Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.80 · now $17.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FLYW has typically landed between $13.98 and $22.15 — a range of −21.4% to +24.4% from the issuance price $17.80.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,312 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-05-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FLYW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $17.8 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $17.74 (-0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.12–$19.37
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.98–$22.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,312 windows spanning 2021-05-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-10 | −52.6% | −53.8% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-07 | −51.9% | −51.9% | +4.3% |
| 2025-02-06 | −51.1% | −51.1% | +5.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-08-04 | +51.9% | +0.0% | +51.9% |
| 2026-04-07 | +49.8% | −1.1% | +49.8% |
| 2026-04-08 | +49.5% | −2.5% | +49.5% |
1,312 overlapping windows · 2021-05-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
20%
−8.1%
n=5
Feb
20%
−4.6%
n=5
Mar
40%
−0.6%
n=5
Apr
20%
−0.6%
n=5
May
60%
−3.4%
n=5
Jun
67%
+2.6%
n=6
Jul
50%
+4.2%
n=6
Aug
83%
+13.9%
n=6
Sep
17%
−4.6%
n=6
Oct
40%
−1.4%
n=5
Nov
40%
+1.3%
n=5
Dec
40%
−0.4%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | King David R. | officer | Sale | 36,900 @ $17.88 | $660K | −13.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 239,304 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Sale | 12,156 @ $17.99 | $219K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 601,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Kansal Mohit | officer | Sale | 12,423 @ $18.69 | $232K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 478,324 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Massaro Michael | director | Sale | 112,500 @ $18.39 | $2.1M | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,400,558 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 37,005 @ $18.78 | $695K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,077,084 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,763 @ $18.78 | $146K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,069,321 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 91,931 @ $18.91 | $1.7M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,114,089 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,996 @ $18.91 | $38K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 366,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25,539 @ $18.99 | $485K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,206,020 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 555 @ $18.99 | $11K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 368,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 169,295 @ $19.19 | $3.2M | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,231,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,678 @ $19.19 | $71K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 369,168 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 99,146 @ $19.49 | $1.9M | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,400,854 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,154 @ $19.49 | $42K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 372,846 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25,000 @ $18.86 | $471K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,500,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 18,553 @ $18.40 | $341K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,525,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 15,724 @ $18.40 | $289K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,250,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 15,723 @ $18.40 | $289K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,265,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,947 @ $18.24 | $200K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,543,553 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,277 @ $18.24 | $169K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,290,723 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,276 @ $18.24 | $169K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,281,447 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 36,000 @ $18.22 | $656K | −12.2% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 258,051 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Massaro Michael | director | Sale | 32,328 @ $18.20 | $588K | −1.3% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,553,051 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Massaro Michael | director | Sale | 92,672 @ $18.62 | $1.7M | −3.5% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,585,379 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Sale | 31,096 @ $18.06 | $561K | −4.8% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 621,056 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Kansal Mohit | officer | Sale | 3,650 @ $16.96 | $62K | −0.7% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 500,670 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Kansal Mohit | officer | Sale | 54,543 @ $15.15 | $827K | −9.8% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 504,320 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Massaro Michael | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $15.26 | $763K | −1.8% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,678,051 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Sale | 6,528 @ $15.08 | $98K | −1.0% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 652,152 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Santos Edwin J | director | Sale | 6,524 @ $14.12 | $92K | −36.1% of holding | +27.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,558 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Sale | 6,188 @ $14.40 | $89K | −0.9% of holding | +21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 658,680 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Santos Edwin J | director | Sale | 10,466 @ $14.69 | $154K | −36.7% of holding | +28.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,082 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 4,800 @ $15.39 | $74K | −2.0% of holding | +25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 234,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 200 @ $16.18 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | +25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 234,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Orgel Rob | officer | Sale | 178,980 @ $17.00 | $3.0M | −15.7% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 959,061 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Sale | 1,480 @ $18.02 | $27K | −0.2% of holding | −22.