Issued 2026-09-16 at $237.68 · now $237.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FIVE has typically landed between $194.21 and $286.69 — a range of −18.3% to +20.6% from the issuance price $237.68.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,539 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-07-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($237.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FIVE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $237.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $237.68 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $241.09 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $221.05–$261.13
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $194.21–$286.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,539 windows spanning 2012-07-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −55.6% | −55.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −55.2% | −55.2% | +1.3% |
| 2020-02-18 | −53.9% | −53.9% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-16 | +69.8% | +0.0% | +69.8% |
| 2025-04-15 | +68.5% | +0.0% | +68.5% |
| 2025-04-11 | +68.2% | +0.0% | +71.1% |
3,539 overlapping windows · 2012-07-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
43%
−2.5%
n=14
Feb
57%
+2.1%
n=14
Mar
64%
+0.2%
n=14
Apr
50%
+1.9%
n=14
May
43%
+0.7%
n=14
Jun
57%
+3.0%
n=14
Jul
57%
+0.5%
n=14
Aug
73%
+3.1%
n=15
Sep
60%
+4.4%
n=15
Oct
71%
+1.3%
n=14
Nov
71%
+5.0%
n=14
Dec
71%
+3.1%
n=14
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | SPECTER ERIC M | officer | Sale | 5,500 @ $248.99 | $1.4M | −13.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,482 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Hawkins Jacob Kimball | officer | Sale | 818 @ $248.88 | $204K | −18.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,728 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Gellerman Maureen Marie | officer | Sale | 1,610 @ $248.94 | $401K | −15.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,804 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | DEVINE MICHAEL F III | director | Sale | 3,400 @ $250.44 | $851K | −19.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,803 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 2,585 @ $255.17 | $660K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 75,064 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 1,564 @ $242.91 | $380K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 81,380 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $240.73 | $361K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 84,074 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 1,192 @ $253.96 | $303K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 77,649 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 1,130 @ $242.01 | $273K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 82,944 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | DEVINE MICHAEL F III | director | Sale | 850 @ $251.28 | $214K | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,953 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 611 @ $247.90 | $151K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,852 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 600 @ $249.98 | $150K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,170 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 403 @ $246.94 | $100K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 80,463 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 186 @ $252.09 | $47K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,984 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 183 @ $243.93 | $45K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 81,197 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 168 @ $244.82 | $41K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 81,029 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 163 @ $246.07 | $40K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 80,866 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 143 @ $252.90 | $36K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,841 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 82 @ $248.75 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,770 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Lynch Robert | director | Purchase | 530 @ $176.06 | $93K | +54.3% of holding | +19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,506 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | MARKEE RICHARD L | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $232.04 | $696K | −18.5% of holding | −7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,233 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | SARGENT RONALD | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $231.75 | $2.3M | −12.0% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,674 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | SARGENT RONALD | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $231.28 | $2.3M | −10.7% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,674 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 5,970 @ $233.04 | $1.4M | −6.1% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,531 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 2,030 @ $235.46 | $478K | −2.0% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,501 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $236.07 | $472K | −2.0% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,531 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 1,891 @ $202.33 | $383K | −1.9% of holding | +8.6% | −4.7% | 99,115 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-15 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 34 @ $200.01 | $7K | −0.0% of holding | +8.6% | −4.7% | 101,006 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-13 | SPECTER ERIC M | officer | Sale | 7,026 @ $201.02 | $1.4M | −13.0% of holding | +1.9% | −10.4% | 47,198 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 3,324 @ $203.27 | $676K | −3.2% of holding | +1.9% | −10.4% | 101,730 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | SPECTER ERIC M | officer | Sale | 1,464 @ $201.80 | $295K | −3.1% of holding | +1.9% | −10.4% | 45,734 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 951 @ $202.34 | $192K | −0.9% of holding | +1.9% | −10.4% | 105,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 689 @ $204.56 | $141K | −0.7% of holding | +1.9% | −10.4% | 101,041 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 135 @ $200.86 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | +1.9% | −10.4% | 106,005 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | SPECTER ERIC M | officer | Sale | 10 @ $202.82 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +1.9% | −10.4% | 45,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 1 @ $205.11 | $205 | −0.0% of holding | +1.9% | −10.4% | 101,040 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | BARCLAY KATHLEEN S | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $182.03 | $400K | −19.3% of holding | +7.0% | −4.2% | 9,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Hill George | officer | Sale | 3,800 @ $182.13 | $692K | −9.7% of holding | +6.1% | −7.4% | 35,193 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Hill George | officer | Sale | 2,280 @ $182.98 | $417K | −6.5% of holding | +6.1% | −7.4% | 32,913 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Hill George | officer | Sale | 1,420 @ $180.54 | $256K | −3.5% of holding | +6.1% | −7.4% | 38,993 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | DEVINE MICHAEL F III | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $181.84 | $1.1M | −27.9% of holding | +9.8% | −3.3% | 15,540 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 7,362 @ $175.99 | $1.3M | −6.4% of holding | +15.0% | +2.1% | 107,264 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 7,215 @ $175.28 | $1.3M | −5.9% of holding | +15.0% | +2.1% | 114,626 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 5,851 @ $174.14 | $1.0M | −4.6% of holding | +15.0% | +2.1% | 121,841 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 2,017 @ $171.97 | $347K | −1.5% of holding | +15.0% | +2.1% | 128,317 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 1,074 @ $176.93 | $190K | −1.0% of holding | +15.0% | +2.1% | 106,190 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 625 @ $172.66 | $108K | −0.5% of holding | +15.0% | +2.1% | 127,692 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Gellerman Maureen Marie | officer | Sale | 544 @ $174.38 | $95K | −4.3% of holding | +15.0% | +2.1% | 12,163 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 513 @ $168.07 | $86K | −0.4% of holding | +15.0% | +2.1% | 130,627 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 213 @ $169.33 | $36K | −0.2% of holding | +15.0% | +2.1% | 130,414 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 80 @ $170.17 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | +15.0% | +2.1% | 130,334 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 50 @ $177.65 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | +15.0% | +2.1% | 106,140 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Masciantonio Ronald James | officer | Sale | 818 @ $146.41 | $120K | −7.7% of holding | +3.1% | +46.6% | 9,858 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | Hill George | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $150.23 | $225K | −3.6% of holding | +1.0% | +42.6% | 39,817 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | Hill George | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $140.00 | $210K | −3.4% of holding | −5.8% | +30.9% | 42,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | SPECTER ERIC M | officer | Sale | 5,500 @ $130.77 | $719K | −9.0% of holding | +5.5% | +31.7% | 55,854 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Jhunjhunwala Amit | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $125.00 | $125K | −3.6% of holding | +5.9% | +30.0% | 26,590 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Jhunjhunwala Amit | officer | Sale | 700 @ $125.41 | $88K | −2.6% of holding | +5.9% | +30.0% | 25,890 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Masciantonio Ronald James | officer | Sale | 500 @ $123.33 | $62K | −4.0% of holding | +1.2% | +28.1% | 12,158 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Masciantonio Ronald James | officer | Sale | 158 @ $123.60 | $20K | −1.3% of holding | +1.2% | +28.1% | 12,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
185 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Lathi Dinesh S. | director | Gift | 110 | 14,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | Gellerman Maureen Marie | officer | Withheld for tax | 167 | 10,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lathi Dinesh S. | director | Award / grant | 138 | 14,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | MARKEE RICHARD L | director | Award / grant | 97 | 14,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | VAUGHN MIMI ECKEL | director | Award / grant | 96 | 5,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,247 | 85,574 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | SPECTER ERIC M | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,935 | 40,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Jhunjhunwala Amit | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,935 | 20,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Poliner Graham | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,916 | 15,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Gellerman Maureen Marie | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,869 | 10,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Poliner Graham | officer | Other acquisition | 31 | 18,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lastinger Rodney | officer | Award / grant | 3,618 | 3,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Lynch Robert | director | Award / grant | 976 | 976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bowman Karen R | director | Award / grant | 976 | 4,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | DEVINE MICHAEL F III | director | Award / grant | 1,663 | 17,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | VAUGHN MIMI ECKEL | director | Award / grant | 976 | 5,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Lathi Dinesh S. | director | Award / grant | 976 | 14,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | MARKEE RICHARD L | director | Award / grant | 976 | 14,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | SARGENT RONALD | director | Award / grant | 976 | 6,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Washington Zuhairah Scott | director | Award / grant | 976 | 7,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Jhunjhunwala Amit | officer | Award / grant | 590 | 24,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Gellerman Maureen Marie | officer | Award / grant | 252 | 12,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Award / grant | 2,107 | 90,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Poliner Graham | officer | Award / grant | 252 | 18,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Yatrakis Christos George | officer | Award / grant | 1,031 | 1,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | SPECTER ERIC M | officer | Award / grant | 758 | 44,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Lathi Dinesh S. | director | Award / grant | 134 | 13,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | MARKEE RICHARD L | director | Award / grant | 96 | 13,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | RYAN THOMAS M | director | Award / grant | 96 | 119,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | VAUGHN MIMI ECKEL | director | Award / grant | 96 | 4,862 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Withheld for tax | 812 | 89,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | SPECTER ERIC M | officer | Withheld for tax | 293 | 44,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Jhunjhunwala Amit | officer | Withheld for tax | 227 | 23,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Poliner Graham | officer | Withheld for tax | 103 | 18,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gellerman Maureen Marie | officer | Withheld for tax | 62 | 12,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Park Winifred | director | Withheld for tax | 2,580 | 35,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | BULL KENNETH R | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,011 | 90,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | SPECTER ERIC M | officer | Withheld for tax | 724 | 44,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Jhunjhunwala Amit | officer | Withheld for tax | 563 | 24,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Poliner Graham | officer | Withheld for tax | 442 | 18,349 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.