Issued 2026-09-25 at $443.06 · now $443.06 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, FFIV has typically landed between $394.50 and $500.60 — a range of −11.0% to +13.0% from the issuance price $443.06.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($443.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FFIV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $443.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $443.06 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $452.09 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $429.58–$474.6
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $394.5–$500.6
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-08-28 | −37.5% | −37.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-16 | −37.1% | −37.1% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-20 | −36.0% | −36.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-04-09 | +51.7% | +0.0% | +51.7% |
| 2008-04-15 | +50.1% | +0.0% | +51.0% |
| 2008-04-17 | +46.9% | +0.0% | +46.9% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$22.1B
market cap
$12.19
EPS (TTM)
32.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-27
next earnings
Revenue$3.1B
'20'25
Net income$692M
'20'25
Free cash flow$906M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr22.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr19.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.14
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$389.63
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$416.96
- Analyst target · range $292.00–$475.00$450.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$443.06
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.7%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Mar
47%
−0.9%
n=19
Apr
37%
+2.5%
n=19
May
74%
+4.7%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.5%
n=19
Jul
68%
+5.6%
n=19
Aug
32%
−0.7%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.5%
n=18
Nov
83%
+5.7%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | MONTOYA MICHAEL F | director | Sale | 1,296 @ $406.24 | $526K | −22.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,439 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | MONTOYA MICHAEL F | director | Sale | 1,173 @ $411.50 | $483K | −29.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,749 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | MONTOYA MICHAEL F | director | Sale | 920 @ $412.38 | $379K | −33.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,829 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | MONTOYA MICHAEL F | director | Sale | 440 @ $413.31 | $182K | −24.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | MONTOYA MICHAEL F | director | Sale | 277 @ $410.37 | $114K | −6.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,922 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | MONTOYA MICHAEL F | director | Sale | 240 @ $408.96 | $98K | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,199 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Maddison John Anthony | officer | Sale | 204 @ $406.24 | $83K | −15.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | MONTOYA MICHAEL F | director | Sale | 80 @ $414.18 | $33K | −5.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,309 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | FOUNTAIN THOMAS DEAN | officer | Sale | 1,208 @ $414.63 | $501K | −13.0% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $410.94 | $452K | −0.7% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,471 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 996 @ $412.90 | $411K | −0.7% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,833 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 642 @ $411.82 | $264K | −0.4% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,829 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 320 @ $414.10 | $133K | −0.2% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,513 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 284 @ $415.03 | $118K | −0.2% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 200 @ $415.97 | $83K | −0.1% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,029 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 200 @ $409.68 | $82K | −0.1% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 150,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 40 @ $416.83 | $17K | −0.0% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 146,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Maddison John Anthony | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $405.85 | $406K | −42.5% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,353 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WHALEN CHAD MICHAEL | officer | Sale | 703 @ $404.86 | $285K | −3.2% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Werner Edward Cooper | officer | Sale | 599 @ $405.92 | $243K | −59.6% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | OKEKE ANGELIQUE M | officer | Sale | 515 @ $404.49 | $208K | −18.7% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,240 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | ANAND KUNAL | officer | Sale | 392 @ $404.63 | $159K | −3.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | MEHTA NIKHIL RAMESH | director | Sale | 992 @ $390.07 | $387K | −11.4% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,699 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | MEHTA NIKHIL RAMESH | director | Sale | 943 @ $387.07 | $365K | −8.5% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | MEHTA NIKHIL RAMESH | director | Sale | 717 @ $388.10 | $278K | −7.1% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,383 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | MEHTA NIKHIL RAMESH | director | Sale | 692 @ $388.68 | $269K | −7.4% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,691 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | MEHTA NIKHIL RAMESH | director | Sale | 458 @ $390.93 | $179K | −5.9% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,241 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | MEHTA NIKHIL RAMESH | director | Sale | 198 @ $391.72 | $78K | −2.7% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,043 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Buse Elizabeth | director | Sale | 626 @ $399.29 | $250K | −10.9% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,107 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Buse Elizabeth | director | Sale | 214 @ $398.53 | $85K | −3.6% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Buse Elizabeth | director | Sale | 120 @ $400.58 | $48K | −2.3% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Buse Elizabeth | director | Sale | 40 @ $401.05 | $16K | −0.8% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,947 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Werner Edward Cooper | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $400.00 | $1.0M | −86.0% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | WHALEN CHAD MICHAEL | officer | Sale | 6,200 @ $350.19 | $2.2M | −22.9% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,832 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Werner Edward Cooper | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $350.00 | $525K | −34.0% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,906 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 1,332 @ $336.92 | $449K | −0.9% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,120 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | FOUNTAIN THOMAS DEAN | officer | Sale | 1,328 @ $330.58 | $439K | −14.1% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,060 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 1,268 @ $337.78 | $428K | −0.9% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 480 @ $338.60 | $163K | −0.3% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,372 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 383 @ $339.88 | $130K | −0.3% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 146,989 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 