Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.06 · now $23.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FIG has typically landed between $15.06 and $31.30 — a range of −34.7% to +35.7% from the issuance price $23.06.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
263 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-07-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FIG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.06 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.33 (-7.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.32–$25.34
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.06–$31.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 263 windows spanning 2025-07-31 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-08-01 | −46.3% | −46.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | −43.1% | −43.1% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-07 | −41.0% | −42.6% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-30 | +53.2% | +0.0% | +53.2% |
| 2026-04-29 | +51.2% | +0.0% | +51.2% |
| 2026-02-03 | +41.7% | +0.0% | +46.0% |
263 overlapping windows · 2025-07-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−30.6%
n=1
Feb
100%
+13.4%
n=1
Mar
0%
−28.1%
n=1
Apr
0%
−16.3%
n=1
May
100%
+44.1%
n=1
Jun
0%
−29.1%
n=1
Jul
100%
+34.4%
n=1
Aug
50%
−13.1%
n=2
Sep
0%
−21.2%
n=2
Oct
0%
−3.9%
n=1
Nov
0%
−27.8%
n=1
Dec
100%
+3.9%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Mulligan Brendan | officer | Sale | 64,606 @ $25.73 | $1.7M | −9.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 653,911 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Mulligan Brendan | officer | Sale | 44,500 @ $26.35 | $1.2M | −6.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 609,411 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Herb Tyler | officer | Sale | 1,416 @ $26.29 | $37K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 249,386 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Mulligan Brendan | officer | Sale | 130,800 @ $30.15 | $3.9M | −15.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 728,052 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Mulligan Brendan | officer | Sale | 80,699 @ $29.21 | $2.4M | −8.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 858,852 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Mulligan Brendan | officer | Sale | 100 @ $30.89 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 727,952 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Herb Tyler | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $30.00 | $60K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 252,640 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Herb Tyler | officer | Sale | 1,840 @ $27.14 | $50K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 254,640 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 12,475 @ $25.39 | $317K | −1.6% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 786,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Rimer Daniel H. | director | Sale | 12,475 @ $25.39 | $317K | −1.6% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 786,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Voskanian Shaunt | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $27.91 | $837K | −1.7% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,698,620 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Rasmussen Kris | officer | Sale | 196,397 @ $25.53 | $5.0M | −2.1% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,234,587 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Melwani Praveer | officer | Sale | 24,200 @ $26.96 | $652K | −1.4% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,674,544 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Melwani Praveer | officer | Sale | 12,900 @ $26.29 | $339K | −0.8% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,698,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Voskanian Shaunt | officer | Sale | 7,726 @ $26.96 | $208K | −0.4% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,728,620 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Voskanian Shaunt | officer | Sale | 4,099 @ $26.30 | $108K | −0.2% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,736,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Melwani Praveer | officer | Sale | 2,900 @ $25.44 | $74K | −0.2% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,711,644 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Voskanian Shaunt | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $25.42 | $25K | −0.1% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,740,445 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Herb Tyler | officer | Sale | 709 @ $26.00 | $18K | −0.3% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 256,480 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Herb Tyler | officer | Sale | 1,536 @ $26.00 | $40K | −0.6% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 257,189 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Melwani Praveer | officer | Sale | 381,288 @ $25.13 | $9.6M | −18.1% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,725,716 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Rasmussen Kris | officer | Sale | 261,301 @ $25.07 | $6.6M | −2.7% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,492,946 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Mulligan Brendan | officer | Sale | 18,213 @ $25.00 | $455K | −1.9% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 951,571 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Voskanian Shaunt | officer | Sale | 11,219 @ $23.92 | $268K | −0.6% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,753,453 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Melwani Praveer | officer | Sale | 30,460 @ $20.48 | $624K | −1.7% of holding | +26.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,711,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Voskanian Shaunt | officer | Sale | 8,629 @ $20.62 | $178K | −0.5% of holding | +26.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,764,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Melwani Praveer | officer | Sale | 82,174 @ $22.75 | $1.9M | −4.5% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,750,824 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Voskanian Shaunt | officer | Sale | 67,229 @ $22.75 | $1.5M | −3.6% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,801,661 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Voskanian Shaunt | officer | Sale | 20,281 @ $23.89 | $484K | −1.1% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,781,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Melwani Praveer | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $23.69 | $43K | −0.1% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,749,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Herb Tyler | officer | Sale | 1,850 @ $26.40 | $49K | −0.7% of holding | −26.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 263,435 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Field Dylan | director | Sale | 174,430 @ $25.02 | $4.4M | −100.0% of holding | −28.