Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.41 · now $5.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FF has typically landed between $4.44 and $6.65 — a range of −17.9% to +23.0% from the issuance price $5.41.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,982 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-07-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.41 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.45 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.06–$5.85
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.44–$6.65
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-06-16 | −43.7% | −43.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-22 | −36.3% | −36.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-12 | −35.4% | −35.8% | +4.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2015-09-30 | +54.4% | +0.0% | +54.4% |
| 2015-10-01 | +54.0% | +0.0% | +54.0% |
| 2015-09-29 | +51.8% | +0.0% | +51.8% |
4,982 overlapping windows · 2006-07-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~21 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Polet Roeland | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.28 | $43K | +40.0% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Polet Roeland | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $3.20 | $48K | +150.0% of holding | −0.7% | +16.6% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | Rowe Richard P. | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $3.95 | $59K | +300.0% of holding | −6.3% | −25.1% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | Bedell Donald C. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.00 | $40K | +10.0% of holding | −6.3% | −25.1% | 109,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
24 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | KRUSZEWSKI RONALD J | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Butcher Pamela R | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Manheim Paul | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Novelly Paul Anthony II | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Rowe Richard P. | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Greer GBruce | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | COLE DALE E | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Bedell Donald C. | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | SPARKS ROSE | officer | Award / grant | 5,012 | 24,295 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Gaither Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 5,012 | 6,173 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Manheim Paul | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 29,103 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | KRUSZEWSKI RONALD J | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Greer GBruce | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | COLE DALE E | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 11,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Bedell Donald C. | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Butcher Pamela R | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Novelly Paul Anthony II | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Rowe Richard P. | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-03 | Butcher Pamela R | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | EGGER TERRANCE C Z | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 14,895 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Greer GBruce | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | KRUSZEWSKI RONALD J | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Bedell Donald C. | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | COLE DALE E | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 6,350 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.