200 @ $332.52 | $67K | −0.1% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 150,532 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 80 @ $335.27 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 150,452 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 40 @ $331.05 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 150,732 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | ANAND KUNAL | officer | Sale | 3,123 @ $322.33 | $1.0M | −20.4% of holding | +17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Maddison John Anthony | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $322.33 | $322K | −31.8% of holding | +17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | OKEKE ANGELIQUE M | officer | Sale | 842 @ $322.33 | $271K | −28.5% of holding | +17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | WHALEN CHAD MICHAEL | officer | Sale | 704 @ $330.30 | $233K | −2.5% of holding | +17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,032 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Werner Edward Cooper | officer | Sale | 599 @ $322.33 | $193K | −12.0% of holding | +17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 3,334 @ $300.00 | $1.0M | −2.2% of holding | −6.9% | +32.8% | 146,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Werner Edward Cooper | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $300.00 | $300K | −18.9% of holding | −6.9% | +32.8% | 4,305 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | WHALEN CHAD MICHAEL | officer | Sale | 688 @ $277.05 | $191K | −2.5% of holding | +9.7% | +21.3% | 26,329 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 995 @ $286.20 | $285K | −0.7% of holding | +10.0% | +24.4% | 150,443 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 720 @ $285.03 | $205K | −0.5% of holding | +10.0% | +24.4% | 151,438 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 693 @ $280.73 | $195K | −0.5% of holding | +10.0% | +24.4% | 152,958 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Werner Edward Cooper | officer | Sale | 560 @ $280.56 | $157K | −9.0% of holding | +10.0% | +24.4% | 5,674 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 360 @ $284.13 | $102K | −0.2% of holding | +10.0% | +24.4% | 152,158 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 307 @ $279.73 | $86K | −0.2% of holding | +10.0% | +24.4% | 153,651 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 280 @ $281.99 | $79K | −0.2% of holding | +10.0% | +24.4% | 152,678 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Werner Edward Cooper | officer | Sale | 209 @ $286.39 | $60K | −3.8% of holding | +10.0% | +24.4% | 5,305 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Sale | 160 @ $282.71 | $45K | −0.1% of holding | +10.0% | +24.4% | 152,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
194 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | OKEKE ANGELIQUE M | officer | Award / grant | 3,002 | 3,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Peterman Catherine A | officer | Award / grant | 8,618 | 8,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Withheld for tax | 2,451 | 150,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | FOUNTAIN THOMAS DEAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,492 | 9,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | WHALEN CHAD MICHAEL | officer | Withheld for tax | 911 | 22,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | MONTOYA MICHAEL F | director | Withheld for tax | 840 | 5,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | ANAND KUNAL | officer | Withheld for tax | 506 | 12,978 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | OKEKE ANGELIQUE M | officer | Withheld for tax | 415 | 2,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Werner Edward Cooper | officer | Withheld for tax | 388 | 1,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Maddison John Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 250 | 2,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Option exercise | 6,233 | 153,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | WHALEN CHAD MICHAEL | officer | Option exercise | 2,318 | 23,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | FOUNTAIN THOMAS DEAN | officer | Option exercise | 2,700 | 10,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | FOUNTAIN THOMAS DEAN | officer | Option exercise | 708 | 6,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | OKEKE ANGELIQUE M | officer | Option exercise | 238 | 2,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | ANAND KUNAL | officer | Option exercise | 622 | 3,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | OKEKE ANGELIQUE M | officer | Option exercise | 113 | 114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | OKEKE ANGELIQUE M | officer | Option exercise | 1,060 | 3,170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | MONTOYA MICHAEL F | director | Option exercise | 1,602 | 8,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | ANAND KUNAL | officer | Option exercise | 668 | 6,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | FOUNTAIN THOMAS DEAN | officer | Option exercise | 1,042 | 1,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Maddison John Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 454 | 4,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | OKEKE ANGELIQUE M | officer | Option exercise | 334 | 3,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | ANAND KUNAL | officer | Option exercise | 1,290 | 13,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Maddison John Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 454 | 2,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | MONTOYA MICHAEL F | director | Option exercise | 2,136 | 6,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Werner Edward Cooper | officer | Option exercise | 534 | 4,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | OKEKE ANGELIQUE M | officer | Option exercise | 375 | 2,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Werner Edward Cooper | officer | Option exercise | 453 | 2,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | MONTOYA MICHAEL F | director | Option exercise | 534 | 4,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Option exercise | 2,523 | 2,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | WHALEN CHAD MICHAEL | officer | Option exercise | 668 | 6,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Werner Edward Cooper | officer | Option exercise | 987 | 1,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | WHALEN CHAD MICHAEL | officer | Option exercise | 933 | 933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Option exercise | 2,113 | 10,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | WHALEN CHAD MICHAEL | officer | Option exercise | 717 | 3,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Option exercise | 1,597 | 14,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | FOUNTAIN THOMAS DEAN | officer | Option exercise | 950 | 4,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Munroe Gavin | director | Award / grant | 700 | 700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | ANAND KUNAL | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,049 | 15,317 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-11-14 | 2025-10-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-02-05 | 2024-01-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-07-11 | 2023-06-26 | $1–15K |
| Dan Sullivan | Senate | sale | 2022-12-21 | 2022-11-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-07-07 | 2022-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2020-04-20 | 2020-03-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2020-03-09 | 2020-02-11 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2020-03-09 | 2020-02-11 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2020-02-10 | 2020-01-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2019-11-12 | 2019-10-21 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2018-05-10 | 2018-04-03 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.