FIGSFIGS, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Manufacturersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.90 · now $12.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FIGS has typically landed between $9.49 and $16.86 — a range of −26.5% to +30.7% from the issuance price $12.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,311 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-05-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FIGS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$9.49worst · -26.5%$16.86best · +30.7%
  • now $12.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.68 (-1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.93–$14.44
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.49–$16.86
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,311 windows spanning 2021-05-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-04-13−52.3%−52.3%+0.0%
2022-04-14−50.3%−50.4%+0.0%
2022-04-19−49.8%−49.8%+0.0%
3 best
2022-03-04+72.5%+0.0%+72.5%
2022-03-07+66.1%+0.0%+71.0%
2021-05-27+62.3%+0.0%+62.3%

1,311 overlapping windows · 2021-05-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
20%
−3.1%
n=5
Feb
40%
−2.0%
n=5
Mar
40%
−2.1%
n=5
Apr
60%
−3.8%
n=5
May
60%
−7.7%
n=5
Jun
83%
+11.1%
n=6
Jul
67%
+3.2%
n=6
Aug
67%
+8.8%
n=6
Sep
17%
−8.8%
n=6
Oct
20%
−4.8%
n=5
Nov
60%
+10.2%
n=5
Dec
40%
−0.0%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$17$72026-05-04: 2 insider sales, $802K — Hasson Heather L., Oughtred Sarah2026-04-02: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — Spear Catherine Eva, Oughtred Sarah2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $9.4M — Hasson Heather L.2026-02-05: 2 insider sales, $481K — Hasson Heather L., Oughtred Sarah2026-01-07: 1 insider sale, $121K — Oughtred Sarah2026-01-06: 1 insider sale, $566K — Spear Catherine Eva2025-11-04: 2 insider sales, $341K — Hasson Heather L., Oughtred Sarah2025-10-03: 1 insider sale, $73K — Oughtred Sarah2025-10-02: 1 insider sale, $428K — Spear Catherine Eva2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $453K — Spear Catherine Eva2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $501K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $341K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $687K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $481K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $9.4M2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $802K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Hasson Heather L. — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Oughtred Sarah — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Spear Catherine Eva — Sale on 2026-04-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Oughtred Sarah — Sale on 2026-04-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hasson Heather L. — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed same daydirector Hasson Heather L. — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Oughtred Sarah — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Oughtred Sarah — Sale on 2026-01-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Spear Catherine Eva — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hasson Heather L. — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Oughtred Sarah — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Oughtred Sarah — Sale on 2025-10-03, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Spear Catherine Eva — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Spear Catherine Eva — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-04Hasson Heather L.directorSale32,385 @ $14.33$464K−2.2% of holding−19.4%not yet — horizon still open1,433,807Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04Oughtred SarahofficerSale23,597 @ $14.33$338K−2.0% of holding−19.4%not yet — horizon still open1,129,791Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-02Spear Catherine EvadirectorSale62,335 @ $14.44$900K−3.4% of holding−14.2%not yet — horizon still open1,794,964Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-02Oughtred SarahofficerSale10,872 @ $14.44$157K−0.9% of holding−14.2%not yet — horizon still open1,153,388Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-03Hasson Heather L.directorSale556,327 @ $16.85$9.4M−30.8% of holding−10.3%−22.5%1,251,967Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-05Hasson Heather L.directorSale22,874 @ $10.56$242K−1.8% of holding+45.7%+19.7%1,251,967Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-05Oughtred SarahofficerSale22,690 @ $10.56$240K−2.7% of holding+45.7%+19.7%821,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-07Oughtred SarahofficerSale10,515 @ $11.50$121K−1.2% of holding−10.4%−26.2%834,830Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-06Spear Catherine EvadirectorSale49,734 @ $11.38$566K−2.6% of holding−6.9%−20.6%1,857,299Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04Hasson Heather L.directorSale23,356 @ $7.39$173K−1.8% of holding+48.9%+99.3%1,274,841Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04Oughtred SarahofficerSale22,745 @ $7.39$168K−2.6% of holding+48.9%+99.3%845,345Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-03Oughtred SarahofficerSale9,968 @ $7.36$73K−1.1% of holding+5.5%+90.8%868,090Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-02Spear Catherine EvadirectorSale62,213 @ $6.88$428K−3.2% of holding−0.3%+83.5%1,907,033Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13Spear Catherine EvadirectorSale65,866 @ $6.88$453K−3.2% of holding−0.2%+40.3%1,969,246Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04Oughtred SarahofficerSale99,834 @ $6.19$618K−10.2% of holding+4.1%+64.2%878,058Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03Hasson Heather L.directorSale1,961 @ $4.45$9K−0.6% of holding+21.7%+116.0%350,329Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-10Hasson Heather L.directorSale1,931 @ $4.83$9K−0.5% of holding−12.6%+23.3%352,290Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06Hasson Heather L.directorSale26,855 @ $5.96$160K−7.0% of holding−10.1%−2.0%354,221Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-04Hasson Heather L.directorSale3,076 @ $5.19$16K−0.8% of holding+15.9%−0.1%381,076Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

50 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-05Hasson Heather L.directorWithheld for tax30,1421,396,852Form 4
2026-08-05Oughtred SarahofficerWithheld for tax21,9621,088,165Form 4
2026-07-01Spear Catherine EvadirectorWithheld for tax61,5561,733,408Form 4
2026-07-01Oughtred SarahofficerWithheld for tax22,1971,110,127Form 4
2026-07-01Hasson Heather L.directorWithheld for tax6,8131,426,994Form 4
2026-06-03Antrum SheiladirectorAward / grant15,456115,663Form 4
2026-06-03Willhite John MartindirectorAward / grant15,4563,263,095Form 4
2026-06-03Lin Kenneth Jian-HongdirectorAward / grant15,456161,705Form 4
2026-06-03Marte Mario JesusdirectorAward / grant15,45686,046Form 4
2026-06-03WHELAN MELANIE ANYAdirectorAward / grant15,45655,683Form 4
2026-06-03Jao Hsiao YuehdirectorAward / grant15,45697,719Form 4
2026-06-03WILKE JEFFREY AdirectorAward / grant15,456227,577Form 4
2026-05-12WHELAN MELANIE ANYAdirectorAward / grant22,86322,863Form 4
2026-03-03Hasson Heather L.directorAward / grant214,2251,466,192Form 4
2026-03-03Oughtred SarahofficerAward / grant342,7601,164,260Form 4
2026-03-02Hasson Heather L.directorWithheld for tax657,0091,808,294Form 4
2026-03-02Hasson Heather L.directorOption exercise900,0002,465,303Form 4
2026-03-02Hasson Heather L.directorOption exercise900,0000Form 4
2026-03-02Hasson Heather L.directorOption exercise313,3361,565,303Form 4
2026-03-02Hasson Heather L.directorOption exercise313,3360Form 4
2025-08-12Hasson Heather L.directorAward / grant947,8681,298,197Form 4
2025-08-12Spear Catherine EvadirectorDisposition727,0970Form 4
2025-08-12Hasson Heather L.directorAward / grant2,863,8282,863,828Form 4
2025-08-12Hasson Heather L.directorDisposition727,0970Form 4
2025-08-12Hasson Heather L.directorAward / grant727,097727,097Form 4
2025-08-12Hasson Heather L.directorDisposition2,863,8280Form 4
2025-08-12Spear Catherine EvadirectorDisposition727,0970Form 4
2025-08-12Spear Catherine EvadirectorAward / grant727,097727,097Form 4
2025-08-12Spear Catherine EvadirectorAward / grant727,097727,097Form 4
2025-08-12Hasson Heather L.directorDisposition727,0970Form 4
2025-08-12Hasson Heather L.directorAward / grant727,097727,097Form 4
2025-08-12Hasson Heather L.directorDisposition2,863,8280Form 4
2025-08-12Hasson Heather L.directorAward / grant2,863,8282,863,828Form 4
2025-06-04WILKE JEFFREY AdirectorAward / grant29,412212,121Form 4
2025-06-04Lin Kenneth Jian-HongdirectorAward / grant29,412146,249Form 4
2025-06-04Marte Mario JesusdirectorAward / grant29,41270,590Form 4
2025-06-04WHELAN MELANIE ANYAdirectorAward / grant29,41240,227Form 4
2025-06-04Willhite John MartindirectorAward / grant29,4123,247,639Form 4
2025-04-01Jao Hsiao YuehdirectorAward / grant5,92352,851Form 4
2025-03-27WHELAN MELANIE ANYAdirectorAward / grant52,03752,037Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.