Issued 2026-09-16 at $1587.35 · now $1587.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FIX has typically landed between $1389.79 and $2004.10 — a range of −12.4% to +26.3% from the issuance price $1587.35.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1587.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FIX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1,587 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1,587 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,662 (+4.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1,532–$1,792
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1,390–$2,004
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −38.7% | −38.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −38.5% | −38.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-21 | −37.8% | −37.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-19 | +51.0% | −4.0% | +51.0% |
| 2008-12-01 | +49.8% | +0.0% | +49.8% |
| 2008-11-20 | +48.7% | +0.0% | +57.2% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$61.0B
market cap
$40.66
EPS (TTM)
42.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$9.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr11.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr41.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.32
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$967.77
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$1,246
- Analyst target · range $1,800–$2,200$2,004
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$1,587
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.4%
n=18
Feb
42%
+4.4%
n=19
Mar
63%
+3.0%
n=19
Apr
53%
+2.3%
n=19
May
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
68%
+2.8%
n=19
Jul
53%
+5.8%
n=19
Aug
63%
+0.0%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.9%
n=19
Oct
67%
+7.9%
n=18
Nov
56%
+2.9%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.5%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Lane Brian E. | director | Sale | 16,024 @ $1608.21 | $25.8M | −9.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 145,065 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | GEORGE WILLIAM III | officer | Sale | 2,554 @ $1859.65 | $4.7M | −7.8% of holding | −13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | MYERS FRANKLIN | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $1693.92 | $6.8M | −32.0% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | MYERS FRANKLIN | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $1690.47 | $5.9M | −5.6% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | MYERS FRANKLIN | director | Sale | 6,700 @ $1954.47 | $13.1M | −9.7% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,115 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Hardy Rhoman J | director | Sale | 342 @ $1900.08 | $650K | −15.3% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,890 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Shaeff Julie | officer | Sale | 1,123 @ $2000.37 | $2.2M | −8.2% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,624 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | GEORGE WILLIAM III | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $2020.96 | $2.0M | −3.0% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,804 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | GEORGE WILLIAM III | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $1948.17 | $7.8M | −10.6% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,804 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | MYERS FRANKLIN | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $1902.57 | $8.6M | −6.1% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Lane Brian E. | director | Sale | 11,113 @ $1969.84 | $21.9M | −6.5% of holding | −7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 161,089 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Mercado, Pablo G. | director | Sale | 500 @ $1779.78 | $890K | −14.3% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | SANDBROOK WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $1732.67 | $2.6M | −16.4% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | ANDERSON DARCY | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $1369.74 | $6.2M | −20.0% of holding | +6.2% | −0.7% | 18,035 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Shaeff Julie | officer | Sale | 2,287 @ $1382.15 | $3.2M | −14.3% of holding | +6.2% | −0.7% | 13,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Reed Terrence | officer | Sale | 1,116 @ $1397.33 | $1.6M | −28.3% of holding | +6.2% | −0.7% | 2,834 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Lane Brian E. | director | Sale | 9,365 @ $1453.12 | $13.6M | −5.2% of holding | +0.4% | +0.4% | 171,523 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | MYERS FRANKLIN | director | Sale | 8,636 @ $1472.56 | $12.7M | −10.5% of holding | +0.4% | +0.4% | 73,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | SANDBROOK WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $1443.32 | $3.6M | −21.4% of holding | +4.4% | −5.6% | 9,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Skidmore Constance Ellen | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $1425.00 | $1.4M | −7.3% of holding | +4.4% | −5.6% | 12,627 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Reed Terrence | officer | Sale | 671 @ $1457.17 | $978K | −14.5% of holding | +4.4% | −5.6% | 3,950 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | GEORGE WILLIAM III | officer | Sale | 9,000 @ $1434.97 | $12.9M | −19.2% of holding | +7.5% | +1.5% | 37,824 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Mercado, Pablo G. | director | Sale | 500 @ $1405.00 | $703K | −12.5% of holding | +7.5% | +1.5% | 3,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Howell Laura Finley | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $996.16 | $996K | −11.2% of holding | +1.6% | +75.9% | 7,938 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | GEORGE WILLIAM III | officer | Sale | 4,370 @ $958.88 | $4.2M | −9.9% of holding | −3.4% | +81.1% | 39,824 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Lane Brian E. | director | Sale | 7,158 @ $947.98 | $6.8M | −3.8% of holding | −2.2% | +83.0% | 180,888 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | ANDERSON DARCY | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $958.72 | $3.8M | −15.1% of holding | −2.9% | +97.3% | 22,535 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | MYERS FRANKLIN | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $1006.68 | $5.0M | −5.7% of holding | −2.7% | +79.5% | 82,901 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Mercado, Pablo G. | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $1005.41 | $2.5M | −38.5% of holding | −2.7% | +79.5% | 4,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | BULLS HERMAN E | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $1013.62 | $2.0M | −6.1% of holding | −2.7% | +79.5% | 30,574 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | SANDBROOK WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 800 @ $733.56 | $587K | −6.4% of holding | +7.8% | +80.2% | 11,666 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-09 | SANDBROOK WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 600 @ $708.97 | $425K | −4.6% of holding | +15.3% | +94.0% | 12,566 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | SANDBROOK WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 100 @ $706.00 | $71K | −0.8% of holding | +15.3% | +94.0% | 12,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | BULLS HERMAN E | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $710.00 | $2.1M | −8.4% of holding | +10.7% | +94.8% | 32,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | SANDBROOK WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 700 @ $689.58 | $483K | −5.0% of holding | +11.3% | +101.5% | 13,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Mercado, Pablo G. | director | Sale | 1,078 @ $695.88 | $750K | −14.2% of holding | +13.6% | +106.0% | 6,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Shaeff Julie | officer | Sale | 1,369 @ $704.50 | $964K | −7.9% of holding | +4.2% | +78.2% | 16,023 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | GEORGE WILLIAM III | officer | Sale | 8,436 @ $692.60 | $5.8M | −15.1% of holding | +0.6% | +76.3% | 47,473 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Lane Brian E. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $691.74 | $6.9M | −5.0% of holding | +0.5% | +67.5% | 188,046 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | MYERS FRANKLIN | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $683.57 | $3.1M | −4.3% of holding | +0.1% | +58.8% | 100,396 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Trent T McKenna | officer | Sale | 4,400 @ $716.63 | $3.2M | −16.9% of holding | −2.0% | +52.5% | 21,639 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | BULLS HERMAN E | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $500.01 | $1.3M | −6.6% of holding | +1.8% | +83.0% | 35,574 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | ANDERSON DARCY | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $506.82 | $4.1M | −23.2% of holding | +0.3% | +81.3% | 26,535 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | GEORGE WILLIAM III | officer | Sale | 12,500 @ $470.11 | $5.9M | −20.8% of holding | +5.0% | +88.5% | 47,473 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Skidmore Constance Ellen | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $452.98 | $453K | −7.0% of holding | +6.9% | +98.4% | 13,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Lane Brian E. | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $431.66 | $6.5M | −7.0% of holding | +11.5% | +107.5% | 198,046 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | ANDERSON DARCY | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $431.66 | $1.3M | −8.1% of holding | +11.5% | +107.5% | 34,193 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Mercado, Pablo G. | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $436.10 | $785K | −19.9% of holding | +8.9% | +103.0% | 7,236 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Tang Vance W | director | Sale | 500 @ $422.00 | $211K | −9.1% of holding | +8.1% | +108.4% | 4,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
110 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | MYERS FRANKLIN | director | Gift | 273 | 68,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Hardy Rhoman J | director | Award / grant | 105 | 2,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | MYERS FRANKLIN | director | Award / grant | 105 | 69,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | ANDERSON DARCY | director | Award / grant | 105 | 18,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Skidmore Constance Ellen | director | Award / grant | 105 | 12,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Wallis-Lage Cindy L. | director | Award / grant | 105 | 5,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mercado, Pablo G. | director | Award / grant | 105 | 3,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | BULLS HERMAN E | director | Award / grant | 105 | 29,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | SANDBROOK WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 105 | 7,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Kapoor Gaurav | director | Award / grant | 105 | 832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | MYERS FRANKLIN | director | Gift | 51 | 73,944 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | MYERS FRANKLIN | director | Gift | 205 | 73,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | MYERS FRANKLIN | director | Gift | 256 | 73,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Lane Brian E. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,512 | 172,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Lane Brian E. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,146 | 174,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Lane Brian E. | director | Withheld for tax | 941 | 173,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | GEORGE WILLIAM III | officer | Withheld for tax | 500 | 37,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Trent T McKenna | officer | Withheld for tax | 341 | 22,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | GEORGE WILLIAM III | officer | Withheld for tax | 297 | 38,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | GEORGE WILLIAM III | officer | Withheld for tax | 284 | 38,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Trent T McKenna | officer | Withheld for tax | 266 | 22,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Trent T McKenna | officer | Withheld for tax | 210 | 22,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Shaeff Julie | officer | Withheld for tax | 145 | 13,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Reed Terrence | officer | Withheld for tax | 98 | 3,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Reed Terrence | officer | Withheld for tax | 93 | 2,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Shaeff Julie | officer | Withheld for tax | 87 | 13,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Shaeff Julie | officer | Withheld for tax | 87 | 13,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Reed Terrence | officer | Withheld for tax | 82 | 3,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Eslicker Rachel R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 43 | 608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Eslicker Rachel R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 31 | 676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Eslicker Rachel R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 25 | 651 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Lane Brian E. | director | Withheld for tax | 910 | 175,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | GEORGE WILLIAM III | officer | Withheld for tax | 300 | 38,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Trent T McKenna | officer | Withheld for tax | 204 | 23,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Shaeff Julie | officer | Withheld for tax | 84 | 14,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Reed Terrence | officer | Withheld for tax | 56 | 3,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Reed Terrence | officer | Award / grant | 188 | 3,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Trent T McKenna | officer | Award / grant | 1,208 | 22,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Trent T McKenna | officer | Award / grant | 520 | 23,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Shaeff Julie | officer | Award / grant | 220 | 14,150 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | purchase | 2026-01-07 | 2025-12-04 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | purchase | 2026-01-07 | 2025-12-04 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-02-13 | 2025-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2020-05-06 | 2020-03-09 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2020-05-06 | 2020-03-16 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2020-05-06 | 2020-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2020-05-06 | 2020-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2020-05-06 | 2020-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2020-05-06 | 2020-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2020-05-06 | 2020-03-15 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2020-05-06 | 2020-03-09 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2020-05-06 | 2020-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2020-05-06 | 2020-03-30 | $50–100K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.