FHB · TickerCove

FHBFirst Hawaiian, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $25.61 · now $25.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FHB has typically landed between $22.89 and $29.14 — a range of −10.6% to +13.8% from the issuance price $25.61.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,522 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-08-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($25.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$25.61 · 43% of range

$22.08 low$30.34 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.2%

typical move · IQR 10.6%

−10.6%worst (p90)+13.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FHB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $25.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $25.61 (+0.0%)
typical $25.67 (+0.2%)
middle 50% $24.31–$27.03
90% range $22.89–$29.14

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,522 windows spanning 2016-08-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−44.6%	−44.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-24	−40.2%	−43.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−39.9%	−39.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-10-19	+46.8%	+0.0%	+46.8%
2020-10-16	+43.1%	−1.9%	+43.1%
2020-10-28	+40.7%	+0.0%	+43.9%

2,522 overlapping windows · 2016-08-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+2.3%

n=10

Feb

40%

−0.2%

n=10

Mar

20%

−7.5%

n=10

Apr

40%

−1.1%

n=10

May

40%

−0.5%

n=10

Jun

70%

+2.8%

n=10

Jul

50%

+3.5%

n=10

Aug

40%

−1.5%

n=10

Sep

36%

−1.3%

n=11

Oct

50%

+1.4%

n=10

Nov

90%

+7.9%

n=10

Dec

60%

+2.5%

n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-10	Wo Craig Scott	director	Sale	500 @ $26.94	$13K	−100.0% of holding	−7.1%	−8.0%	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-06	Wo Craig Scott	director	Sale	1,000 @ $27.22	$27K	−100.0% of holding	−8.4%	−10.4%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06	Wo Craig Scott	director	Sale	470 @ $27.20	$13K	−94.0% of holding	−8.4%	−10.4%	30	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06	Wo Craig Scott	director	Sale	30 @ $27.21	$816	−100.0% of holding	−8.4%	−10.4%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-04	Arizumi Alan	officer	Sale	36,460 @ $25.35	$924K	−49.3% of holding	+3.3%	+2.3%	37,508	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-04	Arizumi Alan	officer	Sale	6,566 @ $25.34	$166K	−77.0% of holding	+3.3%	+2.3%	1,962	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

109 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-22	Moffatt Jim	director	Award / grant	2,613	16,854	Form 4
2026-04-22	Freas Tertia M.	director	Award / grant	2,613	7,124	Form 4
2026-04-22	Wo Craig Scott	director	Award / grant	2,613	50,808	Form 4
2026-04-22	Mugiishi Mark M	director	Award / grant	2,613	13,574	Form 4
2026-04-22	Thompson Kelly Ann	director	Award / grant	2,613	16,854	Form 4
2026-04-22	WASHINGTON VANESSA L	director	Award / grant	2,613	22,256	Form 4
2026-04-22	Fujimoto Michael K	director	Award / grant	2,613	18,263	Form 4
2026-02-28	Harrison Robert S	director	Withheld for tax	5,169	535,194	Form 4
2026-02-28	Moses James M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,448	54,259	Form 4
2026-02-28	Nakamura Lea M.	officer	Withheld for tax	775	30,887	Form 4
2026-02-28	Arizumi Alan	officer	Withheld for tax	621	48,639	Form 4
2026-02-28	Char Neill	officer	Withheld for tax	621	46,511	Form 4
2026-02-28	Blakeney Darlene N.	officer	Withheld for tax	579	23,395	Form 4
2026-02-28	Anonuevo Gina O. W.	officer	Withheld for tax	414	54,677	Form 4
2026-02-28	Arizumi Alan	officer	Withheld for tax	112	3,249	Form 4
2026-02-26	Harrison Robert S	director	Withheld for tax	6,549	540,363	Form 4
2026-02-26	Moses James M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,020	55,707	Form 4
2026-02-26	Char Neill	officer	Withheld for tax	1,012	47,132	Form 4
2026-02-26	Arizumi Alan	officer	Withheld for tax	729	49,260	Form 4
2026-02-26	Nakamura Lea M.	officer	Withheld for tax	719	31,662	Form 4
2026-02-26	Anonuevo Gina O. W.	officer	Withheld for tax	607	55,091	Form 4
2026-02-26	Blakeney Darlene N.	officer	Withheld for tax	567	23,974	Form 4
2026-02-26	Arizumi Alan	officer	Withheld for tax	112	3,361	Form 4
2026-02-25	Anonuevo Gina O. W.	officer	Award / grant	7,036	55,698	Form 4
2026-02-25	Harrison Robert S	director	Award / grant	41,544	546,912	Form 4
2026-02-25	Moses James M	officer	Award / grant	10,164	56,727	Form 4
2026-02-25	Arizumi Alan	officer	Award / grant	7,036	49,989	Form 4
2026-02-25	Arizumi Alan	officer	Award / grant	947	3,473	Form 4
2026-02-25	Char Neill	officer	Award / grant	7,428	48,144	Form 4
2026-02-25	Nakamura Lea M.	officer	Award / grant	7,036	32,381	Form 4
2026-02-25	Blakeney Darlene N.	officer	Award / grant	5,473	24,541	Form 4
2026-02-22	Harrison Robert S	director	Withheld for tax	5,779	505,368	Form 4
2026-02-22	Moses James M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,079	46,563	Form 4
2026-02-22	Char Neill	officer	Withheld for tax	754	40,716	Form 4
2026-02-22	Arizumi Alan	officer	Withheld for tax	483	42,953	Form 4
2026-02-22	Anonuevo Gina O. W.	officer	Withheld for tax	279	48,662	Form 4
2026-02-22	Nakamura Lea M.	officer	Withheld for tax	206	25,345	Form 4
2026-02-22	Blakeney Darlene N.	officer	Withheld for tax	206	19,068	Form 4
2026-02-22	Arizumi Alan	officer	Withheld for tax	82	2,526	Form 4
2026-02-17	Harrison Robert S	director	Withheld for tax	35,117	511,147	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i