70 — a range of −10.0% to +12.9% from the issuance price $15.68.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FMNB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$14.12worst · -10.0%$17.7best · +12.9%
  • now $15.68 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.62 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.81–$16.44
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.12–$17.7
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−31.7%−31.7%+0.0%
2020-02-13−29.8%−29.8%+1.5%
2008-11-28−29.2%−29.2%+0.7%
3 best
2011-01-10+51.0%+0.0%+51.0%
2011-01-12+41.9%+0.0%+41.9%
2009-03-04+41.3%+0.0%+41.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+0.3%
n=20
Feb
55%
+2.9%
n=20
Mar
65%
+1.3%
n=20
Apr
50%
+1.5%
n=20
May
60%
−0.1%
n=20
Jun
80%
+1.6%
n=20
Jul
25%
−2.1%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.9%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.9%
n=20
Oct
30%
−2.3%
n=20
Nov
75%
+2.9%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$16$122026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $80K — Wenick Mark J2026-06-22: 1 insider sale, $331K — Voinovich Michael C2026-03-26: 2 insider purchases, $973K — Varischetti Nicholas D …2026-03-19: 1 insider purchase, $5K — Richardson Gina A2026-03-05: 1 insider purchase, $16K — Richardson Gina A2026-03-03: 1 insider purchase, $510K — Muransky Edward2026-02-02: 1 insider purchase, $195 — Wallace Amber B2026-01-02: 1 insider purchase, $187 — Wallace Amber B2025-10-30: 1 insider purchase, $24K — Richardson Gina A2025-10-24: 1 insider purchase, $999K — Muransky Edward2025-10: 2 open-market purchases, $1.0M2026-01: 1 open-market purchase, $1872026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $1952026-03: 5 open-market purchases, $1.5M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $331K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $80K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Wenick Mark J — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed same daydirector Voinovich Michael C — Sale on 2026-06-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Varischetti Nicholas D — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Varischetti Nicholas D — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Richardson Gina A — Purchase on 2026-03-19, filed same daydirector Richardson Gina A — Purchase on 2026-03-05, filed same daydirector Muransky Edward — Purchase on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Wallace Amber B — Purchase on 2026-02-02, filed 22 days after the tradeofficer Wallace Amber B — Purchase on 2026-01-02, filed 53 days after the tradedirector Richardson Gina A — Purchase on 2025-10-30, filed same daydirector Muransky Edward — Purchase on 2025-10-24, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06Wenick Mark JofficerSale5,000 @ $15.97$80K−13.5% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open32,020Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-22Voinovich Michael CdirectorSale23,309 @ $14.21$331K−100.0% of holding+4.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-26Varischetti Nicholas DdirectorPurchase73,000 @ $12.97$947K+47.5% of holding−2.2%not yet — horizon still open226,751Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-26Varischetti Nicholas DdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $12.90$26K+0.9% of holding−2.2%not yet — horizon still open228,751Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-19Richardson Gina AdirectorPurchase441 @ $12.43$5K+2.9% of holding+3.1%not yet — horizon still open15,807Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-05Richardson Gina AdirectorPurchase1,231 @ $12.91$16K+8.7% of holding+8.4%+10.6%15,305Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-03Muransky EdwarddirectorPurchase40,000 @ $12.74$510K+25.6% of holding+5.4%+5.8%196,020Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02Wallace Amber BofficerPurchase15 @ $13.02$195+0.0% of holding+3.2%+14.4%55,829Form 4 · filed 22 days after the trade
