Issued 2026-09-16 at $991.35 · now $991.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FICO has typically landed between $835.19 and $1182.66 — a range of −15.8% to +19.3% from the issuance price $991.35.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($991.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FICO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $991.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $991.35 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,019 (+2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $941.73–$1,096
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $835.19–$1,183
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −50.8% | −50.8% | +0.3% |
| 2008-09-26 | −47.2% | −47.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −43.6% | −48.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-07-15 | +57.8% | +0.0% | +57.8% |
| 2009-07-09 | +55.3% | +0.0% | +55.3% |
| 2009-03-05 | +55.0% | +0.0% | +55.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$500.34
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$1,080
- Analyst target · range $1,270–$1,950$1,650
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$991.35
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Manolis Eva | director | Sale | 967 @ $1400.00 | $1.4M | −66.0% of holding | −21.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 498 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Manolis Eva | director | Sale | 520 @ $1227.63 | $638K | −60.2% of holding | −13.4% | −24.0% | 344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Rees Joanna | director | Sale | 358 @ $1360.00 | $487K | −3.1% of holding | −9.2% | −34.8% | 11,204 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Weber Steven P. | officer | Sale | 1,426 @ $1810.00 | $2.6M | −33.7% of holding | −16.1% | −49.6% | 2,804 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Manolis Eva | director | Sale | 521 @ $1825.83 | $951K | −60.2% of holding | −14.0% | −46.4% | 344 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | MCMORRIS MARC F | director | Sale | 240 @ $1809.53 | $434K | −49.8% of holding | −2.9% | −40.8% | 242 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 394 @ $1736.39 | $684K | −3.3% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 11,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 350 @ $1726.76 | $604K | −2.7% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 12,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 271 @ $1731.76 | $469K | −2.2% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 12,042 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 252 @ $1739.41 | $438K | −2.2% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 11,134 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 209 @ $1730.05 | $362K | −1.7% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 12,313 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 180 @ $1727.75 | $311K | −1.4% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 12,643 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 160 @ $1725.46 | $276K | −1.2% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 13,173 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 123 @ $1735.23 | $213K | −1.0% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 11,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 121 @ $1728.87 | $209K | −1.0% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 12,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 89 @ $1733.72 | $154K | −0.7% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 11,953 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 70 @ $1742.04 | $122K | −0.6% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 11,025 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 51 @ $1743.82 | $89K | −0.5% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 10,974 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 50 @ $1737.76 | $87K | −0.4% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 11,386 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 41 @ $1745.14 | $72K | −0.4% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 10,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 39 @ $1740.62 | $68K | −0.4% of holding | −1.1% | −48.9% | 11,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 467 @ $1630.61 | $761K | −1.0% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 45,767 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 360 @ $1647.24 | $593K | −0.8% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 42,847 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 356 @ $1640.62 | $584K | −0.8% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 43,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 340 @ $1639.36 | $557K | −0.8% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 44,223 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 323 @ $1633.81 | $528K | −0.7% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 45,120 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 315 @ $1629.61 | $513K | −0.7% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 46,234 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 242 @ $1652.56 | $400K | −0.6% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 42,296 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 239 @ $1626.90 | $389K | −0.5% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 46,549 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 222 @ $1619.96 | $360K | −0.5% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 47,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 201 @ $1636.12 | $329K | −0.4% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 44,794 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 200 @ $1642.55 | $329K | −0.5% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 43,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 188 @ $1631.90 | $307K | −0.4% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 45,579 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 179 @ $1624.61 | $291K | −0.4% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 46,964 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 176 @ $1625.85 | $286K | −0.4% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 46,788 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 174 @ $1643.99 | $286K | −0.4% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 43,373 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 166 @ $1645.91 | $273K | −0.4% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 43,207 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 158 @ $1653.80 | $261K | −0.4% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 42,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 153 @ $1622.11 | $248K | −0.3% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 47,149 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 136 @ $1632.87 | $222K | −0.3% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 45,443 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 134 @ $1620.92 | $217K | −0.3% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 47,302 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 