Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.05 · now $23.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FG has typically landed between $18.83 and $27.41 — a range of −18.3% to +18.9% from the issuance price $23.05.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
923 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-11-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.05 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.36 (+1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21.49–$25.23
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.83–$27.41
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-02-15 | −32.3% | −32.3% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-16 | −27.2% | −27.9% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-14 | −27.2% | −27.2% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-10-25 | +46.1% | +0.0% | +46.1% |
| 2023-10-26 | +45.4% | +0.0% | +45.4% |
| 2023-10-24 | +42.5% | −1.8% | +42.5% |
923 overlapping windows · 2022-11-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $20.99 | $210K | +0.9% of holding | +18.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,107,128 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | Doka Celina J. Wang | director | Purchase | 4,760 @ $20.98 | $100K | +17.4% of holding | +18.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,071 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $29.56 | $148K | +0.4% of holding | −8.7% | −12.2% | 1,117,396 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $29.88 | $149K | +0.4% of holding | +0.7% | −19.6% | 1,146,419 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-18 | Punjabi Leena | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $33.81 | $101K | −4.5% of holding | −14.3% | −27.3% | 64,064 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $34.02 | $238K | +0.8% of holding | −14.7% | −39.3% | 908,745 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-19 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $31.88 | $191K | +0.7% of holding | −2.1% | −15.2% | 900,964 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $32.11 | $161K | +0.6% of holding | −3.1% | −11.0% | 894,964 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-15 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $30.78 | $462K | +1.7% of holding | +0.2% | −6.8% | 889,964 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-12 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $31.31 | $470K | +1.7% of holding | +0.6% | −12.3% | 874,964 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-09 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $30.80 | $308K | +1.2% of holding | −0.3% | −16.1% | 859,860 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-27 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $35.96 | $360K | +1.2% of holding | +0.4% | −27.5% | 849,584 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-27 | Gravelle Michael L | officer | Purchase | 7,000 @ $36.00 | $252K | +26.4% of holding | +0.4% | −27.5% | 33,540 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $35.65 | $356K | +1.2% of holding | +5.7% | −22.2% | 839,584 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-25 | Doka Celina J. Wang | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $35.24 | $106K | +16.8% of holding | +5.7% | −22.2% | 20,875 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,500,000 @ $33.60 | $151.2M | +4.2% of holding | +6.0% | −20.3% | 110,483,243 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $35.03 | $350K | +1.2% of holding | +6.0% | −20.3% | 829,584 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Bailey Michael H | officer | Award / grant | 26,817 | 26,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | QUIRK RAYMOND R | director | Award / grant | 1,009 | 13,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Ammerman Douglas K | director | Award / grant | 816 | 64,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nolan Michael Joseph | director | Award / grant | 1,009 | 81,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Murphy Conor | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,566 | 195,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Nolan Michael Joseph | director | Award / grant | 1,067 | 79,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | QUIRK RAYMOND R | director | Award / grant | 1,067 | 12,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ammerman Douglas K | director | Award / grant | 863 | 64,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Gravelle Michael L | officer | Withheld for tax | 855 | 52,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Withheld for tax | 20,846 | 1,097,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | FOLEY WILLIAM P II | director | Withheld for tax | 12,318 | 791,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Young Wendy J.B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,142 | 105,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Nolan Michael Joseph | director | Award / grant | 941 | 78,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Ammerman Douglas K | director | Award / grant | 762 | 63,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | QUIRK RAYMOND R | director | Award / grant | 941 | 11,812 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | QUIRK RAYMOND R | director | Other acquisition | 132,479 | 298,610 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Nolan Michael Joseph | director | Other acquisition | 20,947 | 77,985 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Ammerman Douglas K | director | Other acquisition | 8,298 | 62,462 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Other acquisition | 5,473 | 1,112,396 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 16,280,204 | 94,203,039 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | FOLEY WILLIAM P II | director | Withheld for tax | 54,152 | 1,070,966 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Withheld for tax | 39,588 | 1,106,730 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Young Wendy J.B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,934 | 107,755 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Currier John David Jr. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,609 | 78,518 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Punjabi Leena | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,343 | 80,910 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Withheld for tax | 28,335 | 1,141,419 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | FOLEY WILLIAM P II | director | Withheld for tax | 20,995 | 1,125,118 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Young Wendy J.B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,037 | 114,723 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Currier John David Jr. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,074 | 84,148 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Punjabi Leena | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,724 | 83,253 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Murphy Conor | officer | Award / grant | 122,587 | 204,830 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Doka Celina J. Wang | director | Award / grant | 6,436 | 27,311 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Ammerman Douglas K | director | Award / grant | 6,436 | 54,164 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Young Wendy J.B. | officer | Award / grant | 38,769 | 119,760 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Martinez Douglas | director | Award / grant | 6,436 | 26,532 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Nolan Michael Joseph | director | Award / grant | 6,436 | 57,038 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Blunt Christopher O | director | Award / grant | 260,497 | 1,169,754 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Punjabi Leena | officer | Award / grant | 21,913 | 85,977 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Gravelle Michael L | officer | Award / grant | 9,194 | 42,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | FOLEY WILLIAM P II | director | Award / grant | 199,204 | 1,146,113 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.