FFBCFirst Financial Bancorp.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.18 · now $32.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FFBC has typically landed between $28.71 and $36.95 — a range of −10.8% to +14.8% from the issuance price $32.18.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FFBC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$28.71worst · -10.8%$36.95best · +14.8%
  • now $32.18 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.17 (-0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.29–$34.05
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $28.71–$36.95
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−47.7%−47.7%+0.0%
2020-02-18−46.2%−46.2%+0.6%
2020-02-20−45.4%−46.6%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+77.4%−4.5%+77.4%
2009-03-06+77.1%−1.4%+83.2%
2009-03-11+74.4%+0.0%+74.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−0.6%
n=20
Feb
45%
+1.1%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.7%
n=20
Apr
45%
+0.1%
n=20
May
50%
−3.7%
n=20
Jun
60%
+0.4%
n=20
Jul
55%
+4.2%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.8%
n=20
Sep
45%
+1.4%
n=20
Oct
60%
+1.9%
n=20
Nov
70%
+4.5%
n=20
Dec
75%
+1.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$36$232026-09-03: 1 insider sale, $165K — Brown Archie M2026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $527K — OBRIEN THOMAS MURRAY2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $92K — Crawley Scott T2026-07-31: 1 insider sale, $135K — ANDERSON JAMES M2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $309K — Brown Archie M2026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $23K — MORRIS DAWN C2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $795K — DAVIS CLAUDE E2026-04-29: 1 insider sale, $128K — ANDERSON JAMES M2026-03-16: 1 insider sale, $93K — Shank James R2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $9K — Shank James R2026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $303K — Woods Karen B2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $604K — Dennen Richard S2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $54K — Harris Gregory A2025-12-16: 1 insider sale, $308K — Brown Archie M2025-09-30: 1 insider purchase, $16K — Arvia Anne L2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $196K — OBRIEN THOMAS MURRAY2025-08-14: 1 insider sale, $310K — Brown Archie M2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $506K2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $16K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $308K2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $969K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $93K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $128K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $818K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $309K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $135K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $619K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $165K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Brown Archie M — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed same daydirector OBRIEN THOMAS MURRAY — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Crawley Scott T — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed same dayofficer ANDERSON JAMES M — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed same daydirector Brown Archie M — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MORRIS DAWN C — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed same daydirector DAVIS CLAUDE E — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed same dayofficer ANDERSON JAMES M — Sale on 2026-04-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Shank James R — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed same dayofficer Shank James R — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Woods Karen B — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Dennen Richard S — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed same dayofficer Harris Gregory A — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Brown Archie M — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Arvia Anne L — Purchase on 2025-09-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector OBRIEN THOMAS MURRAY — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Brown Archie M — Sale on 2025-08-14, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Brown Archie MdirectorSale5,000 @ $32.93$165K−2.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open238,758Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-26OBRIEN THOMAS MURRAYdirectorSale16,088 @ $32.77$527K−34.