FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.Basic Materials · Copperas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $72.31 · now $72.31 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, FCX has typically landed between $59.43 and $87.55 — a range of −17.8% to +21.1% from the issuance price $72.31.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($72.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FCX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $72.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$59.43worst · -17.8%$87.55best · +21.1%
  • now $72.31 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $73.29 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $66.89–$79.69
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $59.43–$87.55
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-25−63.2%−63.2%+0.0%
2008-09-26−62.3%−62.3%+0.0%
2008-09-23−60.7%−60.7%+0.0%
3 best
2016-02-02+109.2%+0.0%+109.2%
2016-02-11+104.1%+0.0%+104.1%
2016-02-03+100.7%+0.0%+100.7%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$90.0B
market cap
$2.04
EPS (TTM)
30.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$25.7B
'20'25
Net income$2.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr8.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.61
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $72.31$-5.75$86.35
  • DCF (intrinsic)$0.5987
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$48.69
  • Analyst target · range $58.50–$80.00$73.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$72.31

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−1.1%
n=18
Feb
58%
+8.1%
n=19
Mar
47%
+1.7%
n=19
Apr
47%
+4.1%
n=19
May
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.8%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.4%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.8%
n=19
Sep
42%
−3.6%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.6%
n=18
Nov
56%
+4.7%
n=18
Dec
50%
+2.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$80$352026-08-27: 1 insider sale, $300K — KENNARD LYDIA H2026-08-25: 1 insider sale, $6.3M — Currault Douglas N. II2026-08-05: 2 insider sales, $1.3M — Higgins Stephen T., Mikes Ellie L.2026-07-30: 1 insider sale, $476K — Higgins Stephen T.2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Higgins Stephen T.2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $682K — Mikes Ellie L.2026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $3.0M — Robertson Maree E.2026-02-11: 3 insider sales, $14.7M — ADKERSON RICHARD C, Currault Douglas N. II …2026-02-10: 1 insider sale, $15.6M — ADKERSON RICHARD C2025-12-11: 2 insider sales, $1.8M — Higgins Stephen T., Mikes Ellie L.2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $1.8M2026-02: 7 open-market sales, $35.8M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $476K2026-08: 4 open-market sales, $7.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector KENNARD LYDIA H — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Currault Douglas N. II — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Higgins Stephen T. — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed same dayofficer Mikes Ellie L. — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed same dayofficer Higgins Stephen T. — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Higgins Stephen T. — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Mikes Ellie L. — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed same dayofficer Robertson Maree E. — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradedirector ADKERSON RICHARD C — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed same dayofficer Currault Douglas N. II — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed same daydirector ADKERSON RICHARD C — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed same daydirector ADKERSON RICHARD C — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Higgins Stephen T. — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mikes Ellie L. — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-27KENNARD LYDIA HdirectorSale3,798 @ $79.11$300K−3.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open122,702Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-25Currault Douglas N. IIofficerSale80,000 @ $78.56$6.3M−27.5% of holding−10.0%not yet — horizon still open211,016Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05Higgins Stephen T.officerSale14,277 @ $69.50$992K−20.7% of holding+4.1%not yet — horizon still open54,618Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05Mikes Ellie L.officerSale4,773 @ $70.00$334K−11.7% of holding+4.1%not yet — horizon still open36,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-30Higgins Stephen T.officerSale7,550 @ $63.00$476K−9.9% of holding+16.8%not yet — horizon still open68,895Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20Higgins Stephen T.officerSale29,654 @ $63.00$1.9M−27.9% of holding−9.9%+8.0%76,445Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-18Mikes Ellie L.officerSale11,000 @ $62.03$682K−21.2% of holding−10.4%−1.7%40,773Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-13Robertson Maree E.officerSale48,500 @ $61.55$3.0M−37.8% of holding−5.9%−4.6%79,894Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-11ADKERSON RICHARD CdirectorSale132,824 @ $64.57$8.6M−3.8% of holding−9.6%−10.5%3,376,295Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-11Currault