Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.44 · now $2.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FATE has typically landed between $1.58 and $3.63 — a range of −35.2% to +48.8% from the issuance price $2.44.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,237 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-10-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FATE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.44 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.27 (-7.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.9–$2.64
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.58–$3.63
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-12-06 | −72.5% | −72.5% | +0.0% |
| 2022-12-07 | −71.3% | −72.4% | +0.1% |
| 2022-12-08 | −70.1% | −72.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-29 | +129.0% | +0.0% | +129.0% |
| 2026-04-30 | +119.2% | +0.0% | +127.2% |
| 2026-04-08 | +105.9% | +0.0% | +105.9% |
3,237 overlapping windows · 2013-10-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Valamehr Bahram | director | Sale | 43,947 @ $2.46 | $108K | −6.9% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 591,815 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | TAHL CINDY | officer | Sale | 38,800 @ $2.46 | $95K | −6.2% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 589,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Valamehr Bahram | director | Sale | 28,946 @ $1.88 | $54K | −4.4% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 635,762 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | TAHL CINDY | officer | Sale | 25,590 @ $1.88 | $48K | −3.9% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 628,155 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | TAHL CINDY | officer | Sale | 10,589 @ $1.06 | $11K | −2.7% of holding | +4.1% | +175.9% | 387,081 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Valamehr Bahram | director | Sale | 5,190 @ $1.07 | $6K | −1.5% of holding | +4.1% | +175.9% | 329,708 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Valamehr Bahram | director | Sale | 14,466 @ $1.06 | $15K | −4.1% of holding | −7.7% | −0.4% | 334,898 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | TAHL CINDY | officer | Sale | 9,037 @ $1.06 | $10K | −2.2% of holding | −7.7% | −0.4% | 397,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Valamehr Bahram | director | Sale | 8,705 @ $1.54 | $13K | −2.4% of holding | −22.0% | −30.9% | 349,364 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Bressi Jerome Charles | officer | Sale | 5,980 @ $1.55 | $9K | −2.2% of holding | −22.0% | −30.9% | 270,203 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | TAHL CINDY | officer | Sale | 5,654 @ $1.55 | $9K | −1.7% of holding | −22.0% | −30.9% | 336,707 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-20 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Purchase | 397,964 @ $1.68 | $669K | +3.2% of holding | −23.7% | −38.6% | 12,884,277 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-20 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Sale | 341,633 @ $1.68 | $574K | −2.7% of holding | −23.7% | −38.6% | 12,486,313 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
59 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | ABERNETHY MATT | director | Award / grant | 87,900 | 87,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Agarwal Shefali | director | Award / grant | 87,900 | 87,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | EPSTEIN ROBERT S | director | Award / grant | 87,900 | 87,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Lee Michael Stewart | director | Award / grant | 87,900 | 87,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Award / grant | 87,900 | 87,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Hamill Laura | director | Award / grant | 175,800 | 175,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | RASTETTER WILLIAM H | director | Award / grant | 87,900 | 87,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Jooss Karin | director | Award / grant | 87,900 | 87,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Xu Yuan | director | Award / grant | 87,900 | 87,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | TAHL CINDY | officer | Option exercise | 122,220 | 609,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | TAHL CINDY | officer | Option exercise | 44,444 | 653,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | TAHL CINDY | officer | Option exercise | 44,444 | 355,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | TAHL CINDY | officer | Option exercise | 122,220 | 152,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | EPSTEIN ROBERT S | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 36,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | RASTETTER WILLIAM H | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 36,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | EPSTEIN ROBERT S | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | RASTETTER WILLIAM H | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Other acquisition | 8,977,624 | 12,884,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Other acquisition | 162,013 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Other acquisition | 162,013 | 2,755,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Other acquisition | 8,977,624 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Other acquisition | 3,691,324 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Other acquisition | 3,691,324 | 3,893,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Other acquisition | 266,280 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Other acquisition | 266,280 | 502,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | TAHL CINDY | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 487,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | TAHL CINDY | officer | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Valamehr Bahram | director | Award / grant | 335,000 | 664,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Adawi Kamal | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Valamehr Bahram | director | Award / grant | 1,300,000 | 1,300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Adawi Kamal | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Adawi Kamal | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Adawi Kamal | officer | Award / grant | 375,000 | 375,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | RASTETTER WILLIAM H | director | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | MENDLEIN JOHN | director | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Agarwal Shefali | director | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | ABERNETHY MATT | director | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | EPSTEIN ROBERT S | director | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Lee Michael Stewart | director | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.