FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $39.55 · now $39.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FBIN has typically landed between $33.67 and $46.09 — a range of −14.9% to +16.5% from the issuance price $39.55.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,738 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-09-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($39.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FBIN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $39.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$33.67worst · -14.9%$46.09best · +16.5%
  • now $39.55 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $39.24 (-0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.36–$42.12
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.67–$46.09
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,738 windows spanning 2011-09-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−50.8%−50.8%+0.0%
2020-02-20−49.7%−49.8%+0.0%
2020-02-18−49.6%−49.6%+0.5%
3 best
2020-04-03+49.8%+0.0%+49.8%
2020-04-21+43.3%+0.0%+43.3%
2020-04-24+43.2%+0.0%+43.2%

3,738 overlapping windows · 2011-09-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
73%
+3.6%
n=15
Feb
60%
−0.7%
n=15
Mar
53%
−2.3%
n=15
Apr
47%
+0.1%
n=15
May
40%
+1.6%
n=15
Jun
40%
+3.3%
n=15
Jul
60%
+4.9%
n=15
Aug
47%
−0.5%
n=15
Sep
40%
−1.1%
n=15
Oct
53%
+1.8%
n=15
Nov
80%
+4.7%
n=15
Dec
67%
−0.0%
n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$64$332026-08-07: 1 insider purchase, $996K — Singh Jesse G2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $31K — Novak Matthew Edward2026-08-06: 2 insider purchases, $1.0M — Singh Jesse G …2026-06-10: 1 insider purchase, $13.0M — GARDEN EDWARD P2026-05-20: 2 insider purchases, $2.2M — GARDEN EDWARD P …2026-05-19: 1 insider purchase, $13.5M — GARDEN EDWARD P2025-08-29: 1 insider sale, $20K — Novak Matthew Edward2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $89K — Fink Nicholas I.2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Fink Nicholas I.2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $15.7M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $13.0M2026-08: 3 open-market purchases, $2.0M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $31K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Singh Jesse G — Purchase on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Novak Matthew Edward — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Singh Jesse G — Purchase on 2026-08-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Singh Jesse G — Purchase on 2026-08-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector GARDEN EDWARD P — Purchase on 2026-06-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GARDEN EDWARD P — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GARDEN EDWARD P — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed same daydirector GARDEN EDWARD P — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Novak Matthew Edward — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fink Nicholas I. — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fink Nicholas I. — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Singh Jesse GdirectorPurchase19,560 @ $50.93$996K+99.2% of holding−18.5%not yet — horizon still open39,285Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-07Novak Matthew EdwardofficerSale600 @ $51.13$31K−5.5% of holding−18.5%not yet — horizon still open10,250Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-06Singh Jesse GdirectorPurchase14,444 @ $51.46$743Kownership Δ n/a−18.5%not yet — horizon still open14,444Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-06Singh Jesse GdirectorPurchase5,281 @ $52.23$276K+36.6% of holding−18.5%not yet — horizon still open19,725Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-10GARDEN EDWARD PdirectorPurchase320,067 @ $40.60$13.0M+8.8% of holding+20.8%not yet — horizon still open3,940,234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20GARDEN EDWARD PdirectorPurchase57,400 @ $34.89$2.0M+1.6% of holding+18.2%not yet — horizon still open3,620,167Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20GARDEN EDWARD PdirectorPurchase5,900 @ $33.28$196K+0.2% of holding+18.2%not yet — horizon still open3,562,767Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-19GARDEN EDWARD PdirectorPurchase403,000 @ $33.40$13.5M+12.8% of holding+25.9%not yet — horizon still