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 671,482 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Massaro Michael | director | Sale | 38,170 @ $16.62 | $634K | −1.4% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,766,035 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Pitigoi Cosmin | officer | Sale | 35,000 @ $17.38 | $608K | −3.8% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 897,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 17,806 @ $16.73 | $298K | −6.7% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 249,313 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 14,820 @ $17.50 | $259K | −5.9% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 234,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Kansal Mohit | officer | Sale | 16,101 @ $15.90 | $256K | −2.8% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 567,794 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Massaro Michael | director | Sale | 11,830 @ $15.65 | $185K | −0.4% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,804,205 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 5,295 @ $15.54 | $82K | −1.9% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 267,119 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Pitigoi Cosmin | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $14.00 | $420K | −3.1% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 932,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Sale | 9,009 @ $13.05 | $118K | −1.7% of holding | −7.4% | +26.7% | 532,962 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Massaro Michael | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $12.31 | $1.8M | −4.9% of holding | −1.4% | +39.6% | 2,906,969 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $10.99 | $275K | +1.1% of holding | +16.7% | +52.9% | 2,300,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 16,612 @ $15.08 | $251K | −6.6% of holding | −22.6% | +11.5% | 234,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Sale | 13,327 @ $15.01 | $200K | −3.4% of holding | −22.6% | +11.5% | 374,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 44,991 @ $14.23 | $640K | +0.5% of holding | −13.1% | +18.7% | 9,670,000 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 181,121 @ $14.15 | $2.6M | +1.9% of holding | −11.7% | +23.5% | 9,625,009 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 367 @ $15.00 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | −7.7% | +12.1% | 234,493 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Sale | 8,120 @ $13.69 | $111K | −2.1% of holding | +5.7% | +0.1% | 382,310 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $15.00 | $15K | −0.3% of holding | −3.9% | +13.7% | 393,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 100 @ $15.02 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −3.9% | +13.7% | 234,493 | Form 4 · filed 55 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Sale | 9,563 @ $13.14 | $126K | −2.4% of holding | −7.5% | −5.5% | 394,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Sale | 9,563 @ $10.27 | $98K | −2.3% of holding | +8.6% | +16.7% | 407,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Santos Edwin J | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $10.50 | $53K | −22.7% of holding | +11.3% | +14.5% | 16,990 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Santos Edwin J | director | Sale | 5,466 @ $10.04 | $55K | −19.9% of holding | +10.9% | +19.2% | 21,990 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Sale | 5,523 @ $10.08 | $56K | −2.2% of holding | −1.2% | +15.7% | 247,561 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
100 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Massaro Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 39,993 | 2,513,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Orgel Rob | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,979 | 916,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Pitigoi Cosmin | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,673 | 856,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | King David R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,971 | 1,075,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Kansal Mohit | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,923 | 490,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,878 | 613,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 48,000 | 294,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 48,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | King David R. | officer | Option exercise | 5,125 | 1,091,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | King David R. | officer | Option exercise | 5,125 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 239,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Howard Gretchen | director | Award / grant | 11,558 | 59,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Katziff Christine | director | Award / grant | 11,558 | 39,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Harris Matthew C | director | Award / grant | 11,558 | 39,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finkelstein Alex | director | Award / grant | 11,558 | 270,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Santos Edwin J | director | Award / grant | 11,558 | 28,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 48,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Riese Phillip John | director | Award / grant | 11,558 | 246,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Jaques Carleigh | director | Award / grant | 11,558 | 44,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Offereins Diane E | director | Award / grant | 11,558 | 58,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Massaro Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 39,799 | 2,726,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Orgel Rob | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,979 | 937,082 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Pitigoi Cosmin | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,890 | 878,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | King David R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,970 | 1,084,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kansal Mohit | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,921 | 557,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,318 | 664,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 37,921 | 272,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 37,921 | 53,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | King David R. | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 1,100,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | King David R. | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 5,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Option exercise | 140,000 | 672,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Option exercise | 140,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Katziff Christine | director | Award / grant | 28,225 | 28,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Massaro Michael | director | Option exercise | 14,087 | 2,816,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Massaro Michael | director | Option exercise | 14,087 | 544,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Massaro Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 105,021 | 2,801,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Orgel Rob | officer | Withheld for tax | 64,512 | 1,138,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Pitigoi Cosmin | officer | Withheld for tax | 39,722 | 962,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | King David R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 34,811 | 1,092,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Butterfield Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,121 | 541,971 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.