Douglas N. IIofficerSale75,000 @ $64.52$4.8M−25.5% of holding−9.6%−10.5%219,181Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-11ADKERSON RICHARD CdirectorSale20,136 @ $65.21$1.3M−0.6% of holding−9.6%−10.5%3,356,159Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-10ADKERSON RICHARD CdirectorSale248,031 @ $62.80$15.6M−6.6% of holding−2.6%−2.3%3,509,119Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11Higgins Stephen T.officerSale28,423 @ $47.99$1.4M−21.3% of holding+22.4%+36.3%105,294Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11Mikes Ellie L.officerSale9,572 @ $47.66$456K−19.8% of holding+22.4%+36.3%38,761Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02Mikes Ellie L.officerSale8,584 @ $40.02$344K−15.1% of holding+9.0%−7.4%48,333Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-11-11Robertson Maree E.officerSale13,000 @ $44.91$584K−16.0% of holding−5.7%−12.9%68,198Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-05-13Higgins Stephen T.officerSale80,000 @ $52.03$4.2M−43.4% of holding−9.4%−28.9%104,377Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-06ADKERSON RICHARD CdirectorSale54,771 @ $50.78$2.8M−1.5% of holding−4.5%−19.7%3,652,478Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-05-03Higgins Stephen T.officerSale42,767 @ $50.35$2.2M−29.1% of holding−4.8%−21.5%104,377Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-01Higgins Stephen T.officerSale43,900 @ $51.08$2.2M−29.6% of holding+0.2%−24.0%104,377Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-05-01Mikes Ellie L.officerSale3,000 @ $50.98$153K−6.4% of holding+0.2%−24.0%43,572Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-05-01Mikes Ellie L.officerSale1,333 @ $50.95$68K−2.8% of holding+0.2%−24.0%46,572Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-04-30ADKERSON RICHARD CdirectorSale169,229 @ $50.56$8.6M−4.4% of holding+0.6%−22.8%3,707,249Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-04-29Currault Douglas N. IIofficerSale55,000 @ $51.99$2.9M−25.1% of holding−2.5%−24.9%164,067Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

132 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Currault Douglas N. IIofficerOption exercise65,000276,016Form 4
2026-08-25Currault Douglas N. IIofficerOption exercise15,000291,016Form 4
2026-08-25Currault Douglas N. IIofficerOption exercise15,0000Form 4
2026-08-25Currault Douglas N. IIofficerOption exercise65,0000Form 4
2026-07-01GRANT HUGHdirectorAward / grant53649,850Form 4
2026-07-01STEPHENS JOHN JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant32771,504Form 4
2026-06-01GRANT HUGHdirectorAward / grant2,80049,314Form 4
2026-06-01Lance Ryan MichaeldirectorAward / grant2,80023,200Form 4
2026-06-01STEPHENS JOHN JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant2,80071,177Form 4
2026-06-01Donadio Marcela EdirectorAward / grant2,80024,500Form 4
2026-06-01ABNEY DAVID PdirectorAward / grant2,80025,200Form 4
2026-06-01MCCOY DUSTAN EdirectorAward / grant2,800155,100Form 4
2026-06-01TOWNSEND FRANCES FdirectorAward / grant2,800127,570Form 4
2026-06-01Lewis Sara GrootwassinkdirectorAward / grant2,80034,000Form 4
2026-06-01KENNARD LYDIA HdirectorAward / grant2,800126,500Form 4
2026-04-01GRANT HUGHdirectorAward / grant57446,514Form 4
2026-04-01STEPHENS JOHN JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant35068,377Form 4
2026-03-07ADKERSON RICHARD CdirectorGift27,6931,638,005Form 4
2026-02-15QUIRK KATHLEEN LdirectorWithheld for tax28,2442,251,243Form 4
2026-02-15ADKERSON RICHARD CdirectorWithheld for tax25,4693,330,690Form 4
2026-02-15Robertson Maree E.officerWithheld for tax10,35469,540Form 4
2026-02-15Higgins Stephen T.officerWithheld for tax9,021127,614Form 4
2026-02-15Currault Douglas N. IIofficerWithheld for tax8,165211,016Form 4
2026-02-15Mikes Ellie L.officerWithheld for tax4,98851,773Form 4
2026-02-11Currault Douglas N. IIofficerOption exercise50,000294,181Form 4
2026-02-11Currault Douglas N. IIofficerOption exercise25,000244,181Form 4
2026-02-11Currault Douglas N. IIofficerOption exercise25,0000Form 4
2026-02-11Currault Douglas N. IIofficerOption exercise50,0000Form 4
2026-02-10Robertson Maree E.officerWithheld for tax8,700128,394Form 4
2026-02-10Robertson Maree E.officerAward / grant17,000110,219Form 4
2026-02-09ADKERSON RICHARD CdirectorWithheld for tax95,1653,757,150Form 4
2026-02-09QUIRK KATHLEEN LdirectorWithheld for tax52,9792,279,487Form 4
2026-02-09Higgins Stephen T.officerWithheld for tax7,284136,635Form 4
2026-02-09Currault Douglas N. IIofficerWithheld for tax6,253219,181Form 4
2026-02-09Currault Douglas N. IIofficerAward / grant20,625225,434Form 4
2026-02-09Currault Douglas N. IIofficerAward / grant14,000204,809Form 4
2026-02-09ADKERSON RICHARD CdirectorAward / grant248,1253,852,315Form 4
2026-02-09QUIRK KATHLEEN LdirectorAward / grant47,0002,199,966Form 4
2026-02-09QUIRK KATHLEEN LdirectorAward / grant132,5002,332,466Form 4
2026-02-09ADKERSON RICHARD CdirectorAward / grant27,5003,604,190Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousepurchase2026-05-192026-04-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-11-182025-10-17$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-10-222025-09-25$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-09-122025-08-13$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousesale2025-08-202025-07-11$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-01$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.