FERG · TickerCove

FERGFerguson plcIndustrials · Industrial - Distributionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $214.35 · now $214.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FERG has typically landed between $188.79 and $244.03 — a range of −11.9% to +13.8% from the issuance price $214.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,358 overlapping 1 month windows · 2005-01-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($214.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$214.35 · 0% of range

$214.35 low$266.68 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.8%

typical move · IQR 11.9%

−11.9%worst (p90)+13.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FERG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $214.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $214.35 (+0.0%)
typical $218.17 (+1.8%)
middle 50% $205.43–$230.92
90% range $188.79–$244.03

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,358 windows spanning 2005-01-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-06-25	−69.4%	−69.4%	+11.7%
2008-06-20	−67.4%	−67.4%	+0.0%
2008-07-08	−64.6%	−64.6%	+56.1%
3 best
2009-03-09	+145.5%	+0.0%	+182.9%
2009-01-29	+127.2%	−17.3%	+133.9%
2009-01-26	+93.5%	−31.6%	+93.5%

4,358 overlapping windows · 2005-01-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~22 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

57%

+0.2%

n=21

Feb

68%

+3.8%

n=22

Mar

29%

−4.1%

n=21

Apr

71%

+4.7%

n=21

May

45%

+1.6%

n=22

Jun

41%

−1.3%

n=22

Jul

43%

−1.3%

n=21

Aug

52%

+2.3%

n=21

Sep

48%

+0.6%

n=21

Oct

58%

+2.8%

n=19

Nov

58%

+2.2%

n=19

Dec

80%

+6.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-28	Schlicher Jake	officer	Sale	5,177 @ $230.92	$1.2M	−35.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	9,490	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-16	Winckler Richard	officer	Sale	83 @ $241.79	$20K	−5.0% of holding	+1.3%	+4.8%	1,592	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15	Graham Ian T.	officer	Sale	606 @ $239.33	$145K	−7.3% of holding	−0.3%	+1.4%	7,714	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-14	Paisley James A.	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $236.97	$711K	−57.6% of holding	+2.1%	+1.2%	2,211	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-14	Winckler Richard	officer	Sale	1,034 @ $232.70	$241K	−41.5% of holding	+2.1%	+1.2%	1,458	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-13	Murphy Kevin Michael	director	Sale	8,800 @ $234.13	$2.1M	−5.2% of holding	+5.1%	+4.1%	159,931	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-13	Graham Ian T.	officer	Sale	4,864 @ $233.22	$1.1M	−38.5% of holding	+5.1%	+4.1%	7,769	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-13	Schlicher Jake	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $233.52	$701K	−20.5% of holding	+5.1%	+4.1%	11,651	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-13	Brundage William	director	Sale	3,000 @ $233.32	$700K	−5.4% of holding	+5.1%	+4.1%	52,631	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-13	Thees William T. Jr	officer	Sale	2,308 @ $234.55	$541K	−7.2% of holding	+5.1%	+4.1%	29,694	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-13	Camposano Robert Anthony Jr.	officer	Sale	1,600 @ $233.23	$373K	−16.2% of holding	+5.1%	+4.1%	8,255	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-13	Stirrup Allison	officer	Sale	969 @ $234.23	$227K	−16.1% of holding	+5.1%	+4.1%	5,058	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06	Morrissey Victoria	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $177.00	$354K	−31.8% of holding	+2.8%	+24.2%	4,282	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-18	May Brian	director	Purchase	686 @ $185.14	$127K	+26.6% of holding	+1.4%	+20.7%	3,268	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-11	BECKWITT RICHARD	director	Purchase	2,500 @ $193.69	$484K	+205.1% of holding	−4.8%	+11.4%	3,719	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

207 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-09	METCALF JAMES S	director	Award / grant	17	6,978	Form 4
2026-07-09	METCALF JAMES S	director	Award / grant	7	6,960	Form 4
2026-07-09	Halligan Catherine Ann	director	Award / grant	7	3,959	Form 4
2026-07-09	Baker Kelly A	director	Award / grant	4	3,962	Form 4
2026-07-09	Paisley James A.	officer	Award / grant	3	4,458	Form 4
2026-07-08	Halligan Catherine Ann	director	Award / grant	4	3,951	Form 4
2026-07-08	Baker Kelly A	director	Award / grant	1	3,958	Form 4
2026-05-28	Stirrup Allison	officer	Award / grant	136	7,495	Form 4
2026-05-28	Camposano Robert Anthony Jr.	officer	Award / grant	68	10,952	Form 4
2026-05-28	Thees William T. Jr	officer	Award / grant	68	32,680	Form 4
2026-05-28	Schlicher Jake	officer	Award / grant	68	14,667	Form 4
2026-05-28	Murphy Kevin Michael	director	Award / grant	68	177,499	Form 4
2026-05-28	Brundage William	director	Award / grant	68	57,719	Form 4
2026-05-06	Drabble Geoff	director	Award / grant	742	7,473	Form 4
2026-05-06	Agrawal Rekha	director	Award / grant	751	2,318	Form 4
2026-05-06	Halligan Catherine Ann	director	Award / grant	751	3,948	Form 4
2026-05-06	Murray Alan J.	director	Award / grant	751	5,599	Form 4
2026-05-06	Baker Kelly A	director	Award / grant	751	3,957	Form 4
2026-05-06	Wood Suzanne H	director	Award / grant	751	3,569	Form 4
2026-05-06	May Brian	director	Award / grant	742	3,980	Form 4
2026-05-06	BECKWITT RICHARD	director	Award / grant	751	4,818	Form 4
2026-05-06	METCALF JAMES S	director	Award / grant	751	6,953	Form 4
2026-05-01	METCALF JAMES S	director	Award / grant	14	6,202	Form 4
2026-04-30	May Brian	director	Withheld for tax	98	3,238	Form 4
2026-04-30	Drabble Geoff	director	Withheld for tax	98	6,731	Form 4
2026-04-30	Halligan Catherine Ann	director	Award / grant	3	3,195	Form 4
2026-04-30	Baker Kelly A	director	Award / grant	1	3,204	Form 4
2026-04-30	Wood Suzanne H	director	Award / grant	2	2,818	Form 4
2026-04-30	METCALF JAMES S	director	Award / grant	2	6,187	Form 4
2026-04-30	May Brian	director	Award / grant	3	3,336	Form 4
2026-04-30	Murray Alan J.	director	Award / grant	2	4,848	Form 4
2026-04-30	Agrawal Rekha	director	Award / grant	2	1,567	Form 4
2026-04-30	BECKWITT RICHARD	director	Award / grant	2	4,067	Form 4
2026-04-30	Drabble Geoff	director	Award / grant	3	6,829	Form 4
2026-04-30	Halligan Catherine Ann	director	Award / grant	2	3,197	Form 4
2026-04-30	Baker Kelly A	director	Award / grant	2	3,206	Form 4
2026-04-29	METCALF JAMES S	director	Award / grant	5	6,185	Form 4
2026-04-29	Halligan Catherine Ann	director	Award / grant	5	3,191	Form 4
2026-04-29	Baker Kelly A	director	Award / grant	4	3,202	Form 4
2026-04-29	Paisley James A.	officer	Award / grant	2	4,455	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i