FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.32 · now $33.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FFIN has typically landed between $29.25 and $37.69 — a range of −12.2% to +13.1% from the issuance price $33.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FFIN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$29.25worst · -12.2%$37.69best · +13.1%
  • now $33.32 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33.15 (-0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $31.3–$34.99
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.25–$37.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-11−31.1%−31.1%+1.1%
2020-02-13−30.7%−31.9%+0.0%
2020-02-18−30.7%−30.7%+1.0%
3 best
2024-06-26+38.1%−0.1%+38.1%
2024-06-25+35.6%+0.0%+35.6%
2024-06-21+34.1%+0.0%+34.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−2.4%
n=20
Feb
65%
+1.6%
n=20
Mar
60%
+0.8%
n=20
Apr
60%
+1.1%
n=20
May
65%
+0.8%
n=20
Jun
55%
+2.8%
n=20
Jul
60%
+3.7%
n=20
Aug
40%
−1.6%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.4%
n=20
Oct
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Nov
75%
+5.1%
n=20
Dec
55%
−0.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$37$282026-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $104K — Denny Michael B.2026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $524K — Butler Ronald David II2026-07-24: 1 insider purchase, $24K — Nickles Robert Clark Jr2026-06-11: 1 insider purchase, $33K — Edwards Murray Hamilton2026-05-05: 1 insider purchase, $21K — Nickles Robert Clark Jr2026-03-13: 1 insider purchase, $29K — Edwards Murray Hamilton2026-03-12: 2 insider purchases, $73K — Haney Geoff, TROTTER JOHNNY2026-03-09: 2 insider purchases, $59K — Hickox Michelle S …2026-03-06: 2 insider purchases, $103K — Davis Sally Pope, Goodrich Brian D.2026-03-05: 2 insider purchases, $167K — TROTTER JOHNNY, Goodrich Brian D.2026-03-02: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Davis Sally Pope2026-02-20: 1 insider purchase, $338K — Haney Geoff2026-02-05: 1 insider purchase, $17K — Edwards Murray Hamilton2026-02-02: 1 insider purchase, $20K — Nickles Robert Clark Jr2025-10-31: 1 insider purchase, $52K — Davis Sally Pope2025-10-29: 2 insider purchases, $52K — Bailey David William, Nickles Robert Clark Jr2025-10-28: 1 insider purchase, $62K — Hickox Michelle S2025-10: 4 open-market purchases, $166K2026-02: 3 open-market purchases, $376K2026-03: 10 open-market purchases, $481K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $21K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $33K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $24K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $104K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $524K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Denny Michael B. — Purchase on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Butler Ronald David II — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Nickles Robert Clark Jr — Purchase on 2026-07-24, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Edwards Murray Hamilton — Purchase on 2026-06-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Nickles Robert Clark Jr — Purchase on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Edwards Murray Hamilton — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Haney Geoff — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TROTTER JOHNNY — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hickox Michelle S — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hickox Michelle S — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Davis Sally Pope — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Goodrich Brian D. — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector TROTTER JOHNNY — Purchase on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Goodrich Brian D. — Purchase on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Davis Sally Pope — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Haney Geoff — Purchase on 2026-02-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Edwards Murray Hamilton — Purchase on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Nickles Robert Clark Jr — Purchase on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Davis Sally Pope — Purchase on 2025-10-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Bailey David William — Purchase on 2025-10-29, filed same daydirector Nickles Robert Clark Jr — Purchase on 2025-10-29, filed same dayofficer Hickox Michelle S — Purchase on 2025-10-28, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18Denny Michael B.directorPurchase3,000 @ $34.66$104K+85.