2026-01-02Wallace Amber BofficerPurchase14 @ $13.35$187+0.0% of holding−1.8%+0.8%55,814Form 4 · filed 53 days after the trade
2025-10-30Richardson Gina AdirectorPurchase1,833 @ $12.99$24K+15.3% of holding+4.2%+3.3%13,823Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-24Muransky EdwarddirectorPurchase73,500 @ $13.59$999K+197.5% of holding−1.0%+2.5%110,706Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-05Richardson Gina AdirectorPurchase2,334 @ $13.75$32K+30.9% of holding−1.8%+2.9%9,896Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-31MACALI RALPH DdirectorSale14,300 @ $14.00$200K−22.6% of holding+5.5%−5.9%48,983Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-02Sabat Joseph WofficerPurchase88 @ $14.26$1K+0.3% of holding−2.5%+0.3%30,019Form 4 · filed 91 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-08Muransky EdwarddirectorAward / grant1,606198,467Form 4
2026-05-08CULP CARL DdirectorAward / grant1,60669,171Form 4
2026-05-08Thornton AndredirectorAward / grant1,60621,602Form 4
2026-05-08Varischetti Nicholas DdirectorAward / grant1,6063,384Form 4
2026-05-08Voinovich Michael CdirectorAward / grant1,60613,271Form 4
2026-05-08Paull David ZdirectorAward / grant1,60655,377Form 4
2026-05-08BESTIC GREGORY CdirectorAward / grant1,606106,305Form 4
2026-05-08DiGeronimo Kevin AdirectorAward / grant1,60615,078Form 4
2026-05-08Monaco Frank JdirectorAward / grant1,60628,325Form 4
2026-05-08Richardson Gina AdirectorAward / grant1,60617,412Form 4
2026-05-08KABACK NEIL JdirectorAward / grant1,60632,902Form 4
2026-05-08Moore Terry AdirectorAward / grant1,60669,664Form 4
2026-03-11Helmick Kevin JdirectorGift3,000157,636Form 4
2026-03-11Helmick Kevin JdirectorGift1,00014,137Form 4
2026-03-11Helmick Kevin JdirectorGift1,00014,102Form 4
2026-02-24Wenick Mark JofficerAward / grant2,89137,020Form 4
2026-02-24Adair Alan TroyofficerAward / grant3,50626,225Form 4
2026-02-24Helmick Kevin JdirectorAward / grant8,842160,636Form 4
2026-02-24Wallace Amber BofficerAward / grant2,92961,815Form 4
2026-02-24Matuszak Michael EofficerAward / grant3,37917,078Form 4
2026-02-20Helmick Kevin JdirectorAward / grant24,134165,702Form 4
2026-02-20Helmick Kevin JdirectorWithheld for tax13,908151,794Form 4
2026-02-20Adair Alan TroyofficerAward / grant8,91731,202Form 4
2026-02-20Adair Alan TroyofficerWithheld for tax8,48322,719Form 4
2026-02-20Matuszak Michael EofficerAward / grant8,10017,862Form 4
2026-02-20Wenick Mark JofficerAward / grant7,18337,282Form 4
2026-02-20Wallace Amber BofficerAward / grant5,83961,668Form 4
2026-02-20Matuszak Michael EofficerWithheld for tax4,16313,699Form 4
2026-02-20Wenick Mark JofficerWithheld for tax3,15334,129Form 4
2026-02-20Wallace Amber BofficerWithheld for tax2,78258,886Form 4
2025-12-18CULP CARL DdirectorGift3,00067,565Form 4
2025-12-04Helmick Kevin JdirectorGift4,000141,568Form 4
2025-04-17CULP CARL DdirectorAward / grant1,77870,564Form 4
2025-04-17BESTIC GREGORY CdirectorAward / grant1,778104,699Form 4
2025-04-17KABACK NEIL JdirectorAward / grant1,77831,296Form 4
2025-04-17Muransky EdwarddirectorAward / grant1,778144,388Form 4
2025-04-17Richardson Gina AdirectorAward / grant1,77811,748Form 4
2025-04-17Monaco Frank JdirectorAward / grant1,77826,719Form 4
2025-04-17Moore Terry AdirectorAward / grant1,77865,194Form 4
2025-04-17Thornton AndredirectorAward / grant1,77814,336Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.