Issued 2026-09-16 at $45.38 · now $45.38 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FE has typically landed between $42.08 and $49.41 — a range of −7.3% to +8.9% from the issuance price $45.38.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($45.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $45.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $45.38 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $45.83 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $44.2–$47.45
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $42.08–$49.41
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −35.6% | −35.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −34.0% | −34.0% | +0.6% |
| 2020-02-20 | −33.8% | −33.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +33.2% | +0.0% | +39.2% |
| 2020-03-16 | +28.1% | −3.2% | +32.5% |
| 2020-03-20 | +26.0% | −3.2% | +34.8% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-90.44
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$41.43
- Analyst target · range $50.00–$56.00$52.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$45.38
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | ONEIL JAMES F | director | Sale | 7,945 @ $50.60 | $402K | −81.0% of holding | +0.8% | −20.4% | 1,869 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | K. Jon Taylor | officer | Sale | 26,800 @ $50.94 | $1.4M | −18.3% of holding | +1.8% | −21.0% | 119,552 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Lisowski Jason | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $50.84 | $153K | −29.5% of holding | +2.0% | −22.2% | 7,176 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Lisowski Jason | officer | Sale | 1,373 @ $50.84 | $70K | −100.0% of holding | +2.0% | −22.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Lisowski Jason | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $41.97 | $504K | −98.5% of holding | −7.9% | +0.6% | 183 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | K. Jon Taylor | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $43.03 | $516K | −10.7% of holding | −12.1% | −14.0% | 99,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
156 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | SOMERHALDER JOHN W II | director | Award / grant | 898 | 161,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Hicks Lisa Winston | director | Award / grant | 898 | 19,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Turner Leslie M | director | Award / grant | 898 | 25,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Croom Jana T | director | Award / grant | 898 | 15,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | ONEIL JAMES F | director | Award / grant | 898 | 47,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | KALETA PAUL J | director | Award / grant | 898 | 19,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | DEMETRIOU STEVEN J. | director | Award / grant | 898 | 30,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | TIERNEY BRIAN X | director | Withheld for tax | 16,991 | 523,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | SOMERHALDER JOHN W II | director | Award / grant | 837 | 160,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Williams Melvin D. | director | Award / grant | 837 | 18,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hicks Lisa Winston | director | Award / grant | 837 | 18,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | KALETA PAUL J | director | Award / grant | 837 | 18,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | ONEIL JAMES F | director | Award / grant | 837 | 45,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Croom Jana T | director | Award / grant | 837 | 13,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Turner Leslie M | director | Award / grant | 837 | 24,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | DEMETRIOU STEVEN J. | director | Award / grant | 837 | 29,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Lisowski Jason | officer | Option exercise | 7,402 | 14,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Lisowski Jason | officer | Option exercise | 7,402 | 14,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | TIERNEY BRIAN X | director | Disposition | 76,303 | 538,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | TIERNEY BRIAN X | director | Withheld for tax | 68,362 | 614,438 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | K. Jon Taylor | officer | Disposition | 22,344 | 146,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | K. Jon Taylor | officer | Disposition | 22,241 | 168,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Thomas Toby L. | officer | Disposition | 13,658 | 38,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Thomas Toby L. | officer | Award / grant | 13,658 | 13,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Park Hyun | officer | Disposition | 12,885 | 112,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Park Hyun | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,494 | 125,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | K. Jon Taylor | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,480 | 196,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Smith Allan Wade | officer | Disposition | 11,358 | 133,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Smith Allan Wade | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,194 | 145,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Thomas Toby L. | officer | Disposition | 8,089 | 52,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | K. Jon Taylor | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,711 | 190,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Lisowski Jason | officer | Disposition | 2,438 | 10,176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Lisowski Jason | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,183 | 12,614 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Thomas Toby L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,540 | 60,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Thomas Toby L. | officer | Award / grant | 11,681 | 37,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | TIERNEY BRIAN X | director | Award / grant | 80,342 | 453,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | TIERNEY BRIAN X | director | Option exercise | 229,581 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Park Hyun | officer | Option exercise | 38,656 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Smith Allan Wade | officer | Award / grant | 15,321 | 120,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Lisowski Jason | officer | Award / grant | 3,034 | 7,395 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Newhouse | House | purchase | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-07-08 | 2024-06-24 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-07-08 | 2024-06-20 | $50–100K |
| Earl Blumenauer | House | purchase | 2022-03-07 | 2022-02-11 | $1–15K |
| Lois Frankel | House | sale | 2020-08-24 | 2020-07-28 | $1–15K |
| Lois Frankel | House | sale | 2020-08-24 | 2020-07-22 | $1–15K |
| Earl Blumenauer | House | purchase | 2020-08-10 | 2020-07-22 | $1–15K |
| Lois Frankel | House | sale | 2020-07-24 | 2020-07-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2020-05-13 | 2020-04-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2020-04-20 | 2020-03-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2020-03-09 | 2020-02-11 | $1–15K |
| Lois Frankel | House | purchase | 2019-04-25 | 2019-03-28 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.