FGBIFirst Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.49 · now $8.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FGBI has typically landed between $6.92 and $10.20 — a range of −18.5% to +20.1% from the issuance price $8.49.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FGBI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$6.92worst · -18.5%$10.2best · +20.1%
  • now $8.49 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.36 (-1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.74–$8.97
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.92–$10.2
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-11−41.3%−41.3%+2.5%
2025-10-21−40.9%−40.9%+0.0%
2025-10-28−40.5%−40.5%+0.0%
3 best
2025-12-31+72.4%+0.0%+72.4%
2025-12-10+69.6%+0.0%+69.6%
2025-12-05+68.6%+0.0%+69.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
+0.9%
n=20
Feb
25%
+1.4%
n=20
Mar
45%
−2.8%
n=20
Apr
55%
+3.3%
n=20
May
25%
+0.6%
n=20
Jun
55%
−1.4%
n=20
Jul
55%
+1.0%
n=20
Aug
25%
+0.1%
n=20
Sep
75%
+3.2%
n=20
Oct
40%
+0.2%
n=20
Nov
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Dec
65%
+1.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$11$42026-09-10: 2 insider purchases, $93K — WALKER ROBERT W …2026-09-09: 1 insider purchase, $5K — McAnally Bruce2026-09-08: 1 insider purchase, $9K — McAnally Bruce2026-09-03: 1 insider purchase, $4K — McAnally Bruce2026-09-02: 1 insider purchase, $4K — McAnally Bruce2026-08-31: 1 insider purchase, $4K — McAnally Bruce2026-08-19: 1 insider purchase, $69K — WALKER ROBERT W2026-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $152 — WALKER ROBERT W2026-08-14: 1 insider purchase, $31K — WALKER ROBERT W2026-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $46K — WALKER ROBERT W2026-07-24: 1 insider purchase, $4K — McAnally Bruce2026-07-16: 1 insider purchase, $20 — McAnally Bruce2026-06-30: 1 insider purchase, $794K — Smith Edgar R. III2026-06-22: 1 insider purchase, $4K — McAnally Bruce2026-04-30: 3 insider purchases, $3.0M — McAnally Bruce, Smith Edgar R. III, REYNOLDS MARSHALL T2026-03-31: 3 insider purchases, $1.6M — Smith Edgar R. III, REYNOLDS MARSHALL T, McAnally Bruce2025-12-31: 3 insider purchases, $1.9M — Smith Edgar R. III, McAnally Bruce, REYNOLDS MARSHALL T2025-12-11: 1 insider purchase, $26K — WALKER ROBERT W2025-12-10: 1 insider purchase, $34K — WALKER ROBERT W2025-12-04: 1 insider purchase, $9K — WALKER ROBERT W2025-11-25: 1 insider purchase, $9K — WALKER ROBERT W2025-11-20: 4 insider purchases, $98K — Smith Edgar R. III …2025-11-17: 1 insider purchase, $9K — Smith Edgar R. III2025-09-30: 3 insider purchases, $1.6M — Smith Edgar R. III, REYNOLDS MARSHALL T, McAnally Bruce2025-09-11: 1 insider purchase, $25K — WALKER ROBERT W2025-08-28: 1 insider purchase, $30K — WALKER ROBERT W2025-08-27: 1 insider purchase, $31K — WALKER ROBERT W2025-08-25: 1 insider purchase, $37K — WALKER ROBERT W2025-08: 3 open-market purchases, $97K2025-09: 4 open-market purchases, $1.7M2025-11: 6 open-market purchases, $115K2025-12: 6 open-market purchases, $1.9M2026-03: 3 open-market purchases, $1.6M2026-04: 3 open-market purchases, $3.0M2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $798K2026-07: 2 open-market purchases, $4K2026-08: 5 open-market purchases, $150K2026-09: 6 open-market purchases, $114K↑ buys↓ salesdirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McAnally Bruce — Purchase on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McAnally Bruce — Purchase on 2026-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McAnally Bruce — Purchase on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector McAnally Bruce — Purchase on 2026-09-02, filed 6 days after the tradedirector McAnally Bruce — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 8 days after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McAnally Bruce — Purchase on 2026-07-24, filed 46 days after the tradedirector McAnally Bruce — Purchase on 2026-07-16, filed 54 days after the tradedirector Smith Edgar R. III — Purchase on 2026-06-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McAnally Bruce — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 78 days after the tradedirector McAnally Bruce — Purchase on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Smith Edgar R. III — Purchase on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector REYNOLDS MARSHALL T — Purchase on 2026-04-30, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Smith Edgar R. III — Purchase on 2026-03-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector REYNOLDS MARSHALL T — Purchase on 2026-03-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McAnally Bruce — Purchase on 2026-03-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Smith Edgar R. III — Purchase on 2025-12-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McAnally Bruce — Purchase on 2025-12-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector REYNOLDS MARSHALL T — Purchase on 2025-12-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2025-12-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed 10 days after the tradedirector Smith Edgar R. III — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Smith Edgar R. III — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Smith Edgar R. III — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Smith Edgar R. III — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Smith Edgar R. III — Purchase on 2025-11-17, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Smith Edgar R. III — Purchase on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector REYNOLDS MARSHALL T — Purchase on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McAnally Bruce — Purchase on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2025-09-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2025-08-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WALKER ROBERT W — Purchase on 2025-08-25, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $7.88$47K+10.