FBPFirst BanCorp.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.65 · now $27.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FBP has typically landed between $24.61 and $31.67 — a range of −11.0% to +14.5% from the issuance price $27.65.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FBP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$24.61worst · -11.0%$31.67best · +14.5%
  • now $27.65 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $28.13 (+1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.6–$29.65
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.61–$31.67
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2010-06-04−68.3%−68.3%+0.0%
2010-06-03−66.7%−66.7%+0.0%
2010-06-07−64.9%−66.7%+0.0%
3 best
2010-12-03+88.6%+0.0%+88.6%
2010-11-30+87.8%+0.0%+99.7%
2010-12-02+84.8%+0.0%+84.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+0.5%
n=20
Feb
55%
−0.1%
n=20
Mar
60%
+1.1%
n=20
Apr
55%
+4.7%
n=20
May
50%
−3.1%
n=20
Jun
50%
−5.2%
n=20
Jul
60%
+4.1%
n=20
Aug
55%
−2.6%
n=20
Sep
30%
−2.9%
n=20
Oct
50%
+0.5%
n=20
Nov
45%
+0.2%
n=20
Dec
65%
+8.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$30$192026-09-02: 1 insider sale, $750K — HERENCIA ROBERTO R2026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $282K — RIVERA NAYDA2026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $296K — RIVERA NAYDA2026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $195K — Diaz-Bento Lilian2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $107K — HERENCIA ROBERTO R2026-01-28: 1 insider sale, $754K — McDonald Michael2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — ALEMAN AURELIO2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $214K — RIVERA NAYDA2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $840K — Kafka Donald2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $2.2M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $754K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $107K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $195K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $578K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $750K↑ buys↓ salesdirector HERENCIA ROBERTO R — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer RIVERA NAYDA — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer RIVERA NAYDA — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Diaz-Bento Lilian — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector HERENCIA ROBERTO R — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer McDonald Michael — Sale on 2026-01-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ALEMAN AURELIO — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer RIVERA NAYDA — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kafka Donald — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02HERENCIA ROBERTO RdirectorSale26,350 @ $28.48$750K−4.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open610,669Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-26RIVERA NAYDAofficerSale10,000 @ $28.19$282K−4.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open230,398Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17RIVERA NAYDAofficerSale10,000 @ $29.59$296K−4.0% of holding−4.0%not yet — horizon still open240,398Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-05Diaz-Bento LilianofficerSale8,000 @ $24.33$195K−12.4% of holding+5.7%not yet — horizon still open56,375Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-11HERENCIA ROBERTO RdirectorSale4,723 @ $22.63$107K−0.7% of holding−4.4%+18.6%637,019Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-28McDonald MichaelofficerSale34,122 @ $22.11$754K−35.2% of holding−1.2%+26.6%62,937Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22ALEMAN AURELIOdirectorSale50,000 @ $22.30$1.1M−4.5% of holding−3.4%−7.0%1,059,547Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-19RIVERA NAYDAofficerSale10,000 @ $21.43$214K−4.2% of holding+1.5%−0.0%230,211Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12Kafka DonaldofficerSale40,000 @ $20.99$840K−38.5% of holding+2.3%+0.5%63,810Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-11ALEMAN AURELIOdirectorSale22,871 @ $20.52$469K−2.0% of holding+5.6%−9.6%1,109,547Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-11HERENCIA ROBERTO RdirectorSale14,738 @ $20.42$301K−2.3% of holding+5.6%−9.6%637,207Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-02RIVERA NAYDAofficerSale10,000 @ $20.20$202K−4.0% of holding−5.1%−23.5%240,211Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-07Power CarlosofficerSale10,321 @ $20.75$214K−5.5% of holding−8.1%−5.5%176,222Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Power CarlosofficerSale45,797 @ $20.77$951K−19.7% of holding−5.6%−5.4%186,543Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

232 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30Berges Gonzalez OrlandoofficerWithheld for tax4,760316,261Form 4
2026-06-30Berges Gonzalez OrlandoofficerWithheld for tax4,523311,738Form 4
2026-06-30Berges Gonzalez OrlandoofficerWithheld for tax2,518321,021Form 4
2026-03-31Eaves PatriciadirectorAward / grant1,87221,651Form 4
2026-03-31Eaves PatriciadirectorWithheld for tax20919,779Form 4
2026-03-21ALEMAN AURELIOdirectorWithheld for tax12,6931,130,475Form 4
2026-03-21RIVERA NAYDAofficerWithheld for tax2,661250,398Form 4
2026-03-21Berges Gonzalez OrlandoofficerWithheld for tax2,479323,539Form 4
2026-03-21Alvarez-Cabrero SaraofficerWithheld for tax1,69484,573Form 4
2026-03-21Lacasa Jose MariaofficerWithheld for tax1,59681,473Form 4
2026-03-21Pavia Juan CarlosofficerWithheld for tax1,47498,870Form 4
2026-03-21Ortiz SaidofficerWithheld for tax1,43648,202Form 4
2026-03-21Diaz-Bento LilianofficerWithheld for tax85364,375Form 4
2026-03-21Lopez-Lay GinorisofficerWithheld for tax796221,389Form 4
2026-03-21McDonald MichaelofficerWithheld for tax79476,170Form 4
2026-03-19ALEMAN AURELIOdirectorAward / grant58,3181,143,168Form 4
2026-03-19Berges Gonzalez OrlandoofficerAward / grant13,980326,018Form 4
2026-03-19RIVERA NAYDAofficerAward / grant13,576253,059Form 4
2026-03-19Pavia Juan CarlosofficerAward / grant11,583100,344Form 4
2026-03-19Lacasa Jose MariaofficerAward / grant10,69383,069Form 4
2026-03-19Alvarez-Cabrero SaraofficerAward / grant9,78186,267Form 4
2026-03-19Diaz-Bento LilianofficerAward / grant9,68965,228Form 4
2026-03-19Ortiz SaidofficerAward / grant9,47149,638Form 4
2026-03-19Lopez-Lay GinorisofficerAward / grant9,228222,185Form 4
2026-03-19McDonald MichaelofficerAward / grant7,61376,964Form 4
2026-03-19McDonald MichaelofficerAward / grant7,61219,449Form 4
2026-03-19ALEMAN AURELIOdirectorAward / grant58,318177,115Form 4
2026-03-19Berges Gonzalez OrlandoofficerAward / grant13,98044,254Form 4
2026-03-19RIVERA NAYDAofficerAward / grant13,57639,328Form 4
2026-03-19Lopez-Lay GinorisofficerAward / grant9,22727,149Form 4
2026-03-19Pavia Juan CarlosofficerAward / grant11,58331,894Form 4
2026-03-19Diaz-Bento LilianofficerAward / grant9,68928,984Form 4
2026-03-19Alvarez-Cabrero SaraofficerAward / grant9,78127,122Form 4
2026-03-19Lacasa Jose MariaofficerAward / grant10,69226,948Form 4
2026-03-16ALEMAN AURELIOdirectorWithheld for tax36,6381,099,420Form 4
2026-03-16ALEMAN AURELIOdirectorWithheld for tax14,5701,084,850Form 4
2026-03-16RIVERA NAYDAofficerWithheld for tax9,770243,510Form 4
2026-03-16Berges Gonzalez OrlandoofficerWithheld for tax9,108315,772Form 4
2026-03-16Lacasa Jose MariaofficerWithheld for tax5,83174,882Form 4
2026-03-16Alvarez-Cabrero SaraofficerWithheld for tax5,79978,978Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.