FLRFluor Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $52.99 · now $52.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FLR has typically landed between $44.61 and $62.71 — a range of −15.8% to +18.3% from the issuance price $52.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($52.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FLR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $52.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$44.61worst · -15.8%$62.71best · +18.3%
  • now $52.99 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $54.47 (+2.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $50.42–$58.51
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $44.61–$62.71
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-14−77.0%−77.0%+0.0%
2020-02-18−76.8%−76.8%+0.0%
2020-02-13−69.5%−69.5%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+141.8%+0.0%+141.8%
2020-03-30+94.5%+0.0%+94.5%
2020-04-01+70.9%+0.0%+96.0%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.9%
n=18
Feb
53%
−2.3%
n=19
Mar
58%
+3.1%
n=19
Apr
47%
+4.1%
n=19
May
32%
−2.4%
n=19
Jun
58%
+2.2%
n=19
Jul
53%
+0.2%
n=19
Aug
47%
−3.2%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.1%
n=19
Oct
56%
+2.6%
n=18
Nov
67%
+7.0%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$58$402026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $276K — Bechelany Pierre Edward2026-03-10: 1 insider sale, $712K — Collins Alvin C III2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $381K — Morgan Anthony2026-02-27: 2 insider sales, $619K — Regan John C …2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $885K — Regan John C2026-02-23: 2 insider sales, $360K — Morgan Anthony, Alexander Michael E.2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $157K — Hammonds Kevin B2026-02-19: 5 insider sales, $652K — Bechelany Pierre Edward, Cook Tracey H, Fields Mark E …2026-02: 11 open-market sales, $2.7M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $276K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Bechelany Pierre Edward — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Collins Alvin C III — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Morgan Anthony — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Regan John C — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Regan John C — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Regan John C — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Morgan Anthony — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Alexander Michael E. — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hammonds Kevin B — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Bechelany Pierre Edward — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Cook Tracey H — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Fields Mark E — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Fields Mark E — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Fields Mark E — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Bechelany Pierre EdwardofficerSale5,000 @ $55.24$276K−12.2% of holding+7.3%not yet — horizon still open36,064Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-10Collins Alvin C IIIofficerSale15,610 @ $45.62$712K−17.9% of holding+8.5%not yet — horizon still open71,518Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-06Morgan AnthonyofficerSale8,500 @ $44.78$381K−18.5% of holding+7.5%not yet — horizon still open37,499Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27Regan John CofficerSale8,094 @ $51.41$416K−7.0% of holding−8.7%−9.2%107,754Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27Regan John CofficerSale3,895 @ $52.21$203K−3.6% of holding−8.7%−9.2%103,859Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-26Regan John CofficerSale16,773 @ $52.74$885K−12.6% of holding−4.4%−6.7%115,848Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-23Morgan AnthonyofficerSale3,387 @ $53.09$180K−6.9% of holding−4.0%−7.9%45,999Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Alexander Michael E.officerSale3,387 @ $53.07$180K−4.7% of holding−4.0%−7.9%68,664Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20Hammonds Kevin BofficerSale2,988 @ $52.61$157K−15.5% of holding−7.9%−9.0%16,273Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-19Bechelany Pierre EdwardofficerSale4,581 @ $53.10$243K−12.3% of holding−10.0%−5.3%32,748Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Cook Tracey HdirectorSale2,589 @ $53.22$138K−19.4% of holding−10.0%−5.3%10,731Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Fields Mark EofficerSale2,318 @ $52.68$122K−1.2% of holding−10.0%−5.3%195,315Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Fields Mark EofficerSale2,059 @ $51.58$106K−1.0% of holding−10.0%−5.3%197,633Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Fields Mark EofficerSale801 @ $53.43$43K−0.4% of holding−10.0%−5.3%194,514Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-03Constable David EdirectorSale38,600 @ $52.11$2.0M−4.6% of holding−25.1%−30.8%792,027Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-03Collins Alvin C IIIofficerSale2,988 @ $52.13$156K−4.4% of holding−25.1%−30.8%64,383Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-16Constable David EdirectorSale40,000 @ $50.15$2.0M−4.6% of holding+1.6%−28.4%830,627Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11Constable David EdirectorSale40,800 @ $49.00$2.0M−4.5% of holding+3.9%−27.8%870,627Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09Collins Alvin C IIIofficerSale18,920 @ $45.43$860K−22.7% of holding+10.6%−18.6%64,383Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-05D'Agostino Thomas PofficerSale7,681 @ $56.39$433K−5.3% of holding−7.1%−19.9%137,974Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

113 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04CALDWELL JAMES FRANK JRdirectorAward / grant2,7652,765Form 4
2026-05-06BERKERY ROSEMARY TdirectorAward / grant3,50663,126Form 4
2026-05-06BENNETT ALAN MdirectorAward / grant3,50660,460Form 4
2026-05-06HACKETT JAMES TdirectorAward / grant3,50672,863Form 4
2026-05-06ROSE MATTHEW KdirectorAward / grant3,50699,435Form 4
2026-05-06Glatch LisadirectorAward / grant3,50614,059Form 4
2026-05-06McClure Teri PdirectorAward / grant3,50642,652Form 4
2026-05-06Blankenship Charles PdirectorAward / grant3,5069,146Form 4
2026-05-06CARD ROBERT GdirectorAward / grant3,5064,164Form 4
2026-05-06EBERHART PAULETTdirectorAward / grant3,50643,380Form 4
2026-03-06Constable David EdirectorWithheld for tax92,243843,523Form 4
2026-03-06Breuer James RdirectorWithheld for tax14,435165,703Form 4
2026-03-06Regan John CofficerWithheld for tax9,26194,598Form 4
2026-03-06Collins Alvin C IIIofficerWithheld for tax7,67487,128Form 4
2026-03-06Bechelany Pierre EdwardofficerWithheld for tax1,92941,064Form 4
2026-03-06Morgan AnthonyofficerWithheld for tax1,25436,245Form 4
2026-03-06Hammonds Kevin BofficerWithheld for tax84527,071Form 4
2026-03-06Alexander Michael E.officerWithheld for tax67867,986Form 4
2026-03-06Davies NicoleofficerWithheld for tax37726,623Form 4
2026-03-06Cook Tracey HdirectorWithheld for tax27617,442Form 4
2026-03-04CARD ROBERT GdirectorAward / grant658658Form 4
2026-02-26Regan John CofficerOption exercise16,773132,621Form 4
2026-02-26Regan John CofficerOption exercise16,7730Form 4
2026-02-23Alexander Michael E.officerOption exercise3,38772,051Form 4
2026-02-23Morgan AnthonyofficerOption exercise3,38749,386Form 4
2026-02-23Morgan AnthonyofficerOption exercise3,3870Form 4
2026-02-23Alexander Michael E.officerOption exercise3,3870Form 4
2026-02-20Hammonds Kevin BofficerOption exercise2,98819,261Form 4
2026-02-20Alexander Michael E.officerAward / grant13,03868,664Form 4
2026-02-20Hammonds Kevin BofficerAward / grant11,64327,916Form 4
2026-02-20Davies NicoleofficerAward / grant6,98727,000Form 4
2026-02-20Bechelany Pierre EdwardofficerAward / grant10,24542,993Form 4
2026-02-20Elliott James PaulofficerAward / grant1,8651,865Form 4
2026-02-20Collins Alvin C IIIofficerAward / grant13,03894,802Form 4
2026-02-20Cook Tracey HdirectorAward / grant6,98717,718Form 4
2026-02-20Regan John CofficerAward / grant15,366115,848Form 4
2026-02-20Breuer James RdirectorAward / grant60,534180,138Form 4
2026-02-20Morgan AnthonyofficerAward / grant13,03845,999Form 4
2026-02-20Hammonds Kevin BofficerOption exercise2,9880Form 4
2026-02-19Fields Mark EofficerOption exercise5,178199,692Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Steve CohenHousesale2026-01-262025-12-29$15–50K
Lois FrankelHousesale2023-10-102023-09-08$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2023-08-262023-08-04$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2023-04-282023-03-16$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2023-03-132023-02-17$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2023-02-032023-01-05$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousepurchase2021-01-212021-01-13$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousepurchase2020-12-282020-12-01$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousepurchase2020-12-282020-11-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-05-132020-04-07$1–15K
Donna ShalalaHousepurchase2020-04-272019-02-15$1–15K
Donna ShalalaHousesale2020-04-272019-06-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-03-092020-02-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-09-112019-08-12$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.