FCEL · TickerCove

FCELFuelCell Energy, Inc.Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Partsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.50 · now $15.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FCEL has typically landed between $10.33 and $23.79 — a range of −33.4% to +53.5% from the issuance price $15.50.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,000 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$15.5 · 32% of range

$6 low$36.01 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−7.1%

typical move · IQR 29.9%

−33.4%worst (p90)+53.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FCEL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $15.5 (+0.0%)
typical $14.4 (-7.1%)
middle 50% $12.08–$16.72
90% range $10.33–$23.79

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,000 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2019-05-24	−87.6%	−87.6%	+8.0%
2019-05-28	−86.9%	−88.5%	+0.0%
2019-05-30	−85.9%	−87.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-10-29	+372.2%	−7.4%	+372.2%
2020-10-28	+352.8%	−6.5%	+352.8%
2020-10-30	+352.5%	+0.0%	+410.0%

5,000 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−1.7%

n=20

Feb

40%

+3.4%

n=20

Mar

35%

−5.0%

n=20

Apr

35%

+0.1%

n=20

May

70%

+5.0%

n=20

Jun

45%

−8.9%

n=20

Jul

40%

+0.1%

n=20

Aug

25%

−4.3%

n=20

Sep

35%

−1.3%

n=20

Oct

40%

−3.1%

n=20

Nov

35%

+23.9%

n=20

Dec

45%

+13.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Livingston III Homer John	director	Purchase	16,404 @ $15.05	$247K	+62.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	42,747	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16	Livingston III Homer John	director	Purchase	26,343 @ $18.79	$495K	ownership Δ n/a	+26.2%	not yet — horizon still open	26,343	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-06	Achanta Shankar	officer	Sale	2,500 @ $28.71	$72K	−48.8% of holding	−27.0%	not yet — horizon still open	2,618	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-20	Achanta Shankar	officer	Sale	2,500 @ $8.00	$20K	−41.1% of holding	+97.2%	not yet — horizon still open	3,590	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-22	Bingham Betsy B	director	Sale	8,608 @ $8.52	$73K	−100.0% of holding	+15.0%	+116.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

156 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-15	England James Herbert	director	Award / grant	1,451	87,947	Form 4
2026-07-15	Livingston III Homer John	director	Award / grant	833	7,263	Form 4
2026-07-15	Hansen Cynthia L	director	Award / grant	988	63,898	Form 4
2026-06-11	Livingston III Homer John	director	Award / grant	534	534	Form 4
2026-06-11	Livingston III Homer John	director	Award / grant	5,896	6,430	Form 4
2026-05-08	Achanta Shankar	officer	Withheld for tax	492	5,118	Form 4
2026-05-08	Achanta Shankar	officer	Option exercise	2,020	2,020	Form 4
2026-05-08	Achanta Shankar	officer	Option exercise	2,020	5,610	Form 4
2026-04-21	von Althann Natica	director	Option exercise	23,859	23,988	Form 4
2026-04-21	von Althann Natica	director	Option exercise	23,859	0	Form 4
2026-04-21	Bingham Betsy B	director	Option exercise	23,859	0	Form 4
2026-04-21	Bingham Betsy B	director	Option exercise	23,859	23,859	Form 4
2026-04-15	Hansen Cynthia L	director	Award / grant	2,657	62,910	Form 4
2026-04-15	England James Herbert	director	Award / grant	3,902	86,496	Form 4
2026-04-08	Hansen Cynthia L	director	Award / grant	17,424	60,253	Form 4
2026-04-08	England James Herbert	director	Award / grant	17,424	82,594	Form 4
2026-04-08	Bingham Betsy B	director	Award / grant	17,424	18,765	Form 4
2026-04-08	Bingham Betsy B	director	Award / grant	17,424	82,594	Form 4
2026-04-08	HILZINGER MATTHEW F	director	Award / grant	17,424	49,533	Form 4
2026-04-08	von Althann Natica	director	Award / grant	17,424	17,424	Form 4
2026-04-08	Sims Wilson Donna	director	Award / grant	17,424	46,724	Form 4
2026-04-08	Jordan Tyrone Michael	director	Award / grant	17,424	45,407	Form 4
2026-01-23	Schreiber Amanda Justine	officer	Award / grant	49,277	49,277	Form 4
2026-01-15	Hansen Cynthia L	director	Award / grant	2,266	42,829	Form 4
2026-01-15	England James Herbert	director	Award / grant	3,943	65,170	Form 4
2025-12-30	Few Jason	director	Withheld for tax	9,167	71,648	Form 4
2025-12-30	Bishop Michael S.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,562	21,560	Form 4
2025-12-30	Dolger Joshua	officer	Withheld for tax	1,959	11,743	Form 4
2025-12-30	Achanta Shankar	officer	Withheld for tax	1,688	6,090	Form 4
2025-12-30	Bishop Michael S.	officer	Option exercise	11,363	25,122	Form 4
2025-12-30	Dolger Joshua	officer	Option exercise	6,250	13,702	Form 4
2025-12-30	Few Jason	director	Option exercise	29,250	80,815	Form 4
2025-12-30	Achanta Shankar	officer	Option exercise	6,250	7,778	Form 4
2025-12-30	Dolger Joshua	officer	Option exercise	6,250	6,250	Form 4
2025-12-30	Bishop Michael S.	officer	Option exercise	11,363	11,364	Form 4
2025-12-30	Few Jason	director	Option exercise	29,250	29,250	Form 4
2025-12-30	Achanta Shankar	officer	Option exercise	6,250	6,250	Form 4
2025-12-30	Few Jason	director	Option exercise	29,250	29,250	Form 4
2025-12-30	Dolger Joshua	officer	Option exercise	6,250	6,250	Form 4
2025-12-30	Bishop Michael S.	officer	Option exercise	11,363	11,364	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i