FAFirst Advantage CorporationIndustrials · Specialty Business Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.56 · now $21.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FA has typically landed between $18.19 and $25.66 — a range of −15.6% to +19.0% from the issuance price $21.56.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,293 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$18.19worst · -15.6%$25.66best · +19.0%
  • now $21.56 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.57 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.11–$23.04
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.19–$25.66
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,293 windows spanning 2021-06-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-01-22−39.5%−39.5%+0.0%
2026-01-14−36.1%−36.1%+1.5%
2025-02-11−36.1%−36.1%+1.0%
3 best
2026-04-10+46.8%+0.0%+46.8%
2026-04-09+43.1%−2.0%+43.1%
2026-06-17+41.2%+0.0%+41.5%

1,293 overlapping windows · 2021-06-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−2.4%
n=5
Feb
20%
−8.0%
n=5
Mar
60%
+4.2%
n=5
Apr
60%
−2.6%
n=5
May
60%
+6.9%
n=5
Jun
60%
+2.1%
n=5
Jul
67%
+4.6%
n=6
Aug
67%
+4.9%
n=6
Sep
33%
−4.0%
n=6
Oct
20%
−4.9%
n=5
Nov
60%
+4.5%
n=5
Dec
60%
+3.3%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$24$92026-08-12: 1 insider sale, $275.2M — SLTA V (GP), L.L.C.2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $77K — Clark James Lindsey2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $418K — Jardine Bret T2026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $11K — Jardine Bret T2026-05-07: 1 insider sale, $350K — Smith Joelle M2026-03-05: 1 insider sale, $7K — Jardine Bret T2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $13K — Jardine Bret T2026-03-02: 1 insider purchase, $107K — Nairne Douglas2025-11-17: 1 insider sale, $13K — Jardine Bret T2025-09-17: 1 insider sale, $155K — Smith Joelle M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $155K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $13K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $107K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $21K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $361K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $495K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $275.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector SLTA V (GP), L.L.C. — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Clark James Lindsey — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Jardine Bret T — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Jardine Bret T — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Smith Joelle M — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jardine Bret T — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jardine Bret T — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Nairne Douglas — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jardine Bret T — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Smith Joelle M — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-12SLTA V (GP), L.L.C.directorSale12,500,000 @ $22.02$275.2M−14.0% of holding+2.2%not yet — horizon still open77,057,840Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08Clark James LindseydirectorSale4,921 @ $15.69$77K−8.0% of holding+21.1%not yet — horizon still open56,844Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01Jardine Bret TofficerSale25,000 @ $16.71$418K−78.1% of holding+12.2%not yet — horizon still open7,008Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-12Jardine Bret TofficerSale682 @ $16.12$11K−8.9% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open7,008Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07Smith Joelle MofficerSale23,334 @ $15.00$350K−54.6% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open19,393Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05Jardine Bret TofficerSale600 @ $12.09$7K−7.9% of holding−5.0%+58.8%7,008Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04Jardine Bret TofficerSale1,090 @ $12.32$13K−13.5% of holding−4.1%+52.0%7,008Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Nairne DouglasofficerPurchase9,000 @ $11.86$107K+24.8% of holding+5.0%+66.4%45,257Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-17Jardine Bret TofficerSale954 @ $13.13$13K−12.3% of holding+17.5%+10.3%6,825Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-17Smith Joelle MofficerSale9,900 @ $15.70$155K−18.8% of holding−10.3%−30.3%42,727Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09Clark James LindseydirectorSale4,482 @ $18.32$82K−8.4% of holding−9.7%−41.0%48,960Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02Smith Joelle MofficerSale45,934 @ $16.99$781K−51.8% of holding−7.8%−35.4%42,727Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12Jardine Bret TofficerSale146 @ $18.18$3K−2.1% of holding−1.7%−45.6%6,666Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07Marks Steven IrwinofficerPurchase1,000 @ $13.50$14K+5.2% of holding+12.2%+7.9%20,189Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-05Jardine Bret TofficerSale139 @ $13.78$2K−2.2% of holding+12.3%+1.9%6,132Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

106 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-12SLTA V (GP), L.L.C.directorOther acquisition4,028,84273,028,998Form 4
2026-06-05Price Bridgett RdirectorAward / grant12,80562,572Form 4
2026-06-05Sim JudithdirectorAward / grant12,80573,950Form 4
2026-06-05Bell Susan R.directorAward / grant12,80573,950Form 4
2026-06-05Clark James LindseydirectorAward / grant12,80561,765Form 4
2026-06-01Jardine Bret TofficerOption exercise25,00032,008Form 4
2026-06-01Jardine Bret TofficerOption exercise25,00095,186Form 4
2026-05-11Smith Joelle MofficerWithheld for tax6,97437,324Form 4
2026-05-11Jardine Bret TofficerWithheld for tax2947,690Form 4
2026-05-11Nairne DouglasofficerOption exercise715716Form 4
2026-05-11Jardine Bret TofficerOption exercise976976Form 4
2026-05-11Smith Joelle MofficerOption exercise24,9050Form 4
2026-05-11Smith Joelle MofficerOption exercise24,90544,298Form 4
2026-05-11Nairne DouglasofficerOption exercise71547,457Form 4
2026-05-11Jardine Bret TofficerOption exercise9767,984Form 4
2026-05-11Smith Joelle MofficerOption exercise24,90544,298Form 4
2026-05-11Nairne DouglasofficerOption exercise71547,457Form 4
2026-03-04Jardine Bret TofficerWithheld for tax3297,608Form 4
2026-03-04Nairne DouglasofficerOption exercise7431,486Form 4
2026-03-04Jardine Bret TofficerOption exercise9291,857Form 4
2026-03-04Jardine Bret TofficerOption exercise9297,937Form 4
2026-03-04Nairne DouglasofficerOption exercise74346,742Form 4
2026-03-04Nairne DouglasofficerOption exercise74346,742Form 4
2026-03-04Jardine Bret TofficerOption exercise9297,937Form 4
2026-03-03Jardine Bret TofficerWithheld for tax5968,098Form 4
2026-03-03Jardine Bret TofficerOption exercise1,6865,060Form 4
2026-03-03Jardine Bret TofficerOption exercise1,6868,694Form 4
2026-03-03Jardine Bret TofficerOption exercise1,6868,694Form 4
2026-03-02Marks Steven IrwinofficerAward / grant162,272162,272Form 4
2026-03-02Jardine Bret TofficerAward / grant27,47827,478Form 4
2026-03-02Jardine Bret TofficerAward / grant40,56840,568Form 4
2026-03-02Nairne DouglasofficerAward / grant162,272162,272Form 4
2026-03-02Staples ScottdirectorAward / grant274,776274,776Form 4
2026-03-02Staples ScottdirectorAward / grant405,680405,680Form 4
2026-03-02Smith Joelle MofficerAward / grant164,866164,866Form 4
2026-03-02Smith Joelle MofficerAward / grant243,408243,408Form 4
2026-03-02Nairne DouglasofficerAward / grant109,911109,911Form 4
2026-03-02Marks Steven IrwinofficerAward / grant109,911109,911Form 4
2026-02-28Marks Steven IrwinofficerWithheld for tax1,67534,201Form 4
2026-02-28Marks Steven IrwinofficerOption exercise1,1460Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.