Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.87 · now $2.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FIP has typically landed between $2.19 and $3.69 — a range of −23.8% to +28.7% from the issuance price $2.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,023 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-07-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FIP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.87 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.88 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.58–$3.19
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.19–$3.69
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-08-05 | −42.0% | −42.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-08-06 | −41.3% | −41.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-17 | −38.3% | −38.3% | +1.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-15 | +61.4% | +0.0% | +62.3% |
| 2025-04-11 | +56.9% | −0.6% | +56.9% |
| 2025-04-14 | +56.4% | −3.7% | +56.4% |
1,023 overlapping windows · 2022-07-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Fletcher Carl Russell IV | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.58 | $46K | +33.3% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-21 | Fletcher Carl Russell IV | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.48 | $45K | +50.0% of holding | −0.5% | +22.6% | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-23 | Fletcher Carl Russell IV | officer | Purchase | 20,000 @ $5.33 | $107K | ownership Δ n/a | +6.5% | −37.3% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-20 | Nicholson Kenneth J. | officer | Purchase | 500,000 @ $5.22 | $2.6M | +84.9% of holding | +17.1% | −32.9% | 1,088,582 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
18 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | LIF AIV 1, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 0 | 160,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | ROBINSON RAY M | director | Award / grant | 15,152 | 111,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | HANNAWAY JUDITH A | director | Award / grant | 2,020 | 14,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Hamilton James L. | director | Award / grant | 1,010 | 9,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | LIF AIV 1, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 0 | 160,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Hamilton James L. | director | Award / grant | 984 | 8,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | LIF AIV 1, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 0 | 160,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | LIF AIV 1, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 0 | 160,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Nicholson Kenneth J. | officer | Option exercise | 1,086,957 | 2,175,539 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Nicholson Kenneth J. | officer | Option exercise | 1,086,957 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | LIF AIV 1, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 0 | 160,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-26 | Hamilton James L. | director | Award / grant | 820 | 7,416 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Adams Joseph P. Jr. | director | Withheld for tax | 217,917 | 725,127 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Adams Joseph P. Jr. | director | Option exercise | 543,479 | 943,044 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Adams Joseph P. Jr. | director | Option exercise | 543,479 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | LIF AIV 1, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 0 | 160,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-07 | Hamilton James L. | director | Award / grant | 669 | 6,596 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-07 | HANNAWAY JUDITH A | director | Award / grant | 1,336 | 12,027 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.