FLOFlowers Foods, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.15 · now $6.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FLO has typically landed between $5.39 and $6.67 — a range of −12.4% to +8.5% from the issuance price $6.15.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FLO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$5.39worst · -12.4%$6.67best · +8.5%
  • now $6.15 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.08 (-1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.81–$6.34
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.39–$6.67
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2016-01-13−26.7%−26.7%+0.7%
2026-02-06−25.5%−25.5%+0.0%
2026-02-09−25.0%−25.0%+0.0%
3 best
2016-12-01+30.1%+0.0%+30.6%
2016-11-29+29.7%−0.7%+29.7%
2016-12-02+29.5%+0.0%+29.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+0.6%
n=20
Feb
50%
−0.2%
n=20
Mar
75%
+3.2%
n=20
Apr
75%
+2.8%
n=20
May
55%
−1.0%
n=20
Jun
50%
−0.0%
n=20
Jul
45%
−0.5%
n=20
Aug
40%
−2.0%
n=20
Sep
50%
−0.3%
n=20
Oct
65%
+1.6%
n=20
Nov
50%
−0.2%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$15$62026-06-08: 1 insider purchase, $38K — SCAGLIONE DIEGO ANTHONY2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — McMullian Ryals2026-01-02: 1 insider sale, $2.3M — McMullian Ryals2025-12-03: 1 insider purchase, $5K — STITH MELVIN T2025-09-25: 1 insider sale, $4.5M — McMullian Ryals2025-09-09: 1 insider sale, $54K — Cox Cindy2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $4.5M2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $5K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $2.3M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $38K↑ buys↓ salesofficer SCAGLIONE DIEGO ANTHONY — Purchase on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McMullian Ryals — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McMullian Ryals — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector STITH MELVIN T — Purchase on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McMullian Ryals — Sale on 2025-09-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cox Cindy — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-08SCAGLIONE DIEGO ANTHONYofficerPurchase5,000 @ $7.51$38K+2.6% of holding+7.7%not yet — horizon still open194,180Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01McMullian RyalsdirectorSale209,000 @ $8.03$1.7M−20.4% of holding−2.6%not yet — horizon still open813,380Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-02McMullian RyalsdirectorSale209,000 @ $10.87$2.3M−17.0% of holding+3.0%−26.8%1,022,380Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-03STITH MELVIN TdirectorPurchase456 @ $10.90$5K+499.4% of holding−7.7%−39.0%547Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-25McMullian RyalsdirectorSale350,000 @ $12.82$4.5M−22.1% of holding−4.7%−27.6%1,231,380Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-09Cox CindyofficerSale3,600 @ $15.00$54K−17.5% of holding−18.6%−43.3%16,994Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27DEESE GEORGE EdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $16.84$101K+0.3% of holding−8.1%−50.6%2,004,990Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27McFadden William JamesondirectorPurchase3,000 @ $16.92$51K+0.6% of holding−8.1%−50.6%532,476Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-27Chubb Thomas Caldecot IIIdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $16.88$51K+7.0% of holding−8.1%−50.6%45,861Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

212 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-15COURTNEY H MARKofficerAward / grant25,980129,319Form 4
2026-06-04Chubb Thomas Caldecot IIIdirectorOption exercise3,71058,921Form 4
2026-06-04Chubb Thomas Caldecot IIIdirectorDisposition18,5500Form 4
2026-06-04Chubb Thomas Caldecot IIIdirectorOption exercise3,71018,550Form 4
2026-05-29DEESE GEORGE EdirectorOption exercise9,3502,014,340Form 4
2026-05-29Casey Edward J. Jr.directorOption exercise9,35042,190Form 4
2026-05-29KING BRIGITTEdirectorAward / grant22,26022,260Form 4
2026-05-29Casey Edward J. Jr.directorOption exercise9,3500Form 4
2026-05-29Smith Joanne DdirectorAward / grant22,26022,260Form 4
2026-05-29Chubb Thomas Caldecot IIIdirectorOption exercise9,35055,211Form 4
2026-05-29GASS RHONDAdirectorAward / grant22,26022,260Form 4
2026-05-29Chubb Thomas Caldecot IIIdirectorOption exercise9,3500Form 4
2026-05-29LEWIS MARGARET GdirectorAward / grant22,26022,260Form 4
2026-05-29Chubb Thomas Caldecot IIIdirectorAward / grant22,26022,260Form 4
2026-05-29LEWIS MARGARET GdirectorOption exercise9,3500Form 4
2026-05-29LEWIS MARGARET GdirectorOption exercise9,350100,645Form 4
2026-05-29Spainhour Sterling A Jr.directorAward / grant22,26022,260Form 4
2026-05-29Spainhour Sterling A Jr.directorOption exercise7,9000Form 4
2026-05-29Spainhour Sterling A Jr.directorOption exercise7,9007,900Form 4
2026-05-29McFadden William JamesondirectorAward / grant22,26022,260Form 4
2026-05-29McFadden William JamesondirectorOption exercise9,3500Form 4
2026-05-29McFadden William JamesondirectorOption exercise9,350648,131Form 4
2026-05-29SPEAR JAMES TdirectorAward / grant22,26022,260Form 4
2026-05-29DEESE GEORGE EdirectorOption exercise9,3500Form 4
2026-02-25McMullian RyalsdirectorWithheld for tax41,9801,369,440Form 4
2026-02-25THOMAS TERRY SdirectorWithheld for tax8,428114,977Form 4
2026-02-25TILLMAN STEPHANIE BofficerWithheld for tax8,319110,098Form 4
2026-02-25Varnedoe Heeth IVofficerWithheld for tax7,178105,822Form 4
2026-02-25COURTNEY H MARKofficerWithheld for tax5,943103,339Form 4
2026-02-25Winters Thomas LofficerWithheld for tax4,41950,384Form 4
2026-02-25ROACH DAVID MofficerWithheld for tax4,343157,865Form 4
2026-02-25CHAFFIN JOHN MARKofficerWithheld for tax3,09386,863Form 4
2026-02-25Cox CindyofficerWithheld for tax3,07045,430Form 4
2026-02-25CHAFFIN JOHN MARKofficerAward / grant11,44789,956Form 4
2026-02-25COURTNEY H MARKofficerAward / grant12,857109,282Form 4
2026-02-25TILLMAN STEPHANIE BofficerAward / grant18,704118,417Form 4
2026-02-25McMullian RyalsdirectorAward / grant98,8621,411,420Form 4
2026-02-25Varnedoe Heeth IVofficerAward / grant20,543113,000Form 4
2026-02-25THOMAS TERRY SdirectorAward / grant34,617123,405Form 4
2026-02-25ROACH DAVID MofficerAward / grant10,672162,208Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.