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open62,621Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-10WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $18.18$45K+48.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,702Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-09McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase250 @ $18.25$5K+16.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,750Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-08McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase500 @ $18.40$9K+50.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,500Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-03McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase200 @ $18.50$4K+25.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,000Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-02McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase200 @ $18.75$4K+33.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open800Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2026-08-31McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase200 @ $19.00$4K+50.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open600Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2026-08-19WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase3,593 @ $19.12$69K+223.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,202Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase8 @ $18.95$152+0.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,609Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-14WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase1,601 @ $19.22$31Kownership Δ n/a+3.8%not yet — horizon still open1,601Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-13WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase5,500 @ $8.40$46K+10.8% of holding+3.0%not yet — horizon still open56,621Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-24McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase199 @ $19.50$4K+99.0% of holding−9.2%not yet — horizon still open400Form 4 · filed 46 days after the trade
2026-07-16McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase1 @ $19.50$20+0.5% of holding−22.2%not yet — horizon still open201Form 4 · filed 54 days after the trade
2026-06-30Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase74,846 @ $10.61$794K+9.5% of holding−4.4%not yet — horizon still open859,246Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase200 @ $20.00$4Kownership Δ n/a−10.9%not yet — horizon still open200Form 4 · filed 78 days after the trade
2026-04-30McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase109,051 @ $9.17$1000K+32.8% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open441,587Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-30Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase109,051 @ $9.17$1000K+16.1% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open784,400Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-30REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorPurchase109,051 @ $9.17$1000K+1283.0% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open117,551Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-03-31Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase138,083 @ $7.77$1.1M+25.7% of holding+6.3%not yet — horizon still open675,349Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-31REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorPurchase32,176 @ $7.77$250K+1.6% of holding+6.3%not yet — horizon still open2,025,997Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-31McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase32,176 @ $7.77$250K+10.7% of holding+6.3%not yet — horizon still open332,536Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-31Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase208,996 @ $5.40$1.1M+63.7% of holding+70.4%+74.5%537,266Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-31McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase92,600 @ $5.40$500K+44.6% of holding+70.4%+74.5%300,360Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-31REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorPurchase46,297 @ $5.40$250K+2.4% of holding+70.4%+74.5%1,993,821Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-11WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase5,745 @ $4.53$26K+12.7% of holding+61.4%+114.2%51,121Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-10WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase7,500 @ $4.54$34K+19.8% of holding+68.2%+129.8%45,376Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase1,800 @ $4.99$9K+5.0% of holding+54.7%+96.2%37,876Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase1,800 @ $4.89$9K+5.3% of holding−0.5%+81.4%36,076Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade
