FMCFMC Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.80 · now $10.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FMC has typically landed between $8.81 and $12.53 — a range of −18.5% to +16.0% from the issuance price $10.80.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FMC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$8.81worst · -18.5%$12.53best · +16.0%
  • now $10.8 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.68 (-1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.83–$11.52
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.81–$12.53
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-10-22−58.9%−58.9%+3.3%
2025-10-23−57.9%−59.8%+1.1%
2025-10-21−57.6%−57.6%+2.3%
3 best
2020-03-18+44.7%+0.0%+51.3%
2008-10-09+34.8%−8.3%+40.4%
2008-10-10+33.9%−8.7%+39.9%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.6%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.6%
n=19
Mar
58%
+4.8%
n=19
Apr
84%
+3.8%
n=19
May
42%
−0.1%
n=19
Jun
42%
−2.3%
n=19
Jul
68%
+0.8%
n=19
Aug
32%
−2.0%
n=19
Sep
47%
−3.3%
n=19
Oct
44%
−3.2%
n=18
Nov
83%
+4.5%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$39$102026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $16K — Pfeiffer Nicholas2026-03-04: 1 insider purchase, $250K — BARRY MICHAEL F2025-11-13: 1 insider purchase, $96K — Raines John Mitchell2025-11-05: 1 insider purchase, $136K — DAVIDSON CAROL ANTHONY2025-09-29: 1 insider sale, $129K — Scanlan Jacqueline2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $57K — Scanlan Jacqueline2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $57K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $129K2025-11: 2 open-market purchases, $232K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $250K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $16K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Pfeiffer Nicholas — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BARRY MICHAEL F — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Raines John Mitchell — Purchase on 2025-11-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DAVIDSON CAROL ANTHONY — Purchase on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Scanlan Jacqueline — Sale on 2025-09-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Scanlan Jacqueline — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Pfeiffer NicholasofficerSale1,251 @ $12.78$16K−4.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open28,513Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04BARRY MICHAEL FdirectorPurchase18,072 @ $13.83$250K+1157.0% of holding+34.4%not yet — horizon still open19,634Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-13Raines John MitchelldirectorPurchase7,000 @ $13.77$96K+103.2% of holding−5.1%−10.1%13,784Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-05DAVIDSON CAROL ANTHONYdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $13.60$136K+75.6% of holding−1.8%−8.0%23,227Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-29Scanlan JacquelineofficerSale3,790 @ $34.00$129K−10.3% of holding−10.8%−45.7%33,044Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-18Scanlan JacquelineofficerSale1,510 @ $37.49$57K−3.9% of holding−4.3%−68.2%36,834Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05DAVIDSON CAROL ANTHONYdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $37.33$224Kownership Δ n/a+7.8%−14.8%6,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04BRONDEAU PIERRE RdirectorPurchase54,000 @ $35.90$1.9M+22.1% of holding+19.9%−8.2%298,439Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04pereira ronaldoofficerPurchase5,600 @ $35.77$200K+13.0% of holding+19.9%−8.2%48,837Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-27Hugenneyer ThaisaofficerSale4 @ $55.85$223−0.0% of holding−30.9%−29.3%9,002Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-23Reilly Michael FinianofficerSale2,958 @ $55.25$163K−10.4% of holding−29.7%−25.3%25,468Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

206 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-16Raines John MitchelldirectorAward / grant4823,044Form 4
2026-07-16MERKT STEVEN TdirectorAward / grant4115,094Form 4
2026-07-16Verduin PatriciadirectorAward / grant5016,376Form 4
2026-07-16DAVIDSON CAROL ANTHONYdirectorAward / grant8332,574Form 4
2026-07-16CORDEIRO EDUARDO EdirectorAward / grant13141,011Form 4
2026-07-16BARRY MICHAEL FdirectorAward / grant1128,820Form 4
2026-07-16Johnson KLynnedirectorAward / grant18444,535Form 4
2026-07-16Fortmann Kathy LynndirectorAward / grant10123,653Form 4
2026-07-16BRONDEAU PIERRE RdirectorAward / grant44533,913Form 4
2026-06-11BRONDEAU PIERRE RdirectorWithheld for tax34,177533,869Form 4
2026-04-28Pallash Robert CdirectorWithheld for tax18,84341,827Form 4
2026-04-28GREER C SCOTTdirectorWithheld for tax1,03273,568Form 4
2026-04-28Oevrum MargarethdirectorWithheld for tax68021,813Form 4
2026-04-28Ponessa SaraofficerWithheld for tax66341,105Form 4
2026-04-28Fortmann Kathy LynndirectorAward / grant9,17523,552Form 4
2026-04-28Johnson KLynnedirectorAward / grant9,17544,351Form 4
2026-04-28Verduin PatriciadirectorAward / grant9,17516,326Form 4
2026-04-28DAVIDSON CAROL ANTHONYdirectorAward / grant9,17532,491Form 4
2026-04-28CORDEIRO EDUARDO EdirectorAward / grant9,17540,880Form 4
2026-04-28BARRY MICHAEL FdirectorAward / grant9,17528,809Form 4
2026-04-28MERKT STEVEN TdirectorAward / grant9,17515,053Form 4
2026-04-28Raines John MitchelldirectorAward / grant9,17522,996Form 4
2026-04-16DAVIDSON CAROL ANTHONYdirectorAward / grant4023,316Form 4
2026-04-16Verduin PatriciadirectorAward / grant187,151Form 4
2026-04-16BRONDEAU PIERRE RdirectorAward / grant29568,046Form 4
2026-04-16Raines John MitchelldirectorAward / grant1713,821Form 4
2026-04-16Oevrum MargarethdirectorAward / grant8422,493Form 4
2026-04-16Kempthorne Dirk AdirectorAward / grant20256,912Form 4
2026-04-16Pallash Robert CdirectorAward / grant24860,670Form 4
2026-04-16MERKT STEVEN TdirectorAward / grant125,878Form 4
2026-04-16Johnson KLynnedirectorAward / grant10735,176Form 4
2026-04-16GREER C SCOTTdirectorAward / grant13574,600Form 4
2026-04-16Fortmann Kathy LynndirectorAward / grant5114,377Form 4
2026-04-16CORDEIRO EDUARDO EdirectorAward / grant7131,705Form 4
2026-02-27BARRY MICHAEL FdirectorAward / grant1,5621,562Form 4
2026-02-24Hugenneyer ThaisaofficerWithheld for tax45835,205Form 4
2026-02-23BRONDEAU PIERRE RdirectorWithheld for tax4,837568,017Form 4
2026-02-23Sandifer Andrew DdirectorWithheld for tax2,814148,812Form 4
2026-02-23Sandifer Andrew DdirectorWithheld for tax1,719147,093Form 4
2026-02-23Scanlan JacquelineofficerWithheld for tax1,40468,695Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Dan NewhouseHousesale2026-07-172026-07-10$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-10-222025-09-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-17$1M+
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-08-072024-07-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-08-072024-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2024-04-252024-04-10$1–15K
Thomas R. CarperSenatepurchase2024-01-032023-12-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-11-082023-10-31$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-10-062023-09-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-09-062023-08-03$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.