FLNC · TickerCove

FLNCFluence Energy, Inc.Utilities · Renewable Utilitiesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.05 · now $9.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FLNC has typically landed between $6.04 and $13.84 — a range of −33.2% to +52.9% from the issuance price $9.05.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,204 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$9.05 · 6% of range

$7.44 low$32.23 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.7%

typical move · IQR 33.6%

−33.2%worst (p90)+52.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FLNC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $9.05 (+0.0%)
typical $8.8 (-2.7%)
middle 50% $7.28–$10.32
90% range $6.04–$13.84

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,204 windows spanning 2021-10-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-01-30	−62.4%	−62.4%	+0.0%
2025-01-14	−61.7%	−61.7%	+0.0%
2025-01-13	−60.6%	−60.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-09-16	+185.9%	−0.8%	+185.9%
2025-09-17	+163.2%	+0.0%	+188.2%
2025-09-15	+149.7%	+0.0%	+149.7%

1,204 overlapping windows · 2021-10-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

+2.8%

n=5

Feb

−35.8%

n=5

Mar

40%

−1.6%

n=5

Apr

20%

−13.0%

n=5

May

100%

+31.0%

n=5

Jun

60%

+4.2%

n=5

Jul

60%

+8.0%

n=5

Aug

40%

+3.2%

n=5

Sep

40%

+2.7%

n=5

Oct

50%

+17.0%

n=4

Nov

40%

+5.8%

n=5

Dec

40%

−1.5%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-23	Zahurancik John	officer	Sale	15,974 @ $22.03	$352K	−18.3% of holding	−32.6%	not yet — horizon still open	71,171	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22	Zahurancik John	officer	Sale	16,000 @ $25.18	$403K	−15.5% of holding	−42.2%	not yet — horizon still open	87,145	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15	von Heynitz Harald	director	Sale	5,000 @ $25.00	$125K	−7.9% of holding	−40.1%	not yet — horizon still open	58,550	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15	AES CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	10,066,414 @ $21.00	$211.4M	−100.0% of holding	+13.7%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	SPT Holding Sarl	tenPercentOwner	Sale	10,066,414 @ $20.53	$206.6M	−31.7% of holding	+13.7%	not yet — horizon still open	21,694,717	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-15	Qatar Investment Authority	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,867,172 @ $21.00	$60.2M	−19.5% of holding	+13.7%	not yet — horizon still open	11,801,103	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-18	von Heynitz Harald	director	Sale	10,000 @ $16.50	$165K	−13.6% of holding	−23.0%	not yet — horizon still open	63,550	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12	Arnold Cynthia A	director	Purchase	33,000 @ $5.90	$195K	+62.0% of holding	−16.3%	+265.4%	86,202	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-14	Nebreda Julian	director	Purchase	9,450 @ $5.26	$50K	+7.8% of holding	−16.9%	+25.9%	129,905	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-05	BULLS HERMAN E	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $5.41	$54K	+9.4% of holding	−13.1%	+11.9%	115,861	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18	von Heynitz Harald	director	Purchase	7,000 @ $6.99	$49K	+30.6% of holding	−12.2%	+6.0%	29,861	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-14	Pasha Ahmed	officer	Purchase	15,500 @ $6.48	$100K	+168.4% of holding	−6.3%	+19.2%	24,703	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-14	Fessenden Elizabeth Anne	director	Purchase	1,700 @ $6.43	$11K	+7.8% of holding	−6.3%	+19.2%	23,561	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-13	BULLS HERMAN E	director	Purchase	30,000 @ $6.53	$196K	+39.5% of holding	−5.5%	+22.5%	105,861	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-13	Nebreda Julian	director	Purchase	23,500 @ $6.35	$149K	+24.2% of holding	−5.5%	+22.5%	120,455	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13	Arnold Cynthia A	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $6.56	$66K	+31.4% of holding	−5.5%	+22.5%	41,861	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-23	BULLS HERMAN E	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $15.57	$156K	+15.2% of holding	−14.9%	−65.5%	75,861	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

