FASTFastenal CompanyIndustrials · Industrial - Distributionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $49.03 · now $49.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FAST has typically landed between $44.38 and $54.63 — a range of −9.5% to +11.4% from the issuance price $49.03.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($49.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FAST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $49.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$44.38worst · -9.5%$54.63best · +11.4%
  • now $49.03 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $49.93 (+1.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $47.69–$52.16
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $44.38–$54.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-25−38.3%−38.3%+0.0%
2008-09-26−36.7%−36.7%+0.0%
2008-09-16−36.4%−36.4%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-06+41.4%−0.9%+41.4%
2009-03-05+37.3%−3.1%+37.3%
2009-03-09+37.2%+0.0%+42.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$54.0B
market cap
$1.18
EPS (TTM)
39.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-14
next earnings
Revenue$8.2B
'20'25
Net income$1.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr31.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.11
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $49.03$26.47$57.11
  • DCF (intrinsic)$28.58
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$36.17
  • Analyst target · range $42.00–$55.00$47.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$49.03

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.1%
n=18
Feb
74%
+2.7%
n=19
Mar
79%
+4.2%
n=19
Apr
58%
+1.2%
n=19
May
37%
−1.4%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.0%
n=19
Jul
53%
+3.7%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Sep
32%
+0.6%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.3%
n=18
Nov
72%
+5.0%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$52$392026-08-13: 2 insider sales, $476K — Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen …2026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $156K — Ancius Michael J2026-08-05: 2 insider sales, $1.8M — Heise Rita J. …2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $147K — Ancius Michael J2026-03-05: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Wisecup Reyne K2026-01-23: 1 insider sale, $705K — SATTERLEE SCOTT2025-11-19: 1 insider purchase, $40K — Nielsen Sarah N2025-11-17: 1 insider purchase, $40K — Johnson Daniel L.2025-11-13: 1 insider purchase, $50K — HSU Hsenghung Sam2025-11-12: 1 insider purchase, $41K — Eastman Stephen L.2025-10-16: 1 insider purchase, $42K — HSU Hsenghung Sam2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $333K — Drazkowski William Joseph2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $4.1M — FLORNESS DANIEL L2025-08: 5 open-market sales, $8.4M2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $42K2025-11: 4 open-market purchases, $170K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $705K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $147K2026-08: 5 open-market sales, $2.4M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Ancius Michael J — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Heise Rita J. — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Heise Rita J. — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ancius Michael J — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Wisecup Reyne K — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SATTERLEE SCOTT — Sale on 2026-01-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Nielsen Sarah N — Purchase on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Johnson Daniel L. — Purchase on 2025-11-17, filed 4 days after the tradedirector HSU Hsenghung Sam — Purchase on 2025-11-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Eastman Stephen L. — Purchase on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HSU Hsenghung Sam — Purchase on 2025-10-16, filed same dayofficer Drazkowski William Joseph — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector FLORNESS DANIEL L — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenofficerSale7,894 @ $51.38$406K−100.0% of holding−1.5%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-13Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenofficerSale1,364 @ $51.42$70K−100.0% of holding−1.5%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ancius Michael JdirectorSale3,000 @ $52.00$156K−4.9% of holding−5.1%not yet — horizon still open58,690Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05Heise Rita J.directorSale24,964 @ $50.05$1.2M−55.5% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open20,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05Heise Rita J.directorSale10,000 @ $50.05$501K−33.3% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open20,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28Ancius Michael JdirectorSale3,000 @ $49.00$147K−4.9% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open58,690Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05Wisecup Reyne KdirectorSale36,920 @ $47.34$1.7M−48.0% of holding+0.0%−9.5%40,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-23SATTERLEE SCOTTdirectorSale15,964 @ $44.19$705K−24.2% of holding+4.4%+1.3%50,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-19Nielsen Sarah NdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $39.60$40K+25.0% of holding+4.1%−0.8%5,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-17Johnson Daniel L.directorPurchase1,000 @ $40.44$40K+4.7% of holding+4.6%−0.8%22,190Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-13HSU Hsenghung SamdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $49.58$50K+11.1% of holding+3.2%−1.4%10,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Eastman Stephen L.directorPurchase1,000 @ $40.82$41K+5.0% of holding+2.8%−2.0%21,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-16HSU Hsenghung SamdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $42.45$42K+12.5% of holding−4.8%+1.9%9,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-15Drazkowski William JosephofficerSale6,842 @ $48.67$333K−36.3% of holding−5.9%−12.2%11,994Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-12FLORNESS DANIEL LdirectorSale84,612 @ $48.44$4.1M−13.0% of holding−4.7%−10.2%565,036Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08Soderberg John LewisofficerSale34,612 @ $48.03$1.7M−100.0% of