FENCFennec Pharmaceuticals Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.55 · now $10.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FENC has typically landed between $8.65 and $13.22 — a range of −18.0% to +25.3% from the issuance price $10.55.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,241 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-09-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FENC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$8.65worst · -18.0%$13.22best · +25.3%
  • now $10.55 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.64 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.72–$11.56
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.65–$13.22
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,241 windows spanning 2017-09-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-11-01−59.0%−59.0%+5.5%
2021-11-16−58.6%−59.9%+3.1%
2021-11-17−58.2%−60.1%+2.7%
3 best
2026-04-29+58.6%+0.0%+59.3%
2025-04-21+56.8%+0.0%+56.8%
2018-03-08+55.9%+0.0%+55.9%

2,241 overlapping windows · 2017-09-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
−0.8%
n=9
Feb
67%
+3.7%
n=9
Mar
33%
−6.1%
n=9
Apr
56%
−1.1%
n=9
May
44%
+7.3%
n=9
Jun
56%
+2.6%
n=9
Jul
56%
+1.1%
n=9
Aug
56%
+0.2%
n=9
Sep
56%
+1.8%
n=9
Oct
33%
−1.8%
n=9
Nov
67%
+4.1%
n=9
Dec
56%
+2.8%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$13$62026-09-15: 1 insider sale, $160K — Brughera Marco Maria2026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $121K — Raykov Rosty2026-08-31: 1 insider sale, $146K — Sayad Pierre Sargis2026-08-27: 1 insider sale, $884K — Andrade Robert2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $96K — Raykov Rosty2026-07-01: 1 insider sale, $100K — Raykov Rosty2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $94K — Raykov Rosty2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $59K — RALLIS CHRIS A2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $70K — Raykov Rosty2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $69K — Raykov Rosty2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $84K — Raykov Rosty2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $80K — Raykov Rosty2026-01-02: 1 insider sale, $78K — Raykov Rosty2025-12-24: 1 insider sale, $7.5M — Southpoint Capital Advisors LP2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $75K — Raykov Rosty2025-11-18: 1 insider sale, $170K — Southpoint Capital Advisors LP2025-11-17: 1 insider sale, $755K — Southpoint Capital Advisors LP2025-11-14: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Southpoint Capital Advisors LP2025-11-05: 1 insider sale, $81K — Raykov Rosty2025-10-10: 1 insider sale, $16K — RALLIS CHRIS A2025-10-09: 1 insider sale, $193K — Southpoint Capital Advisors LP2025-10-08: 1 insider sale, $186K — Southpoint Capital Advisors LP2025-10-07: 1 insider sale, $258K — Southpoint Capital Advisors LP2025-10-06: 1 insider sale, $98K — Raykov Rosty2025-09-04: 1 insider sale, $89K — Raykov Rosty2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $81K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $89K2025-10: 5 open-market sales, $750K2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $2.3M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $7.6M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $78K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $80K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $84K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $69K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $129K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $94K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $100K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $281K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Brughera Marco Maria — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed same dayofficer Sayad Pierre Sargis — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed same dayofficer Andrade Robert — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RALLIS CHRIS A — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed same daydirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed same daydirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Southpoint Capital Advisors LP — Sale on 2025-12-24, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed same daytenPercentOwner Southpoint Capital Advisors LP — Sale on 2025-11-18, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Southpoint Capital Advisors LP — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed same daytenPercentOwner Southpoint Capital Advisors LP — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RALLIS CHRIS A — Sale on 2025-10-10, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Southpoint Capital Advisors LP — Sale on 2025-10-09, filed same daytenPercentOwner Southpoint Capital Advisors LP — Sale on 2025-10-08, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Southpoint Capital Advisors LP — Sale on 2025-10-07, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector Raykov Rosty — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Brughera Marco MariadirectorSale15,545 @ $10.29$160K−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $12.11$121K−7.