FLY · TickerCove

FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.28 · now $20.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FLY has typically landed between $12.47 and $34.32 — a range of −38.5% to +69.2% from the issuance price $20.28.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

258 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-08-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$20.28 · 8% of range

$16.78 low$58.81 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Distribution ranges onlyiThis name has too little trading history to publish a calibrated probability, so we show its distribution ranges only — no directional call. Its record is still building.

No directional probability — ranges below.

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−9.5%

typical move · IQR 49.6%

−38.5%worst (p90)+69.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FLY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $20.28 (+0.0%)
typical $18.35 (-9.5%)
middle 50% $13.32–$23.38
90% range $12.47–$34.32

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 258 windows spanning 2025-08-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-05-26	−58.2%	−58.2%	+0.0%
2026-05-27	−55.4%	−57.0%	+0.0%
2026-05-22	−49.5%	−49.5%	+18.8%
3 best
2026-03-10	+93.8%	+0.0%	+96.6%
2026-03-18	+88.5%	−1.0%	+90.5%
2026-03-19	+86.4%	+0.0%	+92.4%

258 overlapping windows · 2025-08-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+12.7%

n=1

Feb

−23.5%

n=1

Mar

100%

+47.7%

n=1

Apr

100%

+21.5%

n=1

May

100%

+34.4%

n=1

Jun

−36.8%

n=1

Jul

−30.9%

n=1

Aug

100%

+3.9%

n=1

Sep

−19.7%

n=2

Oct

−17.3%

n=1

Nov

−27.0%

n=1

Dec

100%

+26.3%

n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-01	AEROEQUITY GP, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	5,198,872 @ $48.00	$249.5M	−13.6% of holding	−34.4%	not yet — horizon still open	33,016,575	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01	AEROEQUITY GP, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,801,128 @ $48.00	$134.5M	−13.7% of holding	−34.4%	not yet — horizon still open	17,688,857	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18	Wheeler David Leigh	officer	Sale	3,765 @ $45.12	$170K	−2.6% of holding	−29.4%	not yet — horizon still open	142,758	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-17	Wheeler David Leigh	officer	Sale	3,766 @ $45.04	$170K	−2.6% of holding	−3.5%	not yet — horizon still open	142,758	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-06	AEROEQUITY GP, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	11,111 @ $45.00	$500K	ownership Δ n/a	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	11,111	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06	Braden Pamela Joyce	director	Purchase	8,888 @ $45.00	$400K	+57.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	24,252	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06	Konert Kirk Michael	director	Purchase	3,333 @ $45.00	$150K	ownership Δ n/a	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,333	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06	Zurbuchen Thomas Hansueli	director	Purchase	800 @ $45.00	$36K	ownership Δ n/a	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	800	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06	Lusczakoski Jonathan Donald	director	Purchase	266 @ $45.00	$12K	ownership Δ n/a	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	266	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

50 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-14	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	40,821	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	3,193	127,156	Form 4
2026-08-14	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	40,821	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	3,193	127,156	Form 4
2026-08-14	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	40,821	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	3,193	127,156	Form 4
2026-08-14	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	40,821	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	3,193	127,156	Form 4
2026-08-04	O'Konek Nathan	officer	Award / grant	103,154	103,154	Form 4
2026-06-04	Lusczakoski Jonathan Donald	director	Award / grant	3,630	9,186	Form 4
2026-06-04	Zurbuchen Thomas Hansueli	director	Award / grant	3,630	7,764	Form 4
2026-06-04	McAllister Kevin G	director	Award / grant	3,630	6,964	Form 4
2026-06-04	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Award / grant	3,630	6,964	Form 4
2026-06-04	Braden Pamela Joyce	director	Award / grant	3,630	31,216	Form 4
2026-06-04	Konert Kirk Michael	director	Award / grant	3,630	10,297	Form 4
2026-06-04	Emerson Christopher Plummer IV	director	Award / grant	3,630	6,964	Form 4
2026-05-18	Wheeler David Leigh	officer	Option exercise	3,765	146,523	Form 4
2026-05-18	Wheeler David Leigh	officer	Option exercise	3,765	295,992	Form 4
2026-04-17	Wheeler David Leigh	officer	Option exercise	3,766	146,524	Form 4
2026-04-17	Wheeler David Leigh	officer	Option exercise	3,766	299,757	Form 4
2026-04-08	Wu Remington	officer	Award / grant	10,423	40,423	Form 4
2026-03-23	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	688,751	40,821	Form 4
2026-03-23	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	539,143	0	Form 4
2026-03-23	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	688,751	40,821	Form 4
2026-03-23	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	1,601,440	0	Form 4
2026-03-23	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	122,860	122,860	Form 4
2026-03-23	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	539,143	0	Form 4
2026-03-23	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	1,601,440	0	Form 4
2026-03-23	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Other acquisition	122,860	122,860	Form 4
2026-03-19	Kim Jesung	director	Award / grant	52,836	941,725	Form 4
2026-03-10	Wheeler David Leigh	officer	Award / grant	25,044	142,758	Form 4
2026-03-10	Ma Darren	officer	Award / grant	26,629	260,943	Form 4
2026-03-10	Ferring Russell Shea	officer	Award / grant	15,756	542,124	Form 4
2026-03-10	Sanchez Ramon Gilbert	officer	Award / grant	18,493	118,493	Form 4
2026-02-25	Lusczakoski Jonathan Donald	director	Award / grant	3,334	5,556	Form 4
2026-02-25	Konert Kirk Michael	director	Award / grant	3,334	6,667	Form 4
2026-02-25	Braden Pamela Joyce	director	Award / grant	3,334	27,586	Form 4
2026-02-25	McAllister Kevin G	director	Award / grant	3,334	3,334	Form 4
2026-02-25	Emerson Christopher Plummer IV	director	Award / grant	3,334	3,334	Form 4
2026-02-25	Boland Ryan Michael	director	Award / grant	3,334	3,334	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i