FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.73 · now $7.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FBRT has typically landed between $6.83 and $8.58 — a range of −11.6% to +11.0% from the issuance price $7.73.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,211 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FBRT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$6.83worst · -11.6%$8.58best · +11.0%
  • now $7.73 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.71 (-0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.34–$8.08
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.83–$8.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,211 windows spanning 2021-10-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-08-16−24.6%−24.6%+0.0%
2022-08-17−23.8%−23.8%+0.0%
2022-08-12−21.1%−23.2%+0.0%
3 best
2022-09-29+31.8%+0.0%+31.8%
2022-09-30+30.9%+0.0%+30.9%
2022-10-12+27.4%+0.0%+27.4%

1,211 overlapping windows · 2021-10-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+0.3%
n=5
Feb
40%
−1.8%
n=5
Mar
40%
−1.1%
n=5
Apr
40%
−1.8%
n=5
May
60%
+3.5%
n=5
Jun
60%
−1.0%
n=5
Jul
60%
+2.5%
n=5
Aug
40%
+1.2%
n=5
Sep
0%
−6.0%
n=5
Oct
25%
+4.8%
n=4
Nov
80%
+0.8%
n=5
Dec
20%
−1.1%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$10$82026-06-15: 2 insider purchases, $292K — ORTALE BUFORD H …2026-03-03: 1 insider purchase, $254K — Buffone Brian2026-02-18: 1 insider purchase, $18K — ORTALE BUFORD H2026-02-17: 1 insider purchase, $18K — ORTALE BUFORD H2025-11-21: 1 insider sale, $15K — McDonough Peter J2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $15K2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $35K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $254K2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $292K↑ buys↓ salesdirector ORTALE BUFORD H — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ORTALE BUFORD H — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Buffone Brian — Purchase on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ORTALE BUFORD H — Purchase on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ORTALE BUFORD H — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McDonough Peter J — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-15ORTALE BUFORD HdirectorPurchase25,900 @ $8.44$219K+863.3% of holding+3.0%not yet — horizon still open28,900Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15ORTALE BUFORD HdirectorPurchase3,697 @ $19.75$73K+23.3% of holding+3.0%not yet — horizon still open19,597Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03Buffone BrianofficerPurchase27,000 @ $9.41$254K+12.5% of holding−5.5%−19.7%243,081Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18ORTALE BUFORD HdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $8.77$18K+4.0% of holding+9.1%−14.8%51,851Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17ORTALE BUFORD HdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $8.88$18K+4.2% of holding+6.3%−18.1%49,851Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-21McDonough Peter JdirectorSale1,500 @ $10.00$15K−3.2% of holding−0.4%−23.3%45,926Form 4 · filed same day
2022-09-06ORTALE BUFORD HdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $20.00$200K+169.5% of holding−2.3%+7.8%15,900Form 4 · filed 1380 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

23 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-08Dumars JoedirectorAward / grant12,83539,442Form 4
2026-06-08Tuppeny Elizabeth K.directorAward / grant12,83562,742Form 4
2026-06-08McDonough Peter JdirectorAward / grant12,83558,761Form 4
2026-06-08ORTALE BUFORD HdirectorAward / grant12,83564,686Form 4
2026-06-08Augustine Patsy JosephdirectorAward / grant12,83549,062Form 4
2026-01-27Byrne Richard JdirectorWithheld for tax41,207476,725Form 4
2026-01-27Comparato MichaelofficerWithheld for tax28,584509,871Form 4
2026-01-27Baglien Jerome S.officerWithheld for tax27,264310,014Form 4
2026-01-27Byrne Richard JdirectorAward / grant66,841517,932Form 4
2026-01-27Comparato MichaelofficerAward / grant66,841538,455Form 4
2026-01-27Baglien Jerome S.officerAward / grant100,261337,278Form 4
2025-05-28Dumars JoedirectorAward / grant10,03626,607Form 4
2025-05-28Augustine Patsy JosephdirectorAward / grant10,03636,227Form 4
2025-05-28Tuppeny Elizabeth K.directorAward / grant10,03649,907Form 4
2025-05-28McDonough Peter JdirectorAward / grant10,03647,426Form 4
2025-05-28Handwerker JamiedirectorAward / grant10,03647,444Form 4
2025-05-28ORTALE BUFORD HdirectorAward / grant10,03647,851Form 4
2025-01-27Byrne Richard JdirectorWithheld for tax38,975451,091Form 4
2025-01-27Baglien Jerome S.officerWithheld for tax23,204237,017Form 4
2025-01-27Comparato MichaelofficerWithheld for tax23,113471,614Form 4
2025-01-27Byrne Richard JdirectorAward / grant106,969490,066Form 4
2025-01-27Comparato MichaelofficerAward / grant136,882494,727Form 4
2025-01-27Baglien Jerome S.officerAward / grant91,255260,221Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.