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open6,500Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17Butler Ronald David IIofficerSale15,000 @ $34.95$524K−9.0% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open152,223Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-24Nickles Robert Clark JrdirectorPurchase700 @ $34.89$24K+0.7% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open98,324Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-11Edwards Murray HamiltondirectorPurchase1,000 @ $33.18$33K+2.3% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open44,634Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-05Nickles Robert Clark JrdirectorPurchase664 @ $31.96$21K+0.7% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open97,624Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-13Edwards Murray HamiltondirectorPurchase1,000 @ $29.32$29K+2.3% of holding+1.1%−2.2%43,634Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-12Haney GeoffdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $29.18$44K+4.7% of holding+3.5%−1.9%33,646Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12TROTTER JOHNNYdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $29.26$29K+0.1% of holding+3.5%−1.9%956,444Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09Hickox Michelle SofficerPurchase1,000 @ $29.50$30K+9.2% of holding+3.8%−2.7%11,861Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Hickox Michelle SofficerPurchase1,000 @ $29.50$30K+7.4% of holding+3.8%−2.7%14,600Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-06Davis Sally PopedirectorPurchase1,800 @ $29.52$53K+21.0% of holding+3.8%−2.5%10,371Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06Goodrich Brian D.officerPurchase1,665 @ $29.89$50K+40.0% of holding+3.8%−2.5%5,831Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-05TROTTER JOHNNYdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $30.02$120K+0.4% of holding+4.0%−2.6%955,444Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05Goodrich Brian D.officerPurchase1,565 @ $30.13$47K+61.9% of holding+4.0%−2.6%4,093Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Davis Sally PopedirectorPurchase1,600 @ $31.21$50K+23.0% of holding+1.0%−3.3%8,571Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20Haney GeoffdirectorPurchase10,200 @ $33.18$338K+46.5% of holding−6.1%−7.9%32,146Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-05Edwards Murray HamiltondirectorPurchase500 @ $34.18$17K+1.2% of holding−11.7%−12.1%42,634Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02Nickles Robert Clark JrdirectorPurchase629 @ $32.54$20K+0.7% of holding−4.5%−0.4%96,960Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-31Davis Sally PopedirectorPurchase1,700 @ $30.73$52K+32.3% of holding+0.9%−1.1%6,971Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-29Bailey David WilliamofficerPurchase1,000 @ $31.54$32K+5.8% of holding+2.5%+2.1%18,372Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-29Nickles Robert Clark JrdirectorPurchase653 @ $31.16$20K+0.7% of holding+2.5%+2.1%96,331Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-28Hickox Michelle SofficerPurchase2,000 @ $31.15$62K+8.9% of holding+0.8%−0.9%24,461Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

278 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Longhofer T. LukeofficerGift95043,148Form 4
2026-09-08Longhofer T. LukeofficerOption exercise1,5000Form 4
2026-09-08Longhofer T. LukeofficerOption exercise1,50043,298Form 4
2026-09-08Longhofer T. LukeofficerOption exercise8009,200Form 4
2026-09-08Longhofer T. LukeofficerOption exercise80044,098Form 4
2026-08-17Butler Ronald David IIofficerOption exercise5,000157,223Form 4
2026-08-17Butler Ronald David IIofficerOption exercise5,00015,000Form 4
2026-08-17Biebighauser Lon A.officerGift57011,778Form 4
2026-08-16McVey J. KyleofficerWithheld for tax12033,737Form 4
2026-08-16Bailey David WilliamofficerAward / grant6399,045Form 4
2026-08-16Bailey David WilliamofficerDisposition63928,845Form 4
2026-08-16Roewe Randall AllenofficerAward / grant5647,960Form 4
2026-08-16Roewe Randall AllenofficerDisposition56433,635Form 4
2026-08-16Butler Ronald David IIofficerAward / grant1,35417,991Form 4
2026-08-16Butler Ronald David IIofficerDisposition1,354167,223Form 4
2026-08-16Hickox Michelle SofficerAward / grant1,35413,697Form 4
2026-08-16Hickox Michelle SofficerDisposition1,3548,170Form 4
2026-08-16Ruzicka John James JrofficerAward / grant5267,243Form 4
2026-08-16Ruzicka John James JrofficerDisposition52610,580Form 4
2026-08-16Butler Ronald David IIofficerAward / grant1,35417,991Form 4
2026-08-16Butler Ronald David IIofficerDisposition1,354167,223Form 4
2026-08-16Bailey David WilliamofficerAward / grant6399,045Form 4
2026-08-16Bailey David WilliamofficerDisposition63928,845Form 4
2026-08-16Ruzicka John James JrofficerAward / grant5267,243Form 4
2026-08-16Ruzicka John James JrofficerDisposition52610,580Form 4
2026-08-16Roewe Randall AllenofficerAward / grant5647,960Form 4
2026-08-16Roewe Randall AllenofficerDisposition56433,635Form 4
2026-08-16Longhofer T. LukeofficerAward / grant71410,294Form 4
2026-08-16Longhofer T. LukeofficerDisposition71441,798Form 4
2026-08-16Hickox Michelle SofficerAward / grant1,35413,697Form 4
2026-08-16Hickox Michelle SofficerDisposition1,3548,170Form 4
2026-08-16Longhofer T. LukeofficerAward / grant71410,294Form 4
2026-08-16Longhofer T. LukeofficerDisposition71441,798Form 4
2026-08-16Bailey David WilliamofficerAward / grant6399,045Form 4
2026-08-16Bailey David WilliamofficerDisposition63928,845Form 4
2026-08-16Bailey David WilliamofficerDisposition63928,845Form 4
2026-08-16Ruzicka John James JrofficerDisposition52610,580Form 4
2026-08-16Bailey David WilliamofficerAward / grant6399,045Form 4
2026-08-16Roewe Randall AllenofficerAward / grant5647,960Form 4
2026-08-16Roewe Randall AllenofficerDisposition56433,635Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.