open3,556,867Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-29Novak Matthew EdwardofficerSale342 @ $58.47$20K−9.2% of holding−12.3%−17.3%3,388Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-18Fink Nicholas I.directorSale1,522 @ $58.72$89K−1.5% of holding−5.4%−14.9%97,139Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-15Fink Nicholas I.directorSale29,792 @ $59.04$1.8M−14.2% of holding−2.8%−16.3%180,625Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-04Papesh KristinofficerPurchase483 @ $61.99$30K+6.8% of holding+2.6%−18.0%7,617Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10Wilson RonofficerSale1,500 @ $68.94$103K−13.0% of holding−3.1%−22.6%10,066Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

88 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31Lee John Dong GuofficerWithheld for tax26057,772Form 4
2026-07-31Ries KarenofficerWithheld for tax25710,365Form 4
2026-07-01Singh Jesse GdirectorAward / grant850,000850,000Form 4
2026-07-01Barry David V.officerAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2026-07-01Singh Jesse GdirectorAward / grant300,000300,000Form 4
2026-06-29Finan IrialdirectorAward / grant71128,365Form 4
2026-05-19GARDEN EDWARD PdirectorOther acquisition373,7413,153,867Form 4
2026-05-05Kilsby Susan SdirectorAward / grant4,19127,377Form 4
2026-05-05PUGLIESE STEPHANIE L.directorAward / grant4,19112,223Form 4
2026-05-05Perry Jeffery S.directorAward / grant4,19115,094Form 4
2026-05-05Foley Brendan MdirectorAward / grant4,1916,725Form 4
2026-05-05Chande AmeedirectorAward / grant4,19111,753Form 4
2026-05-05Finan IrialdirectorAward / grant4,19127,654Form 4
2026-05-05MACKAY A D DAVIDdirectorAward / grant4,19129,509Form 4
2026-05-05GARDEN EDWARD PdirectorAward / grant4,7654,765Form 4
2026-05-05HACKETT ANN FdirectorAward / grant4,19141,931Form 4
2026-05-04George Ashley E.officerAward / grant6,82913,106Form 4
2026-03-30Finan IrialdirectorAward / grant1,05823,463Form 4
2026-03-16Ries KarenofficerAward / grant5,67310,622Form 4
2026-03-02Donoghue Hiranda SofficerWithheld for tax5,00731,992Form 4
2026-03-02Lee John Dong GuofficerWithheld for tax4,54558,032Form 4
2026-03-02Papesh KristinofficerWithheld for tax1,75720,991Form 4
2026-03-02Novak Matthew EdwardofficerWithheld for tax1,06510,850Form 4
2026-03-02Ries KarenofficerWithheld for tax2214,949Form 4
2026-02-28Fink Nicholas I.directorWithheld for tax39,340148,127Form 4
2026-02-25Donoghue Hiranda SofficerAward / grant15,36615,366Form 4
2026-02-25Lee John Dong GuofficerAward / grant15,27362,577Form 4
2026-02-25Lee John Dong GuofficerAward / grant18,30618,306Form 4
2026-02-25Ries KarenofficerAward / grant1,2465,170Form 4
2026-02-25Ries KarenofficerAward / grant3,6753,675Form 4
2026-02-25Donoghue Hiranda SofficerAward / grant9,74436,999Form 4
2026-02-25Novak Matthew EdwardofficerAward / grant7,25111,915Form 4
2026-02-25Novak Matthew EdwardofficerAward / grant8,0178,017Form 4
2026-02-25Papesh KristinofficerAward / grant13,59622,748Form 4
2026-02-25Papesh KristinofficerAward / grant13,36213,362Form 4
2026-02-25Baksht JonathanofficerAward / grant18,12841,103Form 4
2026-02-25Baksht JonathanofficerAward / grant26,72426,724Form 4
2026-02-10Donoghue Hiranda SofficerAward / grant7,28927,255Form 4
2026-02-10Novak Matthew EdwardofficerAward / grant1,2764,664Form 4
2026-02-10Papesh KristinofficerAward / grant1,8389,152Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-06-052026-05-07$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-06-052026-05-06$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-06-052026-05-04$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-05-062026-04-24$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-03-102026-02-24$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2025-11-042025-10-31$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2025-11-042025-10-29$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatesale2025-06-142025-05-30$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2025-06-022025-05-29$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-05-082025-04-17$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-04-112025-03-13$15–50K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2025-03-202025-02-17$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2025-03-202025-02-08$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2023-12-092023-11-17$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.