Issued 2026-09-16 at $276.41 · now $276.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FDS has typically landed between $241.30 and $308.84 — a range of −12.7% to +11.7% from the issuance price $276.41.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($276.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FDS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $276.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $276.41 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $277.28 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $263.82–$290.74
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $241.3–$308.84
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −36.5% | −36.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-12 | −34.8% | −34.8% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-15 | −34.4% | −34.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-03 | +34.5% | −1.3% | +38.0% |
| 2009-03-02 | +33.6% | −4.5% | +33.6% |
| 2020-03-23 | +33.2% | +0.0% | +38.1% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$9.0B
market cap
$15.19
EPS (TTM)
16.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-17
next earnings
Revenue$2.3B
'20'25
Net income$597M
'20'25
Free cash flow$617M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr25.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr27.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.71
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$420.04
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$248.84
- Analyst target · range $210.00–$340.00$253.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$276.41
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.7%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Mar
63%
+3.0%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.8%
n=19
May
68%
+2.1%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.9%
n=19
Jul
79%
+3.7%
n=19
Aug
53%
+1.6%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.0%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.5%
n=18
Nov
89%
+4.4%
n=18
Dec
44%
−1.3%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Frank Malcolm | director | Sale | 1,527 @ $296.17 | $452K | −63.5% of holding | −34.3% | −23.7% | 879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Frank Malcolm | director | Sale | 1,045 @ $295.02 | $308K | −30.3% of holding | −34.3% | −23.7% | 2,406 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | SIEGEL LAURIE | director | Sale | 1,984 @ $296.12 | $588K | −55.0% of holding | −31.6% | −18.9% | 1,625 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | SIEGEL LAURIE | director | Sale | 588 @ $296.67 | $174K | −36.2% of holding | −31.6% | −18.9% | 1,037 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Skoko Goran | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $252.93 | $126K | +5.8% of holding | +11.6% | −23.7% | 9,192 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Shan Helen L. | director | Purchase | 370 @ $275.48 | $102K | +4.2% of holding | −4.3% | −19.4% | 9,284 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Eilam Barak | director | Sale | 1 @ $283.21 | $283 | −0.3% of holding | −8.4% | −17.7% | 285 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | McLoughlin Christopher | officer | Purchase | 335 @ $296.18 | $99K | +10.8% of holding | −0.2% | −31.8% | 3,443 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | McLoughlin Christopher | officer | Purchase | 3 @ $297.66 | $893 | +0.1% of holding | −0.2% | −31.8% | 3,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-14 | MCGONIGLE JAMES J | director | Sale | 1,425 @ $451.98 | $644K | −24.2% of holding | −18.6% | −44.0% | 4,461 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-14 | MCGONIGLE JAMES J | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $451.05 | $541K | −16.9% of holding | −18.6% | −44.0% | 5,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-14 | MCGONIGLE JAMES J | director | Sale | 300 @ $449.93 | $135K | −4.1% of holding | −18.6% | −44.0% | 7,086 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Moskoff Gregory T | officer | Sale | 1,024 @ $443.80 | $454K | −87.8% of holding | −15.0% | −45.3% | 142 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Moskoff Gregory T | officer | Sale | 591 @ $442.54 | $262K | −33.6% of holding | −15.0% | −45.3% | 1,166 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Moskoff Gregory T | officer | Sale | 491 @ $440.56 | $216K | −19.3% of holding | −15.0% | −45.3% | 2,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Moskoff Gregory T | officer | Sale | 296 @ $441.36 | $131K | −14.4% of holding | −15.0% | −45.3% | 1,757 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Moskoff Gregory T | officer | Sale | 98 @ $444.48 | $44K | −69.0% of holding | −15.0% | −45.3% | 44 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Ellis Christopher R | officer | Sale | 4,404 @ $447.44 | $2.0M | −15.5% of holding | −13.9% | −45.8% | 24,059 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Ellis Christopher R | officer | Sale | 2,102 @ $446.53 | $939K | −6.9% of holding | −13.9% | −45.8% | 28,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Ellis Christopher R | officer | Sale | 800 @ $445.36 | $356K | −2.6% of holding | −13.9% | −45.8% | 30,565 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Ellis Christopher R | officer | Sale | 200 @ $441.99 | $88K | −0.6% of holding | −13.9% | −45.8% | 31,365 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Ellis Christopher R | officer | Sale | 100 @ $448.20 | $45K | −0.4% of holding | −13.9% | −45.8% | 23,952 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Snow Frederick Philip | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $445.12 | $1.3M | −15.3% of holding | −12.9% | −46.7% | 16,616 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Snow Frederick Philip | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $454.58 | $1.4M | −15.3% of holding | −6.9% | −54.3% | 16,616 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-01 | Snow Frederick Philip | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $431.09 | $1.3M | −15.3% of holding | +0.3% | −59.5% | 16,616 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-01 | Snow