FBIZ · TickerCove

FBIZFirst Business Financial Services, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $71.66 · now $71.66 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FBIZ has typically landed between $64.23 and $82.92 — a range of −10.4% to +15.7% from the issuance price $71.66.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($71.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$71.66 · 95% of range

$46.62 low$72.85 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.3%

typical move · IQR 11.4%

−10.4%worst (p90)+15.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FBIZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $71.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $71.66 (+0.0%)
typical $72.59 (+1.3%)
middle 50% $68.49–$76.69
90% range $64.23–$82.92

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−48.4%	−48.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−44.7%	−44.7%	+1.7%
2020-02-24	−44.4%	−47.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2010-10-21	+59.1%	+0.0%	+59.1%
2010-10-27	+58.7%	+0.0%	+58.7%
2010-10-26	+58.3%	+0.0%	+58.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

+1.3%

n=20

Feb

55%

+1.7%

n=20

Mar

55%

−1.7%

n=20

Apr

75%

+3.7%

n=20

May

50%

+0.0%

n=20

Jun

60%

+1.4%

n=20

Jul

40%

−0.3%

n=20

Aug

50%

+0.8%

n=20

Sep

60%

+1.9%

n=20

Oct

60%

+1.7%

n=20

Nov

75%

+5.6%

n=20

Dec

40%

−0.8%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-27	Chandler Jodi A	officer	Sale	675 @ $70.19	$47K	−2.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	22,550	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07	Crampton Kevin D	officer	Purchase	71 @ $51.40	$4K	+3.9% of holding	+4.6%	−1.8%	1,892	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-30	Kauten Ralph R.	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $47.80	$478K	+50.6% of holding	+8.3%	+11.2%	29,756	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-30	Graham Jason R	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $47.87	$48K	+45.0% of holding	+8.3%	+11.2%	3,220	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-07	Ovokaitys Daniel	officer	Sale	4,828 @ $54.55	$263K	−38.5% of holding	−7.1%	−19.1%	7,718	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-13	Sanders Carol P	director	Sale	8,211 @ $48.83	$401K	−73.7% of holding	−5.6%	−2.1%	2,925	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-13	Sanders Carol P	director	Sale	670 @ $48.86	$33K	−100.0% of holding	−5.6%	−2.1%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

95 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-16	Ferris Scott M.	director	Award / grant	575	575	Form 4
2026-05-16	Garcia Laura M.	officer	Withheld for tax	194	4,648	Form 4
2026-05-16	Crampton Kevin D	officer	Withheld for tax	54	2,347	Form 4
2026-05-16	Graham Jason R	director	Award / grant	710	3,930	Form 4
2026-05-16	Kilcoyne Gerald L	director	Award / grant	710	66,691	Form 4
2026-05-16	Lorenz William Kent	director	Award / grant	710	9,671	Form 4
2026-05-16	Olszewski Daniel P.	director	Award / grant	710	27,405	Form 4
2026-05-16	Benson Laurie S.	director	Award / grant	710	8,681	Form 4
2026-05-16	CHAMBAS COREY A	director	Award / grant	710	122,790	Form 4
2026-05-16	CHAVARRIA CARLA C	director	Award / grant	710	8,446	Form 4
2026-05-16	Seiler David R.	director	Award / grant	3,815	41,187	Form 4
2026-04-10	CHAMBAS COREY A	director	Withheld for tax	4,875	122,080	Form 4
2026-04-10	Seiler David R.	director	Withheld for tax	1,912	37,372	Form 4
2026-04-10	Spielmann Brian D.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,501	7,311	Form 4
2026-04-10	Ovokaitys Daniel	officer	Withheld for tax	1,143	10,668	Form 4
2026-04-10	Garcia Laura M.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,108	4,842	Form 4
2026-04-10	Quade Bradley A	officer	Withheld for tax	1,096	16,582	Form 4
2026-04-10	Hartlieb James Edward	officer	Withheld for tax	1,039	31,764	Form 4
2026-04-10	Chandler Jodi A	officer	Withheld for tax	834	23,225	Form 4
2026-04-10	CHAMBAS COREY A	director	Award / grant	10,370	126,955	Form 4
2026-04-10	Chandler Jodi A	officer	Award / grant	2,080	24,059	Form 4
2026-04-10	Garcia Laura M.	officer	Award / grant	2,500	5,950	Form 4
2026-04-10	Hartlieb James Edward	officer	Award / grant	2,730	32,803	Form 4
2026-04-10	Ovokaitys Daniel	officer	Award / grant	2,430	11,811	Form 4
2026-04-10	Quade Bradley A	officer	Award / grant	2,740	17,678	Form 4
2026-04-10	Seiler David R.	director	Award / grant	4,780	39,284	Form 4
2026-04-10	Spielmann Brian D.	officer	Award / grant	3,190	8,812	Form 4
2026-04-10	Hartlieb James Edward	officer	Gift	127	31,637	Form 4
2026-04-10	Hartlieb James Edward	officer	Gift	127	31,637	Form 4
2026-02-16	CHAMBAS COREY A	director	Withheld for tax	1,531	116,585	Form 4
2026-02-16	Seiler David R.	director	Withheld for tax	665	34,504	Form 4
2026-02-16	Spielmann Brian D.	officer	Withheld for tax	603	5,622	Form 4
2026-02-16	Quade Bradley A	officer	Withheld for tax	420	14,938	Form 4
2026-02-16	Ovokaitys Daniel	officer	Withheld for tax	406	9,381	Form 4
2026-02-16	Garcia Laura M.	officer	Withheld for tax	398	3,450	Form 4
2026-02-16	Hartlieb James Edward	officer	Withheld for tax	392	30,073	Form 4
2026-02-16	Chandler Jodi A	officer	Withheld for tax	313	21,979	Form 4
2026-02-16	Kristufek Niamh M.	officer	Withheld for tax	254	3,336	Form 4
2026-02-16	Crampton Kevin D	officer	Withheld for tax	101	2,401	Form 4
2026-02-16	Spielmann Brian D.	officer	Award / grant	875	6,225	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i