FAFFirst American Financial CorporationFinancial Services · Insurance - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $71.11 · now $71.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FAF has typically landed between $62.48 and $79.78 — a range of −12.1% to +12.2% from the issuance price $71.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,083 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-05-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($71.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FAF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $71.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$62.48worst · -12.1%$79.78best · +12.2%
  • now $71.11 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $71.7 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $68.19–$75.22
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $62.48–$79.78
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,083 windows spanning 2010-05-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−49.2%−49.2%+1.8%
2020-02-21−46.2%−48.6%+3.0%
2020-02-20−46.2%−48.7%+2.9%
3 best
2020-03-18+34.8%+0.0%+42.2%
2011-11-25+24.0%+0.0%+24.0%
2026-03-25+21.4%−0.2%+21.4%

4,083 overlapping windows · 2010-05-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
69%
+2.9%
n=16
Feb
69%
+0.7%
n=16
Mar
69%
+0.2%
n=16
Apr
56%
+0.8%
n=16
May
56%
−0.5%
n=16
Jun
59%
+0.3%
n=17
Jul
88%
+7.0%
n=17
Aug
65%
+0.7%
n=17
Sep
41%
−1.6%
n=17
Oct
44%
−0.1%
n=16
Nov
88%
+4.6%
n=16
Dec
56%
+0.7%
n=16

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$79$562026-07-24: 2 insider sales, $244K — Adams Steven A …2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $400K — Cornehl Lisa W2026-04-24: 1 insider sale, $468K — McCarthy Margaret M2026-02-17: 2 insider purchases, $3.0M — KENNEDY PARKER S …2026-02-13: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — KENNEDY PARKER S2025-08-28: 1 insider sale, $501K — DOTI JAMES L2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $230K — McCarthy Margaret M2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $731K2026-02: 3 open-market purchases, $4.1M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $468K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $400K2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $244K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Adams Steven A — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Adams Steven A — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Cornehl Lisa W — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McCarthy Margaret M — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector KENNEDY PARKER S — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KENNEDY PARKER S — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KENNEDY PARKER S — Purchase on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradedirector DOTI JAMES L — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McCarthy Margaret M — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24Adams Steven AofficerSale3,253 @ $74.99$244K−24.1% of holding−7.1%not yet — horizon still open10,234Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-24Adams Steven AofficerSale0 @ $75.43$0−0.0% of holding−7.1%not yet — horizon still open10,234Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-05Cornehl Lisa WofficerSale5,823 @ $68.63$400K−16.4% of holding−8.2%not yet — horizon still open29,635Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-24McCarthy Margaret MdirectorSale6,630 @ $70.59$468K−21.6% of holding−9.0%not yet — horizon still open24,024Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-17KENNEDY PARKER SdirectorPurchase30,000 @ $67.92$2.0M+13.5% of holding−2.0%−4.7%251,552Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17KENNEDY PARKER SdirectorPurchase14,841 @ $67.70$1.0M+7.2% of holding−2.0%−4.7%221,552Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-13KENNEDY PARKER SdirectorPurchase15,000 @ $67.17$1.0M+7.8% of holding+1.4%−3.3%206,711Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-28DOTI JAMES LdirectorSale7,692 @ $65.17$501K−10.0% of holding−4.1%+2.9%69,091Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13McCarthy Margaret MdirectorSale3,500 @ $65.63$230K−11.1% of holding+0.2%−4.5%28,095Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25Seaton Mark EdwarddirectorSale37,321 @ $65.27$2.4M−19.1% of holding+5.7%−5.8%158,491Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25Cornehl Lisa WofficerSale3,057 @ $65.49$200K−11.4% of holding+5.7%−5.8%23,825Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24Seaton Mark EdwarddirectorSale12,679 @ $64.28$815K−6.1% of holding+7.1%−2.4%195,812Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-14GILMORE DENNIS JdirectorSale110,145 @ $63.59$7.0M−18.2% of holding+10.9%−3.9%496,400Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14GILMORE DENNIS JdirectorSale1,826 @ $64.13$117K−0.4% of holding+10.9%−3.9%494,574Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

77 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-22Seaton Mark EdwarddirectorWithheld for tax2,372232,081Form 4
2026-06-22Wajner Matthew F.officerWithheld for tax61952,997Form 4
2026-06-22Cornehl Lisa WofficerWithheld for tax16029,656Form 4
2026-06-22GILMORE DENNIS JdirectorAward / grant14,570477,031Form 4
2026-04-29GILMORE DENNIS JdirectorDisposition13,311462,441Form 4
2026-02-24Seaton Mark EdwarddirectorWithheld for tax5,323231,745Form 4
2026-02-24Cornehl Lisa WofficerWithheld for tax1,75335,279Form 4
2026-02-24Wajner Matthew F.officerWithheld for tax67053,234Form 4
2026-02-24Adams Steven AofficerWithheld for tax38113,107Form 4
2026-02-23Seaton Mark EdwarddirectorWithheld for tax7,030237,068Form 4
2026-02-23Cornehl Lisa WofficerWithheld for tax1,56337,032Form 4
2026-02-23Wajner Matthew F.officerWithheld for tax83553,904Form 4
2026-02-23Adams Steven AofficerWithheld for tax50913,488Form 4
2026-02-19Seaton Mark EdwarddirectorAward / grant65,084244,098Form 4
2026-02-19Cornehl Lisa WofficerAward / grant12,07638,595Form 4
2026-02-19Adams Steven AofficerAward / grant3,35113,997Form 4
2026-02-19DAILEY JEFFREY JdirectorAward / grant2,4182,824Form 4
2026-02-19DOTI JAMES LdirectorAward / grant2,41871,597Form 4
2026-02-19OMAN MARK CdirectorAward / grant2,41853,394Form 4
2026-02-19KENNEDY PARKER SdirectorAward / grant2,418253,970Form 4
2026-02-19MCKEE MICHAEL DdirectorAward / grant2,41856,063Form 4
2026-02-19Wahl DeborahdirectorAward / grant2,4185,756Form 4
2026-02-19Wajner Matthew F.officerAward / grant16,21054,739Form 4
2026-02-19GILMORE DENNIS JdirectorAward / grant2,418475,622Form 4
2026-02-19McCarthy Margaret MdirectorAward / grant2,41830,608Form 4
2026-02-19GILYARD REGINALD HAROLDdirectorAward / grant2,41825,127Form 4
2026-02-19Spence Marsha AdirectorAward / grant2,4189,530Form 4
2026-02-17Seaton Mark EdwarddirectorWithheld for tax13,658179,014Form 4
2026-02-17Cornehl Lisa WofficerWithheld for tax3,72226,519Form 4
2026-02-17Wajner Matthew F.officerWithheld for tax2,17438,529Form 4
2026-02-17Adams Steven AofficerWithheld for tax1,19010,646Form 4
2026-02-04Cornehl Lisa WofficerAward / grant4,98230,241Form 4
2026-02-04Wajner Matthew F.officerAward / grant2,73540,703Form 4
2026-02-04Seaton Mark EdwarddirectorAward / grant17,460192,672Form 4
2026-02-04Adams Steven AofficerAward / grant2,05011,836Form 4
2025-12-22DAILEY JEFFREY JdirectorAward / grant406406Form 4
2025-12-03GILMORE DENNIS JdirectorGift15,743473,070Form 4
2025-11-10KENNEDY PARKER SdirectorGift2,9502,165,546Form 4
2025-06-20Cornehl Lisa WofficerAward / grant86524,970Form 4
2025-06-20Wajner Matthew F.officerAward / grant3,33137,793Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.