FBRX · TickerCove

FBRXForte Biosciences, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-04

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-04 at $76.99 · now $76.99 (2026-08-26, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-04 close, FBRX has typically landed between $51.46 and $118.33 — a range of −33.2% to +53.7% from the issuance price $76.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,328 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-04-13 – 2026-07-28 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 54.0% (90% CI 51.7–56.2%, ≈1,353 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-04 issuance close ($76.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-05, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$76.99 · 100% of range

$10.3 low$76.99 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-08-26 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,353 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

54.0%

90% CI 51.7%–56.2%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.9%

typical move · IQR 25.6%

−33.2%worst (p90)+53.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FBRX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-04 close of $76.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $76.99 (+0.0%)
typical $74.79 (-2.9%)
middle 50% $64.92–$84.66
90% range $51.46–$118.33

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,328 windows spanning 2017-04-13 to 2026-08-26. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2021-09-02	−90.2%	−90.2%	+0.0%
2021-09-01	−90.1%	−90.1%	+0.0%
2021-08-30	−89.9%	−89.9%	+2.0%
3 best
2024-11-05	+489.5%	−1.5%	+489.5%
2020-02-03	+487.4%	−5.9%	+487.4%
2024-11-04	+461.6%	+0.0%	+461.6%

2,328 overlapping windows · 2017-04-13 – 2026-08-26 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

2027-02-28 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Randomized, Double Blind, Placebo-controlled Phase 2 Study in Adults With Celiac Disease (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

33%

−2.1%

n=9

Feb

44%

+10.9%

n=9

Mar

44%

+0.3%

n=9

Apr

44%

−4.6%

n=9

May

50%

−5.3%

n=10

Jun

40%

+3.5%

n=10

Jul

30%

+22.0%

n=10

Aug

60%

+1.4%

n=10

Sep

33%

−10.6%

n=9

Oct

11%

−15.3%

n=9

Nov

56%

+49.5%

n=9

Dec

56%

+4.5%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

300 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Filing
2026-08-27	VINCENT RICHARD G	director	Disposition	18,353	Form 4
2026-08-27	FINCK BARBARA K	director	Disposition	7,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	FINCK BARBARA K	director	Disposition	18,353	Form 4
2026-08-27	Kapoor Shivpreet Singh	director	Disposition	2,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Kapoor Shivpreet Singh	director	Disposition	31,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Kapoor Shivpreet Singh	director	Disposition	18,353	Form 4
2026-08-27	GRYSKA DAVID W	director	Disposition	2,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Riley Antony A	officer	Disposition	14,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Riley Antony A	officer	Disposition	323,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Riley Antony A	officer	Disposition	22,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Wagner Paul A.	director	Code U	85,482	Form 4
2026-08-27	Wagner Paul A.	director	Disposition	16,866	Form 4
2026-08-27	Wagner Paul A.	director	Disposition	5,400	Form 4
2026-08-27	Wagner Paul A.	director	Disposition	11,999	Form 4
2026-08-27	Wagner Paul A.	director	Disposition	44,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Wagner Paul A.	director	Disposition	920,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Wagner Paul A.	director	Disposition	270,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Wagner Paul A.	director	Disposition	500,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Wagner Paul A.	director	Disposition	2,500	Form 4
2026-08-27	Wagner Paul A.	director	Disposition	180,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Wagner Paul A.	director	Disposition	3,511	Form 4
2026-08-27	Kornfeld Steven	director	Code U	3,960	Form 4
2026-08-27	Kornfeld Steven	director	Disposition	1,200	Form 4
2026-08-27	Kornfeld Steven	director	Disposition	800	Form 4
2026-08-27	FINCK BARBARA K	director	Disposition	7,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	FINCK BARBARA K	director	Disposition	31,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	FINCK BARBARA K	director	Disposition	18,353	Form 4
2026-08-27	VINCENT RICHARD G	director	Disposition	2,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	VINCENT RICHARD G	director	Disposition	31,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	VINCENT RICHARD G	director	Disposition	18,353	Form 4
2026-08-27	Riley Antony A	officer	Code U	42,600	Form 4
2026-08-27	Riley Antony A	officer	Disposition	421	Form 4
2026-08-27	Riley Antony A	officer	Disposition	2,999	Form 4
2026-08-27	Riley Antony A	officer	Disposition	1,700	Form 4
2026-08-27	Riley Antony A	officer	Disposition	2,999	Form 4
2026-08-27	Riley Antony A	officer	Disposition	90,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Riley Antony A	officer	Disposition	750	Form 4
2026-08-27	Riley Antony A	officer	Disposition	60,000	Form 4
2026-08-27	Riley Antony A	officer	Disposition	2,976	Form 4
2026-08-27	Doberstein Stephen K	director	Disposition	2,000	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

6d remaining

2026-09-0580% elapsed2026-10-05

Logged immutably 2026-09-05; scored automatically on 2026-10-05 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Pending catalysts

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i