FCPT · TickerCove

FCPTFour Corners Property Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Retailas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.06 · now $23.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FCPT has typically landed between $21.10 and $25.25 — a range of −8.5% to +9.5% from the issuance price $23.06.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,706 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-11-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$23.06 · 28% of range

$21.77 low$26.36 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.1%

typical move · IQR 6.9%

−8.5%worst (p90)+9.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FCPT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $23.06 (+0.0%)
typical $23.04 (-0.1%)
middle 50% $22.24–$23.84
90% range $21.1–$25.25

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,706 windows spanning 2015-11-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−57.6%	−57.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−55.4%	−55.9%	+0.6%
2020-02-19	−55.0%	−55.0%	+2.6%
3 best
2020-04-03	+46.2%	+0.0%	+65.0%
2020-03-23	+42.4%	+0.0%	+57.6%
2020-03-20	+38.5%	−4.4%	+50.6%

2,706 overlapping windows · 2015-11-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

64%

+1.6%

n=11

Feb

45%

−0.9%

n=11

Mar

82%

+0.1%

n=11

Apr

45%

+1.7%

n=11

May

64%

+1.0%

n=11

Jun

64%

+2.6%

n=11

Jul

82%

+3.2%

n=11

Aug

55%

+0.1%

n=11

Sep

36%

−2.7%

n=11

Oct

40%

−0.3%

n=10

Nov

70%

+3.4%

n=10

Dec

45%

+3.6%

n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-05	Lenehan William H	director	Purchase	3,961 @ $25.23	$100K	+0.5% of holding	−9.3%	not yet — horizon still open	775,696	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-13	Stewart Niccole	officer	Sale	2,427 @ $25.97	$63K	−9.7% of holding	−6.5%	−19.1%	22,568	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-11	Lenehan William H	director	Purchase	3,924 @ $25.45	$100K	+0.5% of holding	−0.5%	−14.7%	769,769	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06	Lenehan William H	director	Purchase	7,865 @ $25.49	$200K	+1.0% of holding	−4.0%	−14.7%	765,845	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-18	Lenehan William H	director	Purchase	10,080 @ $24.73	$249K	+1.3% of holding	+6.0%	−7.1%	757,980	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17	Steele Toni S	director	Sale	815 @ $24.49	$20K	−3.1% of holding	+4.7%	−10.2%	25,343	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-03	Steele Toni S	director	Sale	838 @ $23.90	$20K	−3.1% of holding	−2.5%	+0.7%	25,829	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-31	HANSEN DOUGLAS B	director	Purchase	1,984 @ $23.64	$47K	+2.6% of holding	−0.1%	+2.9%	78,247	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-16	Stewart Niccole	officer	Sale	3,950 @ $25.30	$100K	−12.6% of holding	−3.7%	+2.6%	27,502	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-12	Lenehan William H	director	Purchase	7,850 @ $25.40	$199K	+1.1% of holding	−6.0%	+1.5%	698,426	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-04	Steele Toni S	director	Sale	778 @ $25.71	$20K	−2.9% of holding	−1.6%	−11.5%	26,346	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-09	MOODY JOHN S	director	Sale	7,667 @ $27.42	$210K	−12.5% of holding	−7.7%	−30.0%	53,821	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-15	Stewart Niccole	officer	Sale	9,100 @ $27.28	$248K	−22.6% of holding	−11.2%	−34.2%	31,204	Form 4 · filed 30 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

287 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Brat James L	officer	Other acquisition	90	137,776	Form 4
2026-09-15	Stewart Niccole	officer	Other acquisition	41	22,872	Form 4
2026-09-15	HANSEN DOUGLAS B	director	Other acquisition	41	86,373	Form 4
2026-09-15	Jemley Charles	director	Other acquisition	245	48,714	Form 4
2026-09-15	Lenehan William H	director	Other acquisition	36	778,387	Form 4
2026-09-15	Lenehan William H	director	Other acquisition	687	779,074	Form 4
2026-09-15	Tennican Elizabeth	director	Other acquisition	178	34,459	Form 4
2026-09-15	Ogilvie Marran H.	director	Other acquisition	309	66,955	Form 4
2026-09-15	Wernig Patrick L.	officer	Other acquisition	317	150,300	Form 4
2026-09-15	Wernig Patrick L.	officer	Other acquisition	143	150,443	Form 4
2026-09-15	Jesuele Barbara Angelica Faylona	director	Other acquisition	118	22,800	Form 4
2026-09-15	Friedland Michael Lawrence	director	Award / grant	37	7,079	Form 4
2026-09-15	Brat James L	officer	Other acquisition	90	137,776	Form 4
2026-09-15	Brat James L	officer	Other acquisition	160	137,936	Form 4
2026-09-15	Steele Toni S	director	Other acquisition	150	31,596	Form 4
2026-09-15	Friedland Michael Lawrence	director	Award / grant	37	7,079	Form 4
2026-09-15	Jemley Charles	director	Other acquisition	245	48,714	Form 4
2026-09-15	Jesuele Barbara Angelica Faylona	director	Other acquisition	118	22,800	Form 4
2026-09-15	Lenehan William H	director	Other acquisition	36	778,387	Form 4
2026-09-15	Lenehan William H	director	Other acquisition	687	779,074	Form 4
2026-09-15	Ogilvie Marran H.	director	Other acquisition	309	66,955	Form 4
2026-09-15	Stewart Niccole	officer	Other acquisition	41	22,872	Form 4
2026-09-15	Steele Toni S	director	Other acquisition	150	31,596	Form 4
2026-09-15	Tennican Elizabeth	director	Other acquisition	178	34,459	Form 4
2026-09-15	Wernig Patrick L.	officer	Other acquisition	317	150,300	Form 4
2026-09-15	Wernig Patrick L.	officer	Other acquisition	143	150,443	Form 4
2026-09-15	Brat James L	officer	Other acquisition	160	137,936	Form 4
2026-08-17	Friedland Michael Lawrence	director	Award / grant	34	7,042	Form 4
2026-08-17	Brat James L	officer	Other acquisition	84	137,536	Form 4
2026-08-17	Brat James L	officer	Other acquisition	150	137,686	Form 4
2026-08-17	Wernig Patrick L.	officer	Other acquisition	296	149,850	Form 4
2026-08-17	Wernig Patrick L.	officer	Other acquisition	133	149,983	Form 4
2026-08-17	Brat James L	officer	Other acquisition	84	137,536	Form 4
2026-08-17	Brat James L	officer	Other acquisition	150	137,686	Form 4
2026-08-17	Stewart Niccole	officer	Other acquisition	38	22,831	Form 4
2026-08-17	Tennican Elizabeth	director	Other acquisition	166	34,281	Form 4
2026-08-17	Ogilvie Marran H.	director	Other acquisition	288	66,646	Form 4
2026-08-17	Jemley Charles	director	Other acquisition	229	48,469	Form 4
2026-08-17	Steele Toni S	director	Other acquisition	140	31,446	Form 4
2026-08-17	HANSEN DOUGLAS B	director	Other acquisition	38	86,332	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i