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open30,392Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03Crawley Scott TofficerSale2,700 @ $34.16$92K−10.6% of holding−6.8%not yet — horizon still open22,711Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-31ANDERSON JAMES MofficerSale4,000 @ $33.73$135K−3.4% of holding−6.2%not yet — horizon still open114,537Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-08Brown Archie MdirectorSale10,000 @ $30.93$309K−3.9% of holding+8.4%not yet — horizon still open243,758Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-29MORRIS DAWN CdirectorSale740 @ $30.90$23K−7.2% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open9,548Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-01DAVIS CLAUDE EdirectorSale26,123 @ $30.45$795K−46.2% of holding−4.4%not yet — horizon still open30,410Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-29ANDERSON JAMES MofficerSale4,263 @ $30.00$128K−3.5% of holding−3.5%not yet — horizon still open118,537Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16Shank James RofficerSale3,420 @ $27.10$93K−23.5% of holding+3.2%+8.6%11,140Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27Shank James RofficerSale320 @ $28.24$9K−2.9% of holding+5.8%+6.2%10,821Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-13Woods Karen BofficerSale10,000 @ $30.28$303K−13.5% of holding−9.0%+0.8%63,954Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-04Dennen Richard SofficerSale20,000 @ $30.20$604K−24.4% of holding−6.7%+1.5%61,856Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-02Harris Gregory AofficerSale1,821 @ $29.43$54K−4.1% of holding−1.5%+8.9%42,431Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-16Brown Archie MdirectorSale11,500 @ $26.80$308K−4.8% of holding−2.0%+10.1%229,391Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-30Arvia Anne LdirectorPurchase618 @ $25.25$16K+6.9% of holding−9.8%+14.4%9,551Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22OBRIEN THOMAS MURRAYdirectorSale7,383 @ $26.54$196K−13.7% of holding−4.9%+3.6%46,480Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-14Brown Archie MdirectorSale12,500 @ $24.79$310K−4.9% of holding+0.8%+17.7%240,891Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-30MORRIS DAWN CdirectorSale787 @ $24.15$19K−9.0% of holding−0.2%−11.6%7,960Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-01MORRIS DAWN CdirectorSale880 @ $23.38$21K−13.2% of holding−3.8%−19.6%5,790Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-30Booth Cynthia OdirectorSale18,609 @ $22.91$426K−48.7% of holding−1.9%−20.8%19,602Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-19Shank James RofficerSale7,600 @ $24.92$189K−40.6% of holding−2.6%−10.1%11,141Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

125 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Brown Archie MdirectorAward / grant91,632330,390Form 4
2026-09-14ANDERSON JAMES MofficerAward / grant45,816156,392Form 4
2026-09-14Reckman Matthew DavidofficerAward / grant15,27247,470Form 4
2026-09-14Woods Karen BofficerAward / grant15,27290,234Form 4
2026-09-14Myers Malcolm AofficerAward / grant7,63660,856Form 4
2026-09-14Reckman Matthew DavidofficerAward / grant7,63655,106Form 4
2026-09-14Neeley Amanda NofficerAward / grant3,54469,731Form 4
2026-09-05ANDERSON JAMES MofficerWithheld for tax3,961110,576Form 4
2026-08-03ANDERSON JAMES MofficerOther acquisition5660Form 4
2026-06-30Rahe Maribeth SdirectorAward / grant46871,884Form 4
2026-06-30Arvia Anne LdirectorAward / grant46813,531Form 4
2026-06-30Porter Andre TdirectorAward / grant16017,487Form 4
2026-06-30OBRIEN THOMAS MURRAYdirectorAward / grant805,365Form 4
2026-05-26DAVIS CLAUDE EdirectorAward / grant2,32832,738Form 4
2026-05-26Arvia Anne LdirectorAward / grant2,32813,063Form 4
2026-05-26Berta VincedirectorAward / grant2,3285,285Form 4
2026-05-26kramer william jdirectorAward / grant2,32852,479Form 4
2026-05-26OBRIEN THOMAS MURRAYdirectorAward / grant2,3285,285Form 4
2026-05-26Porter Andre TdirectorAward / grant2,32817,327Form 4
2026-05-26Rahe Maribeth SdirectorAward / grant2,32871,416Form 4
2026-05-26Warzala Gary WdirectorAward / grant2,32814,850Form 4
2026-05-26MORRIS DAWN CdirectorAward / grant2,32810,288Form 4
2026-04-28ANDERSON JAMES MofficerGift275122,800Form 4
2026-04-10Brown Archie MdirectorGift12,000253,758Form 4
2026-03-31Rahe Maribeth SdirectorAward / grant56069,088Form 4
2026-03-31Arvia Anne LdirectorAward / grant56010,735Form 4
2026-03-07Brown Archie MdirectorWithheld for tax7,664265,519Form 4
2026-03-07ANDERSON JAMES MofficerWithheld for tax3,989122,938Form 4
2026-03-07Neeley Amanda NofficerWithheld for tax3,44566,188Form 4
2026-03-07Woods Karen BofficerWithheld for tax3,32675,102Form 4
2026-03-07Dennen Richard SofficerWithheld for tax2,89276,603Form 4
2026-03-07Harrod William RofficerWithheld for tax2,22566,978Form 4
2026-03-07Harris Gregory AofficerWithheld for tax1,95751,324Form 4
2026-03-07ANDERSON JAMES MofficerWithheld for tax1,464127,124Form 4
2026-03-07ANDERSON JAMES MofficerWithheld for tax1,275125,849Form 4
2026-03-07Neeley Amanda NofficerWithheld for tax1,12069,816Form 4
2026-03-07Neeley Amanda NofficerWithheld for tax1,08168,735Form 4
2026-03-07Crawley Scott TofficerWithheld for tax89026,137Form 4
2026-03-07Reckman Matthew DavidofficerWithheld for tax81532,649Form 4
2026-03-07Crawley Scott TofficerWithheld for tax72625,411Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.