FINV · TickerCove

FINVFinVolution GroupFinancial Services · Financial - Credit Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.34 · now $3.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FINV has typically landed between $2.68 and $3.95 — a range of −19.8% to +18.3% from the issuance price $3.34.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,201 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-11-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$3.34 · 2% of range

$3.27 low$7.49 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.4%

typical move · IQR 15.3%

−19.8%worst (p90)+18.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FINV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $3.34 (+0.0%)
typical $3.35 (+0.4%)
middle 50% $3.1–$3.61
90% range $2.68–$3.95

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,201 windows spanning 2017-11-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2017-11-17	−44.1%	−44.9%	+0.0%
2017-11-16	−43.8%	−44.6%	+0.6%
2017-11-20	−43.6%	−43.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2021-01-15	+120.1%	−3.0%	+123.9%
2021-01-19	+111.0%	−3.0%	+123.9%
2021-01-14	+106.6%	−10.5%	+106.6%

2,201 overlapping windows · 2017-11-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

44%

+1.3%

n=9

Feb

67%

+12.2%

n=9

Mar

33%

−2.6%

n=9

Apr

56%

+5.1%

n=9

May

67%

+1.2%

n=9

Jun

56%

+6.1%

n=9

Jul

44%

−3.2%

n=9

Aug

22%

−0.5%

n=9

Sep

11%

−7.4%

n=9

Oct

50%

−0.2%

n=8

Nov

50%

+0.4%

n=8

Dec

44%

−5.0%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-28	Xiang Bing	director	Sale	75,000 @ $1.07	$80K	−80.0% of holding	−7.3%	not yet — horizon still open	18,750	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

44 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-02	Li Tiezheng	director	Withheld for tax	328,770	4,616,670	Form 4
2026-06-01	Li Tiezheng	director	Award / grant	697,070	3,269,370	Form 4
2026-06-01	Li Tiezheng	director	Option exercise	697,070	2,572,300	Form 4
2026-06-01	Li Tiezheng	director	Option exercise	697,070	4,945,440	Form 4
2026-05-24	Xiang Bing	director	Option exercise	18,750	93,750	Form 4
2026-05-24	Xiang Bing	director	Option exercise	18,750	56,250	Form 4
2026-05-24	Ho Simon Tak Leung	director	Option exercise	12,500	12,500	Form 4
2026-05-24	Ho Simon Tak Leung	director	Option exercise	12,500	37,500	Form 4
2026-05-24	Lai Jimmy Y.	director	Option exercise	18,750	93,750	Form 4
2026-05-24	Lai Jimmy Y.	director	Option exercise	18,750	56,250	Form 4
2026-04-13	Wang Yuxiang	officer	Withheld for tax	453,545	7,065,140	Form 4
2026-04-13	Chen Pingping	officer	Withheld for tax	450,180	6,760,565	Form 4
2026-04-10	Chen Pingping	officer	Option exercise	966,140	0	Form 4
2026-04-10	Xu Jiayuan	officer	Award / grant	741,775	741,775	Form 4
2026-04-10	Xu Jiayuan	officer	Option exercise	741,775	0	Form 4
2026-04-10	Li Tiezheng	director	Award / grant	1,286,150	2,572,300	Form 4
2026-04-10	Xu Jiayuan	officer	Option exercise	741,775	4,451,615	Form 4
2026-04-10	Wang Yuxiang	officer	Option exercise	970,720	7,518,685	Form 4
2026-04-10	Wang Yuxiang	officer	Award / grant	970,720	970,720	Form 4
2026-04-10	Wang Yuxiang	officer	Option exercise	970,720	0	Form 4
2026-04-10	Chen Pingping	officer	Option exercise	966,140	7,210,745	Form 4
2026-04-10	Chen Pingping	officer	Award / grant	966,140	966,140	Form 4
2026-04-09	Li Tiezheng	director	Withheld for tax	48,195	4,248,370	Form 4
2026-04-08	Xu Jiayuan	officer	Option exercise	139,240	0	Form 4
2026-04-08	Xu Jiayuan	officer	Award / grant	139,240	139,240	Form 4
2026-04-08	Li Tiezheng	director	Award / grant	102,825	1,388,975	Form 4
2026-04-08	Li Tiezheng	director	Option exercise	102,825	1,286,150	Form 4
2026-04-08	Xu Jiayuan	officer	Option exercise	139,240	3,709,840	Form 4
2026-04-08	Li Tiezheng	director	Option exercise	102,825	4,296,565	Form 4
2026-04-06	Wang Yuxiang	officer	Withheld for tax	905,160	6,547,965	Form 4
2026-04-06	Chen Pingping	officer	Withheld for tax	586,110	6,244,605	Form 4
2026-04-06	Li Tiezheng	director	Withheld for tax	154,690	4,193,740	Form 4
2026-04-03	Wang Yuxiang	officer	Award / grant	2,012,235	2,012,235	Form 4
2026-04-03	Xu Jiayuan	officer	Option exercise	214,180	3,570,600	Form 4
2026-04-03	Wang Yuxiang	officer	Option exercise	2,012,235	0	Form 4
2026-04-03	Xu Jiayuan	officer	Award / grant	214,180	214,180	Form 4
2026-04-03	Xu Jiayuan	officer	Option exercise	214,180	0	Form 4
2026-04-03	Chen Pingping	officer	Award / grant	1,291,500	1,291,500	Form 4
2026-04-03	Chen Pingping	officer	Option exercise	1,291,500	0	Form 4
2026-04-03	Chen Pingping	officer	Option exercise	1,291,500	6,830,715	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i