Frederick Philip | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $454.86 | $1.4M | −15.3% of holding | −5.5% | −56.8% | 16,616 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Moskoff Gregory T | officer | Sale | 363 @ $433.73 | $158K | −89.2% of holding | +5.2% | −49.1% | 44 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Stepp Katherine M | officer | Sale | 864 @ $424.25 | $367K | −37.0% of holding | +4.5% | −50.3% | 1,473 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Stepp Katherine M | officer | Sale | 309 @ $426.49 | $132K | −26.5% of holding | +4.5% | −50.3% | 857 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Stepp Katherine M | officer | Sale | 307 @ $424.81 | $130K | −20.8% of holding | +4.5% | −50.3% | 1,166 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Stepp Katherine M | officer | Sale | 246 @ $426.48 | $105K | −28.7% of holding | +4.5% | −50.3% | 612 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Snow Frederick Philip | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $464.79 | $1.4M | −15.3% of holding | +3.4% | −29.4% | 16,616 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-03 | Snow Frederick Philip | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $469.14 | $1.4M | −15.3% of holding | −2.5% | −22.8% | 16,616 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-02 | Snow Frederick Philip | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $484.33 | $1.5M | −15.3% of holding | −5.0% | −13.0% | 16,616 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
132 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Warren Joshua | officer | Award / grant | 8,567 | 8,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Warren Joshua | officer | Award / grant | 2,272 | 2,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Moskoff Gregory T | officer | Withheld for tax | 3 | 183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Moskoff Gregory T | officer | Withheld for tax | 4 | 186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Eilam Barak | director | Award / grant | 1,074 | 1,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Wiesel Shlomo Elisha | director | Award / grant | 571 | 1,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Eilam Barak | director | Award / grant | 439 | 724 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Tejada Maria Teresa | director | Award / grant | 1,074 | 1,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Tejada Maria Teresa | director | Award / grant | 439 | 1,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Shavel Lee | director | Award / grant | 571 | 1,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Choy Siew Kai | director | Award / grant | 1,074 | 1,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | ABRAMS ROBIN ANN | director | Award / grant | 1,477 | 1,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Shavel Lee | director | Award / grant | 1,396 | 1,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | ABRAMS ROBIN ANN | director | Award / grant | 604 | 15,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | HYLTON LAURIE G | director | Award / grant | 439 | 848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | HYLTON LAURIE G | director | Award / grant | 1,074 | 1,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Wiesel Shlomo Elisha | director | Award / grant | 1,396 | 1,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | SIEGEL LAURIE | director | Award / grant | 626 | 1,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Frank Malcolm | director | Award / grant | 713 | 1,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Frank Malcolm | director | Award / grant | 1,743 | 1,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | SIEGEL LAURIE | director | Award / grant | 1,531 | 1,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Choy Siew Kai | director | Award / grant | 439 | 1,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Frank Malcolm | director | Option exercise | 2,572 | 3,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Frank Malcolm | director | Option exercise | 2,572 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | SIEGEL LAURIE | director | Option exercise | 2,572 | 3,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | SIEGEL LAURIE | director | Option exercise | 2,572 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | ABRAMS ROBIN ANN | director | Option exercise | 2,572 | 14,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | ABRAMS ROBIN ANN | director | Option exercise | 2,572 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-02 | McLoughlin Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 731 | 2,715 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Ellis Christopher R | officer | Award / grant | 3,982 | 3,982 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Stepp Katherine M | officer | Award / grant | 6,969 | 6,969 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Skoko Goran | officer | Award / grant | 9,955 | 9,955 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Skoko Goran | officer | Award / grant | 3,915 | 8,692 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Shan Helen L. | director | Award / grant | 14,933 | 14,933 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Costigan John | officer | Award / grant | 3,915 | 4,479 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Costigan John | officer | Award / grant | 6,969 | 6,969 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Harding Catrina | officer | Award / grant | 5,973 | 5,973 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Robie Robert J. | officer | Award / grant | 8,296 | 8,296 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Moskoff Gregory T | officer | Award / grant | 2,157 | 2,157 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | McLoughlin Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 5,310 | 5,310 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | sale | 2026-04-04 | 2026-03-25 | $1–15K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | sale | 2026-04-04 | 2026-03-31 | $1–15K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | sale | 2026-04-04 | 2026-03-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.