Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.81 · now $17.81 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FC has typically landed between $14.77 and $20.87 — a range of −17.0% to +17.2% from the issuance price $17.81.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $17.81 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $17.56 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.42–$18.7
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.77–$20.87
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −63.0% | −63.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −59.9% | −59.9% | +6.3% |
| 2020-02-20 | −56.4% | −62.1% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-18 | +102.6% | +0.0% | +102.6% |
| 2026-03-13 | +99.4% | +0.0% | +102.1% |
| 2026-03-19 | +96.1% | +0.0% | +97.8% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 | Covey Michael Sean Merrill | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $14.68 | $103K | −3.1% of holding | +9.3% | +33.2% | 218,636 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
71 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Walker Paul S | director | Withheld for tax | 4,344 | 136,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Covey Michael Sean Merrill | officer | Withheld for tax | 589 | 225,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Dom Colleen D | officer | Withheld for tax | 535 | 58,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hatch Anthony Derek | officer | Withheld for tax | 306 | 13,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Dom Colleen D | officer | Gift | 1,999 | 59,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Procter Holly | officer | Withheld for tax | 989 | 12,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Procter Holly | officer | Award / grant | 3,385 | 13,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | WHITMAN ROBERT A | director | Gift | 26,258 | 681,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | WHITMAN ROBERT A | director | Gift | 4,834 | 707,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Chow Anne H | director | Award / grant | 5,778 | 20,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Phillips Nancy R | director | Award / grant | 5,778 | 20,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | VAN BEVER DEREK C M | director | Award / grant | 5,778 | 24,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | WHITMAN ROBERT A | director | Award / grant | 5,778 | 712,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | RIVERA EFRAIN | director | Award / grant | 5,778 | 12,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | MCNAMARA DONALD J | director | Award / grant | 5,778 | 459,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Cuffie Craig | director | Award / grant | 5,778 | 16,944 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | WHITMAN ROBERT A | director | Withheld for tax | 6,858 | 709,240 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Walker Paul S | director | Withheld for tax | 4,995 | 136,772 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Walker Paul S | director | Withheld for tax | 3,663 | 141,395 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | WHITMAN ROBERT A | director | Withheld for tax | 2,207 | 707,033 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Walker Paul S | director | Withheld for tax | 1,762 | 139,633 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Walker Paul S | director | Withheld for tax | 1,292 | 138,341 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Covey Michael Sean Merrill | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,466 | 226,845 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Dom Colleen D | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,333 | 61,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Covey Michael Sean Merrill | officer | Withheld for tax | 517 | 226,328 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Dom Colleen D | officer | Withheld for tax | 470 | 61,080 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Hatch Anthony Derek | officer | Withheld for tax | 600 | 14,182 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Hatch Anthony Derek | officer | Withheld for tax | 212 | 13,970 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Procter Holly | officer | Withheld for tax | 131 | 10,341 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Covey Michael Sean Merrill | officer | Award / grant | 3,315 | 228,311 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Dom Colleen D | officer | Award / grant | 3,014 | 62,883 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Hatch Anthony Derek | officer | Award / grant | 1,357 | 14,782 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Walker Paul S | director | Award / grant | 11,299 | 141,767 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Walker Paul S | director | Award / grant | 8,286 | 145,058 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | WHITMAN ROBERT A | director | Award / grant | 14,151 | 716,098 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Betjemann Jessica | officer | Award / grant | 12,406 | 15,342 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Procter Holly | officer | Award / grant | 7,298 | 9,260 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Covey Michael Sean Merrill | officer | Award / grant | 6,568 | 225,204 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Dom Colleen D | officer | Award / grant | 5,108 | 60,018 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Walker Paul S | director | Award / grant | 23,716 | 131,929 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.