FDMT · TickerCove

FDMT4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.76 · now $13.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FDMT has typically landed between $9.56 and $20.30 — a range of −30.6% to +47.6% from the issuance price $13.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,424 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$13.76 · 70% of range

$6.6 low$16.76 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−4.5%

typical move · IQR 27.8%

−30.6%worst (p90)+47.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FDMT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $13.76 (+0.0%)
typical $13.14 (-4.5%)
middle 50% $11.22–$15.05
90% range $9.56–$20.3

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,424 windows spanning 2020-12-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2024-09-18	−49.8%	−49.8%	+0.0%
2024-09-17	−46.4%	−46.4%	+4.1%
2024-07-16	−46.1%	−46.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2022-10-19	+223.2%	−1.2%	+223.2%
2022-10-24	+219.7%	+0.0%	+219.7%
2022-10-25	+210.1%	+0.0%	+213.3%

1,424 overlapping windows · 2020-12-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−4.5%

n=6

Feb

33%

+4.9%

n=6

Mar

50%

−2.6%

n=6

Apr

33%

−8.8%

n=6

May

67%

−7.7%

n=6

Jun

33%

+0.9%

n=6

Jul

67%

+3.6%

n=6

Aug

50%

+9.3%

n=6

Sep

33%

−3.4%

n=6

Oct

40%

−2.5%

n=5

Nov

60%

+38.5%

n=5

Dec

20%

−3.6%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Kirn David	director	Sale	58,333 @ $13.90	$811K	−7.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	767,486	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	Bizily Scott	officer	Sale	584 @ $14.00	$8K	−6.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	8,617	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19	Kirn David	director	Sale	43,149 @ $15.36	$663K	−4.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	851,746	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19	Kirn David	director	Sale	25,927 @ $16.42	$426K	−3.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	825,819	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Bizily Scott	officer	Sale	1,635 @ $12.20	$20K	−15.9% of holding	−3.0%	not yet — horizon still open	8,617	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-13	Bizily Scott	officer	Sale	1,635 @ $12.00	$20K	−15.9% of holding	+20.3%	not yet — horizon still open	8,617	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Kirn David	director	Sale	26,842 @ $10.23	$275K	−3.1% of holding	+46.4%	not yet — horizon still open	844,895	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03	Kirn David	director	Sale	12,415 @ $10.05	$125K	−1.4% of holding	+41.7%	not yet — horizon still open	871,737	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-10	Kirn David	director	Sale	15,283 @ $12.01	$184K	−1.7% of holding	−11.9%	not yet — horizon still open	884,594	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-10	Kirn David	director	Sale	442 @ $12.84	$6K	−0.0% of holding	−11.9%	not yet — horizon still open	884,152	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-09	Kirn David	director	Sale	42,608 @ $12.87	$548K	−4.5% of holding	−19.5%	not yet — horizon still open	899,877	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-30	Bizily Scott	officer	Sale	6,566 @ $14.00	$92K	−43.2% of holding	−23.6%	not yet — horizon still open	8,617	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-23	Bizily Scott	officer	Sale	9,810 @ $12.00	$118K	−53.2% of holding	−11.1%	not yet — horizon still open	8,617	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22	Kirn David	director	Sale	114,746 @ $10.47	$1.2M	−10.9% of holding	+4.8%	not yet — horizon still open	942,485	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Kirn David	director	Sale	1,922 @ $10.02	$19K	−0.2% of holding	+32.1%	not yet — horizon still open	1,057,231	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Sale	310 @ $8.61	$3K	−0.7% of holding	+4.8%	not yet — horizon still open	46,914	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Sale	80 @ $8.61	$689	−0.2% of holding	+4.8%	not yet — horizon still open	47,055	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Sale	310 @ $8.68	$3K	−0.7% of holding	−8.0%	+25.6%	46,218	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Sale	79 @ $8.68	$686	−0.2% of holding	−8.0%	+25.6%	46,359	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-16	Bizily Scott	officer	Sale	1,635 @ $10.90	$18K	−31.3% of holding	−36.6%	−27.1%	3,594	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-17	Bizily Scott	officer	Sale	1,635 @ $10.59	$17K	−31.3% of holding	−16.8%	−34.6%	3,594	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-24	Bizily Scott	officer	Sale	2,678 @ $12.00	$32K	−42.7% of holding	−2.7%	−22.6%	3,594	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-16	Bizily Scott	officer	Sale	1,635 @ $10.17	$17K	−24.0% of holding	+5.2%	−8.1%	5,188	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-09	Bizily Scott	officer	Sale	2,408 @ $10.00	$24K	−31.7% of holding	+9.9%	+2.2%	5,188	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-09-23	Bizily Scott	officer	Sale	2,407 @ $8.00	$19K	−24.1% of holding	+37.5%	+30.2%	7,596	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

65 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	584	9,201	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	584	2,959	Form 4
2026-08-19	Kirn David	director	Option exercise	50,000	894,895	Form 4
2026-08-19	Kirn David	director	Option exercise	50,000	217,500	Form 4
2026-08-17	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	1,635	10,252	Form 4
2026-08-17	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	1,635	59,701	Form 4
2026-08-13	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	1,635	10,252	Form 4
2026-08-13	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	1,635	61,336	Form 4
2026-06-30	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	5,752	15,183	Form 4
2026-06-30	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	814	9,431	Form 4
2026-06-30	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	814	62,971	Form 4
2026-06-30	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	5,752	3,543	Form 4
2026-06-23	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	9,810	18,427	Form 4
2026-06-23	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	9,810	63,785	Form 4
2026-06-17	MILLIGAN JOHN F	director	Award / grant	75,000	75,000	Form 4
2026-06-17	Miller-Rich Nancy	director	Award / grant	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-06-17	Chacko Jacob	director	Award / grant	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-06-17	SBLENDORIO GLENN	director	Award / grant	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-06-17	THEUER CHARLES	director	Award / grant	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-06-17	Tomasello Shawn	director	Award / grant	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-06-17	GRAY SUSANNAH	director	Award / grant	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-03-25	Kirn David	director	Award / grant	750,000	750,000	Form 4
2026-03-25	Simms Christopher Paul	officer	Award / grant	219,000	219,000	Form 4
2026-03-25	Bizily Scott	officer	Award / grant	217,000	217,000	Form 4
2026-03-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Option exercise	865	12,119	Form 4
2026-03-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Option exercise	221	3,087	Form 4
2026-03-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Option exercise	865	47,224	Form 4
2026-03-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Option exercise	221	47,135	Form 4
2026-03-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Option exercise	865	47,224	Form 4
2026-03-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Option exercise	221	47,135	Form 4
2026-01-05	SBLENDORIO GLENN	director	Award / grant	45,000	45,000	Form 4
2025-12-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Option exercise	866	12,984	Form 4
2025-12-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Option exercise	220	3,308	Form 4
2025-12-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Option exercise	866	46,528	Form 4
2025-12-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Option exercise	220	46,438	Form 4
2025-12-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Option exercise	866	46,528	Form 4
2025-12-20	Gupta Ashoo	officer	Option exercise	220	46,438	Form 4
2025-12-16	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	1,635	5,229	Form 4
2025-12-16	Bizily Scott	officer	Option exercise	1,635	73,595	Form 4
2025-12-12	THEUER CHARLES	director	Option exercise	9,333	41,684	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i