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Rasmussen Kris | officer | Sale | 327,046 @ $25.07 | $8.2M | −3.2% of holding | −20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,771,529 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Mulligan Brendan | officer | Sale | 18,741 @ $25.04 | $469K | −1.9% of holding | −20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 987,986 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Rimer Daniel H. | director | Sale | 12,475 @ $24.36 | $304K | −1.5% of holding | −23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 822,325 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 12,475 @ $24.36 | $304K | −1.5% of holding | −23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 822,325 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Herb Tyler | officer | Sale | 669 @ $23.79 | $16K | −0.3% of holding | −23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 266,824 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Mulligan Brendan | officer | Sale | 4,817 @ $26.30 | $127K | −0.6% of holding | −30.0% | −25.9% | 825,644 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Rasmussen Kris | officer | Sale | 111,131 @ $30.38 | $3.4M | −1.1% of holding | −30.1% | −24.1% | 10,169,178 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Rasmussen Kris | officer | Sale | 39,400 @ $28.41 | $1.1M | −0.4% of holding | −30.1% | −24.1% | 10,309,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Rasmussen Kris | officer | Sale | 28,800 @ $29.49 | $849K | −0.3% of holding | −30.1% | −24.1% | 10,280,309 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Mulligan Brendan | officer | Sale | 4,817 @ $28.30 | $136K | −0.6% of holding | −30.1% | −24.1% | 830,461 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Herb Tyler | officer | Sale | 1,678 @ $28.47 | $48K | −0.9% of holding | −30.1% | −24.1% | 188,913 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Field Dylan | director | Sale | 237,713 @ $30.76 | $7.3M | −95.1% of holding | −25.4% | −11.1% | 12,287 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Field Dylan | director | Sale | 117,617 @ $30.30 | $3.6M | −67.4% of holding | −25.4% | −11.1% | 56,813 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Field Dylan | director | Sale | 59,430 @ $30.76 | $1.8M | −95.1% of holding | −25.4% | −11.1% | 3,070 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Field Dylan | director | Sale | 33,177 @ $31.44 | $1.0M | −58.4% of holding | −25.4% | −11.1% | 23,636 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Field Dylan | director | Sale | 23,636 @ $32.15 | $760K | −100.0% of holding | −25.4% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Field Dylan | director | Sale | 12,287 @ $31.48 | $387K | −100.0% of holding | −25.4% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Field Dylan | director | Sale | 3,070 @ $31.48 | $97K | −100.0% of holding | −25.4% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Herb Tyler | officer | Sale | 1,492 @ $32.00 | $48K | −0.8% of holding | −25.4% | −11.1% | 192,942 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Rasmussen Kris | officer | Sale | 51,359 @ $30.00 | $1.5M | −0.5% of holding | −22.4% | −24.6% | 10,367,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Voskanian Shaunt | officer | Sale | 8,554 @ $30.00 | $257K | −0.5% of holding | −22.4% | −24.6% | 1,580,181 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Purchase | 870,387 @ $24.32 | $21.2M | +145.9% of holding | −7.6% | −1.6% | 1,466,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Purchase | 42,362 @ $23.95 | $1.0M | +7.6% of holding | −7.6% | −1.6% | 596,465 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Purchase | 554,103 @ $25.90 | $14.4M | ownership Δ n/a | −6.4% | −7.8% | 554,103 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Mulligan Brendan | officer | Sale | 5,227 @ $26.00 | $136K | −0.6% of holding | −3.2% | −6.4% | 845,262 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Herb Tyler | officer | Sale | 1,492 @ $26.00 | $39K | −0.8% of holding | −3.2% | −6.4% | 194,434 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Rasmussen Kris | officer | Sale | 205,438 @ $25.01 | $5.1M | −1.9% of holding | +12.4% | −13.7% | 10,418,905 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Mulligan Brendan | officer | Sale | 5,227 @ $25.00 | $131K | −0.6% of holding | +12.4% | −13.7% | 850,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
170 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Mulligan Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,435 | 718,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Voskanian Shaunt | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,080 | 1,690,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Melwani Praveer | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,037 | 1,667,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Herb Tyler | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,838 | 250,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Lilly III John Osborne | director | Other acquisition | 330,306 | 799,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Lilly III John Osborne | director | Other acquisition | 5,460 | 24,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Other acquisition | 14,533 | 116,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Other acquisition | 2,215,239 | 17,721,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Other acquisition | 713,067 | 5,704,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Other acquisition | 143,536 | 287,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Other acquisition | 35,223 | 70,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Other acquisition | 58,892 | 130,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Field Dylan | director | Gift | 40,000 | 308,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Other acquisition | 58,892 | 71,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Other acquisition | 35,320 | 35,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Other acquisition | 143,536 | 143,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Other acquisition | 14,533 | 130,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Other acquisition | 713,067 | 6,417,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Reed Andrew Phillips | director | Other acquisition | 2,215,239 | 19,937,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Field Dylan | director | Gift | 1,250,000 | 36,737,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 23,150 | 763,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 703,594 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 55,684 | 1,015,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,758,691 | 50,293,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 23,150 | 763,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 703,594 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 55,684 | 1,015,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,758,691 | 50,293,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Rimer Daniel H. | director | Other acquisition | 23,150 | 763,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Rimer Daniel H. | director | Other acquisition | 703,594 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Rimer Daniel H. | director | Other acquisition | 55,684 | 1,015,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Rimer Daniel H. | director | Other acquisition | 2,758,691 | 50,293,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 23,150 | 763,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 703,594 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 55,684 | 1,015,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,758,691 | 50,293,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,758,691 | 50,293,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 55,684 | 1,015,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 703,594 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Index Ventures VI (Jersey) LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 23,150 | 763,550 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.