Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.93 · now $23.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FHN has typically landed between $21.06 and $27.68 — a range of −12.0% to +15.7% from the issuance price $23.93.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FHN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.93 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.29 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $23.06–$25.52
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.06–$27.68
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −57.0% | −57.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −53.9% | −53.9% | +2.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −51.4% | −54.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-07-14 | +113.1% | +0.0% | +125.5% |
| 2008-07-15 | +79.7% | +0.0% | +93.1% |
| 2008-07-11 | +69.6% | −24.8% | +69.6% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+0.7%
n=18
Feb
47%
+1.2%
n=19
Mar
53%
−2.3%
n=19
Apr
37%
−0.6%
n=19
May
53%
−2.6%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.0%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.4%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.8%
n=19
Oct
44%
+2.1%
n=18
Nov
78%
+6.1%
n=18
Dec
67%
+3.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Sale | 6,724 @ $24.86 | $167K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 340,368 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Sale | 3,763 @ $24.86 | $94K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 340,368 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Sale | 3,502 @ $24.85 | $87K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 340,368 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Sale | 3,324 @ $24.86 | $83K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 340,368 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $24.84 | $25K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 340,368 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 24,115 @ $24.17 | $583K | −2.7% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 870,533 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 18,839 @ $24.14 | $455K | −2.0% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 919,333 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 10,101 @ $24.15 | $244K | −1.1% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 909,232 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 9,222 @ $24.16 | $223K | −1.0% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 896,360 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 4,577 @ $24.19 | $111K | −0.5% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 859,615 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Restel Anthony J | officer | Sale | 4,106 @ $24.34 | $100K | −0.7% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 619,132 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 3,912 @ $24.18 | $95K | −0.4% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 866,621 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 3,650 @ $24.16 | $88K | −0.4% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 905,582 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 2,902 @ $24.21 | $70K | −0.3% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 856,015 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 2,852 @ $24.21 | $69K | −0.3% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 853,163 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 2,429 @ $24.18 | $59K | −0.3% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 864,192 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 1,712 @ $24.16 | $41K | −0.2% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 894,648 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Restel Anthony J | officer | Sale | 1,613 @ $24.35 | $39K | −0.3% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 619,458 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 698 @ $24.20 | $17K | −0.1% of holding | +0.0% | −3.9% | 858,917 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Fleming Jeff L. | officer | Sale | 7,619 @ $21.74 | $166K | −5.6% of holding | +9.1% | +0.9% | 128,626 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | POPWELL DAVID T | officer | Sale | 155,149 @ $21.31 | $3.3M | −33.5% of holding | +6.2% | +7.9% | 307,432 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | POPWELL DAVID T | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $22.50 | $2.2M | −17.8% of holding | −1.9% | +1.4% | 462,581 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | POPWELL DAVID T | officer | Sale | 25,535 @ $22.20 | $567K | −4.4% of holding | −4.3% | +3.0% | 550,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | POPWELL DAVID T | officer | Sale | 8,247 @ $22.20 | $183K | −1.5% of holding | −4.3% | +3.0% | 554,239 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | POPWELL DAVID T | officer | Sale | 3,396 @ $22.21 | $75K | −0.6% of holding | −4.3% | +3.0% | 550,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | POPWELL DAVID T | officer | Sale | 832 @ $22.21 | $18K | −0.2% of holding | −4.3% | +3.0% | 553,407 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | LoCascio Tammy | director | Sale | 3,179 @ $22.25 | $71K | −0.9% of holding | −4.2% | −1.6% | 344,172 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | LoCascio Tammy | director | Sale | 3,002 @ $22.24 | $67K | −0.9% of holding | −4.2% | −1.6% | 349,334 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | LoCascio Tammy | director | Sale | 1,983 @ $22.25 | $44K | −0.6% of holding | −4.2% | −1.6% | 347,351 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | LoCascio Tammy | director | Sale | 1,921 @ $22.25 | $43K | −0.6% of holding | −4.2% | −1.6% | 342,251 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | LoCascio Tammy | director | Sale | 200 @ $22.25 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | −4.2% | −1.6% | 342,051 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 32,182 @ $21.12 | $680K | −1.7% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,914,607 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 24,372 @ $21.11 | $514K | −1.2% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,946,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 20,770 @ $21.13 | $439K | −1.1% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,893,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 16,458 @ $21.15 | $348K | −0.9% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,866,977 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 8,403 @ $21.14 | $178K | −0.4% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,884,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 3,300 @ $21.16 | $70K | −0.2% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,861,381 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 1,886 @ $21.16 | $40K | −0.1% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,864,681 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 596 @ $21.14 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,892,434 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 400 @ $21.13 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,893,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 396 @ $21.14 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,883,435 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 210 @ $21.16 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,866,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 207 @ $21.13 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,914,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 200 @ $21.15 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,866,777 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 200 @ $21.14 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,883,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 200 @ $21.12 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,914,407 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Sale | 200 @ $21.11 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 1,946,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
141 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Option exercise | 6,724 | 347,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Option exercise | 4,258 | 340,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Option exercise | 3,763 | 344,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Option exercise | 3,502 | 343,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Option exercise | 3,324 | 343,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 341,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Option exercise | 4,258 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Option exercise | 3,502 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Option exercise | 3,763 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Option exercise | 3,324 | 2,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Option exercise | 6,724 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 6,306 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | JORDAN D BRYAN | director | Withheld for tax | 46,272 | 999,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Restel Anthony J | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,628 | 658,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | LoCascio Tammy | director | Withheld for tax | 14,175 | 391,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | ARDOIN ELIZABETH A | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,879 | 336,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Dmuchowski Hope | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,814 | 180,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Hart Tanya L | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,907 | 62,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Hart Tanya L | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,448 | 59,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fleming Jeff L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 980 | 132,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fleming Jeff L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 737 | 131,661 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Argo Ashley W | officer | Withheld for tax | 599 | 41,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Hung Thomas | officer | Withheld for tax | 408 | 66,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Argo Ashley W | officer | Withheld for tax | 406 | 41,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Hung Thomas | officer | Withheld for tax | 360 | 65,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Compton John C | director | Award / grant | 14,070 | 178,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | DIETRICH JOHN W | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 25,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Stewart Cecelia D. | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 88,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Mody Sital K | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 9,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Maples Ricky E | director | Award / grant | 12,030 | 130,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | MOEHN MICHAEL L | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 10,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Brown Jeffrey Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 12,030 | 32,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Davidson Wendy P | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 102,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | KEMP SR JAMES MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 9,991 | 70,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Carboni Velia | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 46,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | PALMER VICKI R | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 118,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Restel Anthony J | officer | Other acquisition | 3,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Restel Anthony J | officer | Other acquisition | 50 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Dmuchowski Hope | officer | Award / grant | 24,939 | 190,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Restel Anthony J | officer | Award / grant | 38,793 | 675,863 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-05 | $1–15K |
| Steve Cohen | House | purchase | 2023-06-26 | 2023-05-26 | $15–50K |
| Zoe Lofgren | House | sale | 2023-06-06 | 2023-05-25 | $1–15K |
| Christopher L. Jacobs | House | purchase | 2023-01-20 | 2022-12-12 | $1–15K |
| Christopher L. Jacobs | House | sale | 2022-09-09 | 2022-07-18 | $1–15K |
| Steve Cohen | House | purchase | 2022-08-02 | 2022-07-27 | $15–50K |
| Christopher L. Jacobs | House | purchase | 2022-07-28 | 2022-06-21 | $15–50K |
| Zoe Lofgren | House | purchase | 2021-10-07 | 2021-09-30 | $1–15K |
| Steve Cohen | House | sale | 2020-06-18 | 2020-05-11 | $1–15K |
| Steve Cohen | House | sale | 2020-05-22 | 2020-05-07 | $1–15K |
| Steve Cohen | House | sale | 2020-05-22 | 2020-04-17 | $1–15K |
| Steve Cohen | House | sale | 2020-04-22 | 2020-03-26 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | sale | 2020-02-25 | 2020-01-06 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | purchase | 2020-01-16 | 2019-11-26 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.