Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.45 · now $20.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FLOC has typically landed between $16.35 and $24.29 — a range of −20.0% to +18.8% from the issuance price $20.45.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
397 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-01-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FLOC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.45 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.38 (-0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.44–$22.32
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.35–$24.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 397 windows spanning 2025-01-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-24 | −27.3% | −33.4% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | −24.7% | −32.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-06 | −23.3% | −23.3% | +0.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-01 | +27.1% | +0.0% | +27.1% |
| 2026-04-21 | +25.0% | +0.0% | +25.0% |
| 2025-04-08 | +23.8% | +0.0% | +23.8% |
397 overlapping windows · 2025-01-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+11.6%
n=1
Feb
50%
+0.2%
n=2
Mar
0%
−4.6%
n=2
Apr
50%
−2.1%
n=2
May
0%
−8.0%
n=2
Jun
50%
−2.6%
n=2
Jul
50%
+0.4%
n=2
Aug
50%
−2.5%
n=2
Sep
0%
−7.9%
n=2
Oct
100%
+9.1%
n=1
Nov
100%
+5.2%
n=1
Dec
100%
+10.4%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Sale | 604,686 @ $21.18 | $12.8M | −100.0% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Sale | 286,179 @ $21.18 | $6.1M | −100.0% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Sale | 252,361 @ $21.18 | $5.3M | −100.0% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Sale | 14,205 @ $21.18 | $301K | −3.9% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 351,898 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Sale | 12,569 @ $21.18 | $266K | −3.9% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 311,396 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Sale | 4,031,250 @ $21.18 | $85.4M | −100.0% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Sale | 1,907,855 @ $21.18 | $40.4M | −100.0% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Sale | 1,682,406 @ $21.18 | $35.6M | −100.0% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Sale | 94,694 @ $21.18 | $2.0M | −20.6% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 366,103 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Sale | 83,795 @ $21.18 | $1.8M | −20.6% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 323,965 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Roberts Chad | officer | Sale | 54,706 @ $22.39 | $1.2M | −44.9% of holding | +3.7% | −20.0% | 67,008 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Roberts Chad | officer | Sale | 8,300 @ $21.45 | $178K | −6.4% of holding | +10.7% | −14.6% | 121,714 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Roberts Chad | officer | Sale | 40,884 @ $21.47 | $878K | −23.9% of holding | +9.9% | −14.0% | 130,014 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Roberts Chad | officer | Sale | 23,428 @ $19.34 | $453K | −12.1% of holding | +15.1% | −1.5% | 170,898 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | Roberts Chad | officer | Sale | 72 @ $19.30 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | +22.0% | +2.1% | 194,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Roberts Chad | officer | Sale | 7,400 @ $19.32 | $143K | −3.7% of holding | +16.3% | −1.9% | 194,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Roberts Chad | officer | Sale | 9,253 @ $19.30 | $179K | −5.1% of holding | +4.7% | +14.3% | 172,290 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Roberts Chad | officer | Sale | 19,457 @ $18.62 | $362K | −9.7% of holding | +3.7% | +23.1% | 181,543 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Roberts Chad | officer | Sale | 53,938 @ $16.84 | $908K | −21.2% of holding | +9.9% | +25.8% | 201,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Chad | officer | Sale | 77,389 @ $16.94 | $1.3M | −23.3% of holding | +10.6% | +26.8% | 254,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Roberts Chad | officer | Sale | 55,173 @ $18.26 | $1.0M | −14.2% of holding | −3.8% | +25.4% | 332,327 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | HOBBY PAUL W | director | Purchase | 500 @ $19.00 | $10K | +1.8% of holding | −8.9% | −25.8% | 28,040 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | HOBBY PAUL W | director | Purchase | 500 @ $19.10 | $10K | +1.8% of holding | −7.4% | −26.4% | 27,540 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-14 | HOBBY PAUL W | director | Purchase | 1,415 @ $19.10 | $27K | +5.5% of holding | −10.8% | −34.6% | 27,040 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | HOBBY PAUL W | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $24.15 | $48K | +8.5% of holding | −12.2% | −55.6% | 25,625 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | HOBBY PAUL W | director | Purchase | 8,000 @ $24.18 | $193K | +51.2% of holding | −11.5% | −52.1% | 23,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | EDWARDS JOSEPH R | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $24.00 | $1.2M | +37.1% of holding | −12.6% | −41.1% | 184,792 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Byers Jonathan W. | officer | Purchase | 12,000 @ $24.00 | $288K | +23.9% of holding | −12.6% | −41.1% | 62,208 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Chmelev Alexander | director | Purchase | 8,300 @ $24.00 | $199K | +53.1% of holding | −12.6% | −41.1% | 23,925 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Lambert Joel Christian | officer | Purchase | 4,300 @ $24.00 | $103K | +34.4% of holding | −12.6% | −41.1% | 16,800 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Merrill James A | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $24.00 | $48K | +24.0% of holding | −12.6% | −41.1% | 10,333 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Purchase | 500 @ $24.00 | $12K | ownership Δ n/a | −12.6% | −41.1% | 500 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Rutherford John R | director | Award / grant | 2,629 | 2,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Roberts Chad | officer | Conversion | 350,000 | 218,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Roberts Chad | officer | Conversion | 350,000 | 417,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Roberts Chad | officer | Conversion | 350,000 | 417,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | MURCHISON JOHN HARDY | director | Award / grant | 3,625 | 3,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 286,179 | 7,089,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 252,361 | 6,252,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 604,686 | 14,980,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 252,361 | 252,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 286,179 | 286,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 604,686 | 604,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 252,361 | 252,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 286,179 | 286,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 604,686 | 604,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 1,682,406 | 6,504,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 1,907,855 | 7,376,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 4,031,250 | 15,585,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 1,907,855 | 1,907,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 4,031,250 | 4,031,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 1,682,406 | 1,682,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 1,907,855 | 1,907,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 4,031,250 | 4,031,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairbanks Jonathan B. | director | Option exercise | 1,682,406 | 1,682,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Talton Brooks Mims III | officer | Conversion | 100,000 | 1,017,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Talton Brooks Mims III | officer | Conversion | 100,000 | 183,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Talton Brooks Mims III | officer | Conversion | 100,000 | 183,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Roberts Chad | officer | Award / grant | 39,344 | 39,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Talton Brooks Mims III | officer | Award / grant | 29,508 | 83,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Lambert Joel Christian | officer | Award / grant | 34,426 | 46,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Lambert Joel Christian | officer | Award / grant | 45,902 | 45,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Merrill James A | officer | Award / grant | 10,929 | 21,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | EDWARDS JOSEPH R | director | Award / grant | 95,628 | 230,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | EDWARDS JOSEPH R | director | Award / grant | 191,256 | 191,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Byers Jonathan W. | officer | Award / grant | 59,016 | 59,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Roberts Chad | officer | Award / grant | 29,508 | 201,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Byers Jonathan W. | officer | Award / grant | 44,262 | 94,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Talton Brooks Mims III | officer | Award / grant | 39,344 | 39,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Talton Brooks Mims III | officer | Award / grant | 39,344 | 39,344 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | Roberts Chad | officer | Conversion | 350,000 | 568,016 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | Roberts Chad | officer | Conversion | 350,000 | 387,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.