Issued 2026-09-16 at $52.41 · now $52.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FITB has typically landed between $45.81 and $59.70 — a range of −12.6% to +13.9% from the issuance price $52.41.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($52.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FITB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $52.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $52.41 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $53 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $49.85–$56.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $45.81–$59.7
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-01-05 | −81.7% | −81.7% | +0.6% |
| 2009-01-06 | −80.6% | −81.8% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-02 | −79.2% | −79.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-08 | +221.1% | +0.0% | +221.1% |
| 2009-03-12 | +158.8% | +0.0% | +158.8% |
| 2009-03-05 | +140.0% | −5.8% | +140.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$52.0B
market cap
$2.93
EPS (TTM)
19.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-19
next earnings
Revenue$12.9B
'20'25
Net income$2.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr19.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.67
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-42.24
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$48.00
- Analyst target · range $57.00–$67.00$62.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$52.41
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
−1.5%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.0%
n=19
Mar
42%
−1.4%
n=19
Apr
63%
+4.9%
n=19
May
53%
+2.1%
n=19
Jun
53%
−1.5%
n=19
Jul
84%
+6.8%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.6%
n=18
Nov
83%
+5.0%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.9%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Sefzik Peter L | officer | Sale | 18,767 @ $50.46 | $947K | −9.0% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 189,682 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Sefzik Peter L | officer | Sale | 435 @ $50.45 | $22K | −0.2% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,449 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Sefzik Peter L | officer | Sale | 398 @ $50.44 | $20K | −0.2% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,984 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Sefzik Peter L | officer | Sale | 200 @ $50.47 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 189,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Sefzik Peter L | officer | Sale | 100 @ $50.47 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 189,582 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Sefzik Peter L | officer | Sale | 100 @ $50.45 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,884 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Khanna Kevin J | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $50.77 | $203K | −4.9% of holding | −10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Khanna Kevin J | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $50.77 | $102K | −2.6% of holding | −10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Schramm Jude | officer | Sale | 3,501 @ $50.54 | $177K | −2.4% of holding | −4.6% | −0.9% | 141,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Schramm Jude | officer | Sale | 395 @ $50.55 | $20K | −0.3% of holding | −4.6% | −0.9% | 144,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Schramm Jude | officer | Sale | 7,170 @ $50.96 | $365K | −4.7% of holding | −5.3% | −2.5% | 145,356 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Schramm Jude | officer | Sale | 3,267 @ $50.97 | $167K | −2.1% of holding | −5.3% | −2.5% | 152,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Schramm Jude | officer | Sale | 547 @ $50.98 | $28K | −0.3% of holding | −5.3% | −2.5% | 155,793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Schramm Jude | officer | Sale | 16 @ $50.99 | $816 | −0.0% of holding | −5.3% | −2.5% | 156,340 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Spence Timothy | director | Sale | 3,420 @ $54.05 | $185K | −0.8% of holding | −14.8% | −8.6% | 435,342 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | Feiger Mitchell Stuart | director | Sale | 49,175 @ $53.00 | $2.6M | −37.6% of holding | −15.3% | −3.6% | 81,752 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Feiger Mitchell Stuart | director | Sale | 32,769 @ $53.20 | $1.7M | −27.7% of holding | −15.3% | −3.6% | 85,615 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Feiger Mitchell Stuart | director | Sale | 101 @ $53.21 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −15.3% | −3.6% | 85,514 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Feiger Mitchell Stuart | director | Sale | 77 @ $53.29 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | −15.3% | −3.6% | 21,612 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Feiger Mitchell Stuart | director | Sale | 9,139 @ $54.91 | $502K | −42.1% of holding | −15.8% | −4.7% | 12,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Feiger Mitchell Stuart | director | Sale | 5,674 @ $54.74 | $311K | −17.2% of holding | −15.8% | −4.7% | 27,241 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Feiger Mitchell Stuart | director | Sale | 581 @ $54.74 | $32K | −0.5% of holding | −15.8% | −4.7% | 120,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Schramm Jude | officer | Sale | 2,250 @ $48.50 | $109K | −1.7% of holding | −0.6% | +1.3% | 129,191 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Bayh Evan | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $41.21 | $82K | +2.4% of holding | +0.6% | +16.5% | 83,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Bayh Evan | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $41.23 | $41K | +1.2% of holding | +0.6% | +16.5% | 84,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Khanna Kevin J | officer | Sale | 14,000 @ $42.67 | $597K | −14.8% of holding | +3.3% | +20.4% | 80,873 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Lavender Kevin P | officer | Sale | 21,700 @ $43.55 | $945K | −14.2% of holding | −2.1% | −4.6% | 130,856 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Gibson Kala | officer | Sale | 8,998 @ $43.64 | $393K | −15.6% of holding | −2.1% | −4.6% | 48,513 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Leonard James C. | officer | Sale | 17,200 @ $44.26 | $761K | −6.6% of holding | −3.4% | −5.7% | 244,487 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Spence Timothy | director | Sale | 7,868 @ $44.10 | $347K | −2.1% of holding | −4.0% | −7.2% | 361,931 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
242 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Gibson Kala | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,821 | 59,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Gibson Kala | officer | Option exercise | 7,018 | 64,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Gibson Kala | officer | Option exercise | 7,018 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leonard James C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,667 | 294,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leonard James C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,041 | 290,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leonard James C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,939 | 297,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leonard James C. | officer | Option exercise | 9,654 | 301,614 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leonard James C. | officer | Option exercise | 8,248 | 303,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leonard James C. | officer | Option exercise | 8,772 | 296,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leonard James C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,753 | 291,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leonard James C. | officer | Option exercise | 4,965 | 295,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leonard James C. | officer | Option exercise | 8,248 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leonard James C. | officer | Option exercise | 8,772 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leonard James C. | officer | Option exercise | 4,965 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leonard James C. | officer | Option exercise | 9,654 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Gibson Kala | officer | Gift | 4,300 | 57,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Gibson Kala | officer | Gift | 4,300 | 57,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Blackburn Katherine H. | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 146,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Heminger Gary R. | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 162,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | MALLESCH EILEEN A | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 55,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | KERR DEREK J | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 17,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Van de Ven Michael G | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 41,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Akins Nicholas K | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 82,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Daniels C. Bryan | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 386,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Almodovar Priscilla | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 3,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Desmangles Laurent | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 15,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Bayh Evan | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 87,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Benitez Jorge L. | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 57,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Clement-Holmes Linda W | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 30,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Rogers Kathleen A | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 16,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Smith Barbara | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 43,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Feiger Mitchell Stuart | director | Award / grant | 2,838 | 30,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Lopper Jeffrey A | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,046 | 51,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Lopper Jeffrey A | officer | Option exercise | 3,835 | 53,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Lopper Jeffrey A | officer | Option exercise | 3,835 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Schramm Jude | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,332 | 156,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Schramm Jude | officer | Option exercise | 14,228 | 166,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Schramm Jude | officer | Option exercise | 14,228 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Schramm Jude | officer | Option exercise | 14,228 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Spence Timothy | director | Withheld for tax | 9,531 | 599,794 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-11 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-28 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2025-06-02 | 2025-05-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Greg Landsman | House | sale | 2025-04-08 | 2025-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-01 | $1–15K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2024-06-14 | 2024-05-07 | $15–50K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | purchase | 2024-06-14 | 2024-05-07 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.