Issued 2026-09-16 at $40.23 · now $40.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FISI has typically landed between $35.70 and $45.73 — a range of −11.3% to +13.7% from the issuance price $40.23.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($40.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FISI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $40.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $40.23 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $40.45 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $38.4–$42.5
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $35.7–$45.73
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-01-28 | −65.9% | −65.9% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-27 | −64.2% | −64.2% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-26 | −63.2% | −63.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +208.5% | +0.0% | +208.5% |
| 2009-03-11 | +202.4% | +0.0% | +202.4% |
| 2009-03-09 | +181.7% | +0.0% | +203.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Zupan Mark | director | Purchase | 608 @ $40.77 | $25K | +4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,909 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Plants William Jack II | officer | Purchase | 660 @ $30.12 | $20K | +12.0% of holding | +9.5% | +22.2% | 6,159 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-13 | BIRMINGHAM MARTIN KEARNEY | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $25.00 | $100K | +3.3% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 126,732 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Glaser Robert M | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $25.00 | $100K | +9.7% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 45,439 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | GULLO SAMUEL M | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $25.00 | $100K | +10.9% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 40,840 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Latella Robert N | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $25.00 | $100K | +33.3% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 16,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Plants William Jack II | officer | Purchase | 2,800 @ $25.00 | $70K | +131.0% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 4,937 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | PACOS GARY A. | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $25.00 | $50K | ownership Δ n/a | −6.0% | −12.4% | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Zupan Mark | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $25.00 | $50K | +20.7% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 11,674 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Collins Laurie R | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $25.00 | $50K | +73.6% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 4,719 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | DORN ANDREW W JR | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $25.00 | $50K | +5.8% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 36,423 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Burruano Samuel J Jr | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $25.00 | $50K | +19.6% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 12,206 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | HOLLIDAY SUSAN R | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $25.00 | $50K | +5.4% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 39,035 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | BOSWELL DONALD | director | Purchase | 800 @ $25.00 | $20K | +5.5% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 15,295 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | BYERS SANDRA L | other | Purchase | 800 @ $25.00 | $20K | ownership Δ n/a | −6.0% | −12.4% | 800 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | VanGelder Kim E | director | Purchase | 600 @ $25.00 | $15K | +2.2% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 27,713 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Quinn Kevin B | officer | Purchase | 400 @ $25.00 | $10K | +12.1% of holding | −6.0% | −12.4% | 3,705 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
99 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | PANZARELLA ANGELA J | director | Award / grant | 925 | 6,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finch Steven C. | director | Award / grant | 391 | 1,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bovenzi David | director | Award / grant | 391 | 1,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Burlew Dawn H | director | Award / grant | 313 | 22,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | HOLLIDAY SUSAN R | director | Award / grant | 1,282 | 41,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | DORN ANDREW W JR | director | Award / grant | 1,282 | 39,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | PANZARELLA ANGELA J | director | Award / grant | 1,282 | 5,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Latella Robert N | director | Award / grant | 1,282 | 32,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finch Steven C. | director | Award / grant | 1,282 | 1,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Zupan Mark | director | Award / grant | 1,282 | 15,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Schrader Robert L. | director | Award / grant | 1,282 | 2,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Glaser Robert M | director | Award / grant | 1,282 | 49,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | VanGelder Kim E | director | Award / grant | 1,282 | 30,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | HARTING BRUCE W | director | Award / grant | 1,282 | 7,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bovenzi David | director | Award / grant | 1,282 | 1,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Burlew Dawn H | director | Award / grant | 1,282 | 21,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | BIRMINGHAM MARTIN KEARNEY | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,847 | 137,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Plants William Jack II | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,044 | 8,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Quinn Kevin B | officer | Withheld for tax | 967 | 6,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Burruano Samuel J Jr | officer | Withheld for tax | 870 | 15,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | PACOS GARY A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 829 | 3,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Collins Laurie R | officer | Withheld for tax | 812 | 7,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Plants William Jack II | officer | Option exercise | 2,898 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | BIRMINGHAM MARTIN KEARNEY | officer | Option exercise | 10,672 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Burruano Samuel J Jr | officer | Option exercise | 2,416 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | BYERS SANDRA L | other | Option exercise | 690 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Collins Laurie R | officer | Option exercise | 2,254 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | PACOS GARY A. | officer | Option exercise | 2,302 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Quinn Kevin B | officer | Option exercise | 2,684 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Quinn Kevin B | officer | Option exercise | 2,684 | 7,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Collins Laurie R | officer | Option exercise | 2,254 | 8,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | BIRMINGHAM MARTIN KEARNEY | officer | Option exercise | 10,672 | 141,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | BYERS SANDRA L | other | Option exercise | 690 | 2,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Burruano Samuel J Jr | officer | Option exercise | 2,416 | 16,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Quinn Kevin B | officer | Option exercise | 2,684 | 7,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | PACOS GARY A. | officer | Option exercise | 2,302 | 4,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Plants William Jack II | officer | Option exercise | 2,898 | 9,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Collins Laurie R | officer | Option exercise | 2,254 | 8,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | BIRMINGHAM MARTIN KEARNEY | officer | Option exercise | 10,672 | 141,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | BYERS SANDRA L | other | Option exercise | 690 | 2,150 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.