149 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-17	Williams Peter Bennett	officer	Withheld for tax	3,905	22,292	Form 4
2026-07-17	Williams Peter Bennett	officer	Option exercise	8,588	0	Form 4
2026-07-17	Williams Peter Bennett	officer	Option exercise	8,588	26,197	Form 4
2026-07-06	SPT Holding Sarl	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	20,462,735	1,231,982	Form 4
2026-07-06	SPT Holding Sarl	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	20,462,735	1,231,982	Form 4
2026-06-02	Fessenden Elizabeth Anne	director	Gift	1,000	66,250	Form 4
2026-05-15	AES CORP	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	10,066,414	41,432,781	Form 4
2026-05-15	AES CORP	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	10,066,414	10,066,414	Form 4
2026-05-15	AES CORP	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	10,066,414	10,066,414	Form 4
2026-05-15	AES CORP	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	10,066,414	10,066,414	Form 4
2026-03-17	BULLS HERMAN E	director	Option exercise	32,348	0	Form 4
2026-03-17	Fessenden Elizabeth Anne	director	Option exercise	32,348	0	Form 4
2026-03-17	von Heynitz Harald	director	Option exercise	32,348	0	Form 4
2026-03-17	Arnold Cynthia A	director	Option exercise	32,348	0	Form 4
2026-03-17	BULLS HERMAN E	director	Option exercise	32,348	159,550	Form 4
2026-03-17	von Heynitz Harald	director	Option exercise	32,348	73,550	Form 4
2026-03-17	Fessenden Elizabeth Anne	director	Option exercise	32,348	67,250	Form 4
2026-03-17	BULLS HERMAN E	director	Option exercise	32,348	159,550	Form 4
2026-03-17	Fessenden Elizabeth Anne	director	Option exercise	32,348	67,250	Form 4
2026-03-17	Arnold Cynthia A	director	Option exercise	32,348	118,550	Form 4
2026-03-17	Arnold Cynthia A	director	Option exercise	32,348	118,550	Form 4
2026-03-17	von Heynitz Harald	director	Option exercise	32,348	73,550	Form 4
2026-03-12	Arnold Cynthia A	director	Award / grant	10,658	10,658	Form 4
2026-03-12	Fessenden Elizabeth Anne	director	Award / grant	10,658	10,658	Form 4
2026-03-12	BULLS HERMAN E	director	Award / grant	10,658	10,658	Form 4
2026-03-12	von Heynitz Harald	director	Award / grant	10,658	10,658	Form 4
2026-02-18	Pasha Ahmed	officer	Award / grant	23,997	23,997	Form 4
2026-02-18	Mathis Vincent	officer	Award / grant	20,943	20,943	Form 4
2026-02-18	Monday Jeffrey Richard	officer	Award / grant	17,453	17,453	Form 4
2026-02-18	Philpot Michelle	officer	Award / grant	6,262	6,262	Form 4
2026-02-18	Nebreda Julian	director	Award / grant	95,987	95,987	Form 4
2026-02-18	Williams Peter Bennett	officer	Award / grant	20,943	20,943	Form 4
2026-02-18	Zahurancik John	officer	Award / grant	17,453	17,453	Form 4
2026-01-01	Pasha Ahmed	officer	Withheld for tax	4,087	38,841	Form 4
2026-01-01	Pasha Ahmed	officer	Option exercise	10,902	10,901	Form 4
2026-01-01	Pasha Ahmed	officer	Option exercise	10,902	42,928	Form 4
2026-01-01	Pasha Ahmed	officer	Option exercise	10,902	42,928	Form 4
2025-12-18	Mathis Vincent	officer	Withheld for tax	62,866	101,305	Form 4
2025-12-18	Nebreda Julian	director	Withheld for tax	19,112	198,811	Form 4
2025-12-18	Pasha Ahmed	officer	Withheld for tax	4,293	32,026	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i