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open124,411Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-31Sayad Pierre SargisofficerSale12,000 @ $12.18$146K−55.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open9,519Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-27Andrade RobertofficerSale75,000 @ $11.78$884K−25.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open217,675Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $9.58$96K−7.1% of holding+24.9%not yet — horizon still open131,633Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-01Raykov RostydirectorSale9,599 @ $10.41$100K−6.5% of holding−7.6%not yet — horizon still open138,855Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01Raykov RostydirectorSale9,747 @ $9.62$94K−7.0% of holding+6.1%not yet — horizon still open130,079Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11RALLIS CHRIS AdirectorSale8,346 @ $7.04$59K−11.7% of holding+24.4%not yet — horizon still open63,077Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-01Raykov RostydirectorSale10,781 @ $6.47$70K−8.2% of holding+47.2%not yet — horizon still open121,451Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-01Raykov RostydirectorSale10,946 @ $6.31$69K−8.8% of holding−8.0%not yet — horizon still open113,856Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Raykov RostydirectorSale10,079 @ $8.36$84K−8.8% of holding−20.2%+37.9%103,996Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02Raykov RostydirectorSale10,349 @ $7.76$80K−9.5% of holding+6.2%+17.6%98,477Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-02Raykov RostydirectorSale10,312 @ $7.60$78K−10.5% of holding+2.1%+26.7%88,020Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-24Southpoint Capital Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale1,000,000 @ $7.50$7.5M−26.7% of holding+1.6%+35.9%2,744,741Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-05Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $7.54$75K−11.4% of holding−0.2%+8.1%77,526Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-18Southpoint Capital Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale19,341 @ $8.79$170K−0.5% of holding−15.9%+0.8%3,744,741Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17Southpoint Capital Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale85,918 @ $8.79$755K−2.2% of holding−14.7%−0.6%3,764,082Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-14Southpoint Capital Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale160,100 @ $8.00$1.3M−4.0% of holding−4.1%+14.4%3,850,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-05Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $8.10$81K−10.8% of holding−9.7%−25.5%82,318Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-10RALLIS CHRIS AdirectorSale1,775 @ $9.24$16K−3.0% of holding−14.7%−34.0%57,079Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-09Southpoint Capital Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale20,609 @ $9.35$193K−0.5% of holding−14.4%−39.2%4,010,100Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-08Southpoint Capital Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale19,605 @ $9.47$186K−0.5% of holding−12.8%−38.5%4,030,709Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-07Southpoint Capital Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale26,900 @ $9.59$258K−0.7% of holding−14.2%−34.7%4,050,314Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-06Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $9.78$98K−10.8% of holding−18.4%−34.6%82,501Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-04Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $8.92$89K−16.4% of holding+4.2%−20.3%51,086Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-05Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $8.09$81K−15.2% of holding+9.0%−12.7%55,878Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-07RALLIS CHRIS AdirectorSale1,119 @ $8.71$10K−2.0% of holding−4.7%−22.9%54,792Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-03Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $8.61$86K−14.2% of