holding−2.3%−11.5%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-08Watts Jeffery MichaelofficerSale32,724 @ $48.05$1.6M−73.4% of holding−2.3%−11.5%11,880Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-08Watts Jeffery MichaelofficerSale16,000 @ $48.05$769K−57.4% of holding−2.3%−11.5%11,880Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-24Broersma Anthony PaulofficerSale8,648 @ $47.92$414K−100.0% of holding+3.9%−16.8%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-24Broersma Anthony PaulofficerSale4,934 @ $47.94$237K−100.0% of holding+3.9%−16.8%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-17Lisowski Sheryl AnnofficerSale12,000 @ $45.22$543K−54.1% of holding+4.6%−15.0%10,192Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-17Lisowski Sheryl AnnofficerSale5,052 @ $45.20$228K−33.1% of holding+4.6%−15.0%10,192Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-17Lisowski Sheryl AnnofficerSale4,000 @ $45.21$181K−28.2% of holding+4.6%−15.0%10,192Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-05Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenofficerSale1,592 @ $41.24$66K−100.0% of holding−1.3%−14.1%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-05Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenofficerSale1,364 @ $41.30$56K−100.0% of holding−1.3%−14.1%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Soderberg John LewisofficerSale16,362 @ $82.45$1.3M−100.0% of holding−0.5%−15.4%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-06SATTERLEE SCOTTdirectorSale9,670 @ $79.51$769K−27.9% of holding−0.8%−15.2%25,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-25Broersma Anthony PaulofficerSale4,772 @ $81.18$387K−100.0% of holding−4.2%−17.0%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-25Broersma Anthony PaulofficerSale796 @ $81.21$65K−100.0% of holding−4.2%−17.0%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-24FLORNESS DANIEL LdirectorSale50,000 @ $82.12$4.1M−15.0% of holding−6.4%−17.8%282,518Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-14Drazkowski William JosephofficerSale15,000 @ $81.31$1.2M−71.4% of holding−9.4%−17.3%5,997Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-14Miller Charles S.officerPurchase20 @ $39.15$783+100.0% of holding−9.4%−17.3%40Form 4 · filed 288 days after the trade
2025-04-07Miller Charles S.officerPurchase20 @ $39.15$783ownership Δ n/a−1.9%−0.6%20Form 4 · filed 295 days after the trade
2025-03-14Lewis HoldenofficerSale23,076 @ $75.00$1.7M−69.6% of holding+11.9%+10.1%10,097Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Lewis HoldenofficerSale15,798 @ $74.98$1.2M−61.0% of holding+11.9%+10.1%10,097Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Lewis HoldenofficerSale10,000 @ $74.95$750K−49.8% of holding+11.9%+10.1%10,097Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Lewis HoldenofficerSale9,854 @ $74.96$739K−49.4% of holding+11.9%+10.1%10,097Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Lewis HoldenofficerSale6,241 @ $74.94$468K−38.2% of holding+11.9%+10.1%10,097Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Lewis HoldenofficerSale3,695 @ $74.92$277K−26.8% of holding+11.9%+10.1%10,097Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

114 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenofficerOption exercise7,8947,894Form 4
2026-08-13Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenofficerOption exercise1,3641,364Form 4
2026-08-13Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenofficerOption exercise7,8940Form 4
2026-08-13Ancius Michael JdirectorGift40058,290Form 4
2026-08-13Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenofficerOption exercise1,3640Form 4
2026-08-10Ancius Michael JdirectorOption exercise3,00061,690Form 4
2026-08-10Ancius Michael JdirectorOption exercise3,0004,448Form 4
2026-08-05Heise Rita J.directorOption exercise24,96444,964Form 4
2026-08-05Heise Rita J.directorOption exercise10,00030,000Form 4
2026-08-05Heise Rita J.directorOption exercise10,0000Form 4
2026-08-05Heise Rita J.directorOption exercise24,9640Form 4
2026-07-28Ancius Michael JdirectorOption exercise3,00061,690Form 4
2026-07-28Ancius Michael JdirectorOption exercise3,0007,448Form 4
2026-04-24Ancius Michael JdirectorOption exercise1,00058,690Form 4
2026-04-24Ancius Michael JdirectorOption exercise1,00010,448Form 4
2026-03-05Wisecup Reyne KdirectorOption exercise36,92076,920Form 4
2026-03-05Wisecup Reyne KdirectorOption exercise36,9200Form 4
2026-01-23SATTERLEE SCOTTdirectorOption exercise15,96465,964Form 4
2026-01-23SATTERLEE SCOTTdirectorOption exercise15,9649,000Form 4
2026-01-02Ancius Michael JdirectorAward / grant23,47423,474Form 4
2026-01-02Heise Rita J.directorAward / grant23,47423,474Form 4
2026-01-02Ericson Brady DdirectorAward / grant23,47423,474Form 4
2026-01-02SATTERLEE SCOTTdirectorAward / grant17,60517,605Form 4
2026-01-02HSU Hsenghung SamdirectorAward / grant16,43116,431Form 4
2026-01-02Quarshie Irene AyeleydirectorAward / grant15,25815,258Form 4
2026-01-02Nielsen Sarah NdirectorAward / grant14,08414,084Form 4
2026-01-02Eastman Stephen L.directorAward / grant11,73711,737Form 4
2026-01-02Wisecup Reyne KdirectorAward / grant11,73711,737Form 4
2026-01-02Drazkowski William JosephofficerAward / grant31,09731,097Form 4
2026-01-02Watts Jeffery MichaelofficerAward / grant60,97560,975Form 4
2026-01-02Soderberg John LewisofficerAward / grant24,39024,390Form 4
2026-01-02Oas Noelle JoanofficerAward / grant17,56017,560Form 4
2026-01-02Jansen James CofficerAward / grant17,56017,560Form 4
2026-01-02Broersma Anthony PaulofficerAward / grant17,56017,560Form 4
2026-01-02FLORNESS DANIEL LdirectorAward / grant83,36583,365Form 4
2026-01-02Lisowski Sheryl AnnofficerAward / grant17,56017,560Form 4
2026-01-02Miller Charles S.officerAward / grant35,67035,670Form 4
2026-01-02Papenfuss Donnalee KathleenofficerAward / grant13,71913,719Form 4
2026-01-02Tunnicliff Max HughesofficerAward / grant28,84128,841Form 4
2025-12-12Ancius Michael JdirectorOption exercise1,50057,690Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Sheri BiggsHousesale2025-10-052025-03-19$15–50K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2025-05-142025-04-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-12-052024-11-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-05$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2024-07-092024-06-21$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2024-05-152024-04-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-02-052024-01-10$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.