125 @ $1635.16 | $204K | −0.3% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 44,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 120 @ $1641.44 | $197K | −0.3% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 43,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 117 @ $1636.97 | $192K | −0.3% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 44,677 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 114 @ $1638.27 | $187K | −0.3% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 44,563 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 109 @ $1650.16 | $180K | −0.3% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 42,638 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 109 @ $1617.08 | $176K | −0.2% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 47,740 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 100 @ $1651.17 | $165K | −0.2% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 42,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 100 @ $1648.18 | $165K | −0.2% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 42,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 99 @ $1608.13 | $159K | −0.2% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 48,050 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 82 @ $1617.83 | $133K | −0.2% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 47,658 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 72 @ $1613.20 | $116K | −0.2% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 47,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 64 @ $1613.95 | $103K | −0.1% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 47,855 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 59 @ $1611.99 | $95K | −0.1% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 47,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 6 @ $1623.09 | $10K | −0.0% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 47,143 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 6 @ $1615.11 | $10K | −0.0% of holding | +4.6% | −41.7% | 47,849 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 1,686 @ $1533.67 | $2.6M | −3.5% of holding | +5.8% | −29.3% | 46,043 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 1,097 @ $1539.73 | $1.7M | −2.4% of holding | +5.8% | −29.3% | 43,916 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 764 @ $1541.09 | $1.2M | −1.7% of holding | +5.8% | −29.3% | 43,152 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 640 @ $1534.84 | $982K | −1.4% of holding | +5.8% | −29.3% | 45,403 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
180 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | KELLY BRADEN R | director | Option exercise | 1,386 | 13,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | KELLY BRADEN R | director | Option exercise | 1,285 | 15,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | KELLY BRADEN R | director | Option exercise | 1,285 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | KELLY BRADEN R | director | Option exercise | 1,386 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Stansbury Henry Tayloe | director | Option exercise | 91 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Stansbury Henry Tayloe | director | Option exercise | 91 | 351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | KELLY BRADEN R | director | Option exercise | 1,682 | 12,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | KELLY BRADEN R | director | Option exercise | 1,682 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Manolis Eva | director | Option exercise | 967 | 1,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Manolis Eva | director | Option exercise | 967 | 967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Behl Nikhil | officer | Withheld for tax | 124 | 18,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Behl Nikhil | officer | Option exercise | 242 | 483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Leonard Michael S | officer | Award / grant | 237 | 237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Behl Nikhil | officer | Option exercise | 242 | 18,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Withheld for tax | 236 | 42,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Option exercise | 784 | 42,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | LANSING WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 784 | 18,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Behl Nikhil | officer | Withheld for tax | 998 | 18,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Behl Nikhil | officer | Option exercise | 2,194 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Behl Nikhil | officer | Option exercise | 2,194 | 19,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Weber Steven P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 310 | 2,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Weber Steven P. | officer | Option exercise | 706 | 3,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Weber Steven P. | officer | Option exercise | 706 | 706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | KELLY BRADEN R | director | Option exercise | 171 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Stansbury Henry Tayloe | director | Option exercise | 77 | 260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | MCMORRIS MARC F | director | Option exercise | 77 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | MCMORRIS MARC F | director | Award / grant | 99 | 99 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | MCMORRIS MARC F | director | Award / grant | 254 | 254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Rey David A | director | Award / grant | 182 | 182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Stansbury Henry Tayloe | director | Award / grant | 198 | 198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Stansbury Henry Tayloe | director | Option exercise | 77 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | MCMORRIS MARC F | director | Option exercise | 77 | 319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | KELLY BRADEN R | director | Award / grant | 363 | 363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | KELLY BRADEN R | director | Award / grant | 220 | 220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Manolis Eva | director | Award / grant | 508 | 508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | KELLY BRADEN R | director | Option exercise | 171 | 10,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | ARREDONDO FABIOLA R | director | Award / grant | 198 | 198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Manolis Eva | director | Option exercise | 154 | 498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | ARREDONDO FABIOLA R | director | Option exercise | 154 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Rees Joanna | director | Award / grant | 198 | 198 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-28 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-05-04 | 2026-04-22 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2026-03-16 | 2026-02-04 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-04 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.