holding−6.4%−22.6%60,670Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-05Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $7.78$78K−13.3% of holding+5.2%−17.6%65,462Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Hackman Jeffrey S.directorPurchase13,965 @ $6.99$98K+1349.3% of holding+2.3%+1.8%15,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16Raykov RostydirectorSale16,667 @ $6.78$113K−19.2% of holding+12.3%+1.2%70,254Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16Hackman Jeffrey S.directorPurchase1,035 @ $6.75$7Kownership Δ n/a+12.3%+1.2%1,035Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-05Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $6.31$63K−15.7% of holding+16.5%+7.5%53,587Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-11RALLIS CHRIS AdirectorSale1,409 @ $4.95$7K−2.6% of holding+19.4%+43.6%53,784Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-04Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $5.25$53K−14.1% of holding+3.9%+51.8%61,156Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-05Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $6.79$68K−12.7% of holding−9.5%+24.0%68,725Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-14RALLIS CHRIS AdirectorSale1,186 @ $6.82$8K−2.2% of holding+6.3%+16.6%53,020Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Raykov RostydirectorSale10,000 @ $6.66$67K−11.6% of holding+6.0%+13.6%76,294Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06Raykov RostydirectorSale7,569 @ $6.08$46K−8.3% of holding+7.7%+42.9%83,863Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-06Raykov RostydirectorSale2,431 @ $6.08$15K−2.6% of holding+7.7%+42.9%91,432Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-05Raykov RostydirectorSale796 @ $6.04$5K−1.2% of holding+9.3%+45.2%66,432Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

146 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Brughera Marco MariadirectorOption exercise15,54515,545Form 4
2026-09-15Brughera Marco MariadirectorOption exercise15,545220,000Form 4
2026-08-31Raykov RostydirectorAward / grant2,778134,411Form 4
2026-08-31Hackman Jeffrey S.directorAward / grant1,15966,302Form 4
2026-08-31Evans Terry LofficerAward / grant16821,519Form 4
2026-08-31Sayad Pierre SargisofficerAward / grant16821,519Form 4
2026-08-31Cioffi Christiana MarieofficerAward / grant15624,644Form 4
2026-08-31Andrade RobertofficerAward / grant1,703241,306Form 4
2026-08-28Andrade RobertofficerOption exercise21,928239,603Form 4
2026-08-28Andrade RobertofficerOption exercise21,928779,330Form 4
2026-07-31Cioffi Christiana MarieofficerAward / grant15624,488Form 4
2026-07-31Andrade RobertofficerAward / grant1,703292,675Form 4
2026-07-31Sayad Pierre SargisofficerAward / grant16821,351Form 4
2026-07-31Hackman Jeffrey S.directorAward / grant1,15965,143Form 4
2026-07-31Raykov RostydirectorAward / grant2,778141,633Form 4
2026-07-31Evans Terry LofficerAward / grant16821,351Form 4
2026-07-01Raykov RostydirectorOption exercise15,597148,454Form 4
2026-07-01Raykov RostydirectorOption exercise15,5971,525,000Form 4
2026-07-01Raykov RostydirectorAward / grant2,778132,857Form 4
2026-06-30Hackman Jeffrey S.directorAward / grant1,15963,984Form 4
2026-06-30Andrade RobertofficerAward / grant1,703290,972Form 4
2026-06-30Cioffi Christiana MarieofficerAward / grant15624,332Form 4
2026-06-30Evans Terry LofficerAward / grant16821,183Form 4
2026-06-30Sayad Pierre SargisofficerAward / grant16821,183Form 4
2026-06-10Islam KhaliddirectorAward / grant25,000250,000Form 4
2026-06-10RALLIS CHRIS AdirectorAward / grant20,000200,000Form 4
2026-06-10Brughera Marco MariadirectorAward / grant20,000235,545Form 4
2026-06-10Cook Jodi AdirectorAward / grant20,000160,000Form 4
2026-06-01Raykov RostydirectorOption exercise15,5971,556,195Form 4
2026-06-01Raykov RostydirectorOption exercise15,597139,826Form 4
2026-05-31Cioffi Christiana MarieofficerAward / grant15624,176Form 4
2026-05-31Sayad Pierre SargisofficerAward / grant16821,015Form 4
2026-05-31Hackman Jeffrey S.directorAward / grant1,15962,825Form 4
2026-05-31Raykov RostydirectorAward / grant2,778124,229Form 4
2026-05-31Andrade RobertofficerAward / grant1,703289,269Form 4
2026-05-31Evans Terry LofficerAward / grant16821,015Form 4
2026-05-11RALLIS CHRIS AdirectorOption exercise14,344186,189Form 4
2026-05-11RALLIS CHRIS AdirectorOption exercise14,34471,423Form 4
2026-05-01Raykov RostydirectorOption exercise15,5981,571,792Form 4
2026-05-01Raykov RostydirectorOption exercise15,598132,232Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.