2025-11-20Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase15,000 @ $4.97$75K+0.5% of holding+0.1%+80.6%2,867,467Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-20Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $4.81$12K+12.9% of holding+0.1%+80.6%21,907Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-20Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $4.85$7K+8.1% of holding+0.1%+80.6%20,063Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-20Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase800 @ $4.95$4K+0.2% of holding+0.1%+80.6%341,437Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-17Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $5.78$9K+8.8% of holding−1.8%+62.3%18,563Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-30Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase141,328 @ $8.05$1.1M+75.6% of holding−2.8%+11.2%328,270Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-30REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorPurchase31,056 @ $8.05$250K+1.6% of holding−2.8%+11.2%1,947,524Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-30McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase31,056 @ $8.05$250K+17.6% of holding−2.8%+11.2%207,760Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-11WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $8.20$25K+9.6% of holding+8.7%+0.2%34,276Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-28WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase3,750 @ $7.97$30K+13.6% of holding+0.2%+3.0%31,276Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase3,800 @ $8.05$31K+16.0% of holding−0.9%+4.6%27,526Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase4,700 @ $7.84$37K+24.8% of holding+2.6%+10.3%23,632Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-30Hood William KdirectorPurchase30,865 @ $8.10$250K+31.3% of holding+2.6%−48.6%129,325Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-30Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase30,865 @ $8.10$250K+3.7% of holding+2.6%−48.6%870,961Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-30McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase30,865 @ $8.10$250K+21.2% of holding+2.6%−48.6%176,704Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-30REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorPurchase30,865 @ $8.10$250K+1.6% of holding+2.6%−48.6%1,916,468Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-30WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase8,000 @ $8.10$65K+80.0% of holding+2.6%−48.6%18,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $9.12$27K+42.9% of holding−12.6%−54.8%10,000Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-05-12Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase6,725 @ $9.66$65K+53.0% of holding−13.6%−54.9%19,407Form 4 · filed 11 days after the trade
2025-04-03Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase1,337 @ $7.67$10K+11.8% of holding+16.3%−13.3%12,682Form 4 · filed 18 days after the trade
2025-04-02Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase98,460 @ $8.47$834Kownership Δ n/a+19.9%−17.3%98,460Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-02Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorPurchase3,896 @ $7.85$31K+52.3% of holding+19.9%−17.3%11,345Form 4 · filed 19 days after the trade
2025-04-01REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorPurchase8,460 @ $8.47$72Kownership Δ n/a+27.3%−15.7%8,460Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31Hood William KdirectorPurchase98,460 @ $8.47$834Kownership Δ n/a+23.0%−15.3%98,460Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31McAnally BrucedirectorPurchase24,615 @ $8.47$208K+20.3% of holding+23.0%−15.3%145,839Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31WALKER ROBERT WdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $8.47$51Kownership Δ n/a+23.0%−15.3%6,000Form 4 · filed 30 days after the trade
2025-03-31Dosch EricofficerPurchase100 @ $8.47$847+0.4% of holding+23.0%−15.3%28,396Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

19 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Dosch EricofficerCode L100482Form 4
2026-08-27Dosch EricofficerCode L1001,032Form 4
2025-12-09Dosch EricofficerCode L100932Form 4
2025-12-08Dosch EricofficerCode L100832Form 4
2025-09-08Dosch EricofficerCode L5050Form 4
2025-09-08Dosch EricofficerCode L50100Form 4
2025-09-08Dosch EricofficerCode L100382Form 4
2025-09-05Dosch EricofficerCode L50100Form 4
2025-09-05Dosch EricofficerCode L5050Form 4
2025-09-05Dosch EricofficerCode L100282Form 4
2025-09-05Dosch EricofficerCode L56282Form 4
2025-09-04Dosch EricofficerCode L100732Form 4
2025-09-04Dosch EricofficerCode L44226Form 4
2025-08-26WALKER ROBERT WdirectorCode L9423,726Form 4
2025-08-08WALKER ROBERT WdirectorCode L23218,932Form 4
2025-08-07WALKER ROBERT WdirectorCode L70018,700Form 4
2025-06-30Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorAward / grant1,981,5062,852,467Form 4
2025-06-30Smith Edgar R. IIIdirectorAward / grant88,482186,942Form 4
2025-05-19WALKER ROBERT WdirectorCode L1,0007,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.